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Stocks Lesson(s) Learnt
Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2008 Posts: 503
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@ Young,why italicise,bold and cap your posts. Its painful in this bear market
beware the irrational exuberance on the NSE
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/2/2008 Posts: 109
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IF AN AWARD WAS TO BE GIVEN,I WILL PLACE MY VOTE ON YOUNG. HE'S BEEN SO CAREFUL ON HIS ADVICES UNLIKE SOME DUDES HERE.........
ANYWAY THANK YOUNG AND JAH BLESS!!
Life is short,enjoy to the fullest,But only AFTER investing
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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You should always know that your emotion doesn't control the market,instead the market affects your emotion. All the best A likely impossibility is always preferable to an unconvincing posibility. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/8/2007 Posts: 10
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I give credance to young and in support of his advise I copy paste an article I have just read,heed so you may not loose all:
'Benjamin Graham,Warren Buffett's mentor,is the famous father of value investing. Among his many brilliant observations is that the markets are a voting machine over the short term but a weighing machine over the long term. Over the short term traders 'vote' their emotions by buying or selling,sometimes resulting in wild and irrational stock prices. But over the long term stocks are truly weighed and will ultimately reflect their fundamental value to create earnings for their shareholders.
With stocks 'voted' down to ridiculously low levels through highly emotional panic selling,great opportunities exist today for investors and speculators. Even though we are deep in a secular bear,this current cyclical bear has driven stocks down near the bottom part of this cyclical bear. While the SPX could fall lower still,it isn't likely to go much lower than 800 before a big cyclical bull erupts that should eventually drive a double in this index. You can invest now when prices are artificially low.
For speculators,this incredible fear that drove such bear extremes cannot persist. And when it yields,after everyone who is going to sell has sold,the resulting V-bounce and bear rally should be massive. Since there is often symmetry between the size and sharpness of the preceding downleg and the resulting rally,we should be in for a big one. While tough to time,speculators long when this erupts will make a killing.
As life-long investors and speculators ourselves at Zeal,we have been hit hard by this brutal selloff too. Companies in sectors that have done really well in previous bears,mainly commodities,have been beaten into pulps this time around. Nevertheless,despite all of the short-term pain it is essential to maintain perspective and keep the long view. This selloff,like all before it,shall pass as well.
The bottom line is this incredible recent selloff has indeed been largely unprecedented in market history. It was compressed into a lot shorter period of time than normal,even for a major cyclical bear. Nevertheless,even this fear is finite and has to soon burn itself out. All bears ebb and flow and this one will be no exception. Don't make the mistake of extrapolating the present into infinity. It never works in the markets.
While it is awfully hard to buy when everyone thinks it is lunacy,that the markets are going to spiral lower indefinitely,this is the time when fortunes are made. It is not often that an irrational selling frenzy drives virtually every stock you've ever been interested in owning to multi-year or even multi-decade lows. Brave contrarians willing to buy into this fear are going to reap fortunes as the markets recover.'
Good Luck
Raheel
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Yes,unless you buy a 100 shares every time,its unlikely you'll be able to average down every other week. Instead keep the cash handy,stay very close to your broker's office and know your share's price. www.mjengakenya.blogspot.comSehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/22/2008 Posts: 1
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Biggest lessons learned with this meltdown?
Never,ever,ever trade with other people's money. Trade only with money you can afford to lose i.e. your own cash money and if you lose it all then you can still feed your family and pay rent. Never rush despite what your broker tells you i.e. 'time is now... if you wait you will miss the gravy train...' Never stress yourself again! The stress I have experienced over the past week is enough to light up Nairobi for a month if it were to be converted to power! Its just not worth it. Life is too short to worry about how much will KQ open with tomorrow!
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2008 Posts: 17
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My lesson: human beings are irrational,international investors can screw things up,and hey stop kidding,the people who manipulated equity have finally dumped the damn stock. watch the free fall,just like EA cables. They are shopping for the new 'equity'. Watch the bear all till end of dec.
When I die,I want to die like my grandfather–who died peacefully in his sleep. Not screaming like all the passengers in his car
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/25/2008 Posts: 1
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All those six points were useful. Good thought / research. Can i have your opinion about investing in stock market after the wall street issues? http://www.myinvestorsplace.com/
http://www.myinvestorsplace.com/
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/3/2007 Posts: 10
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There's no expert in stocks. Fundamentals are just that-Fundamentals! they wont be able to save you during a meltdown. Trust your gut and your eyes. I'd give the example of Crown Berger. One Friday afternoon,it dropped till 26. I wasnt aware of this. On Sat,I'd purposed to buy Safcom. I opted to buy Crown. Lesson: dont be too rigid. Change with the market. Buy and sell. Hold at your peril. Access Kenya has dropped to 18 bob. I bought it at 15. I should have sold it when it was stuck between 30-34 and come back now and buy double the number of shares. Buy the least discussed stocks eg City Trust. They seem to do well when other stocks are down.
Kind Regards.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/4/2008 Posts: 48
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learn't to listen/study folk in Sk Learn something new everyday Learn Something New Every Day!
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/15/2006 Posts: 1
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Kazi ya kujistress with prices imeisha. Fortunately am young,if i was in my old age how would i explain a 40% loss. But on a positive note i guess patience is the key to investing in the stock mrkt and more so informatn is as important as the amount you wish to invest. Listen to sk mem they av savd me many tims
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/28/2008 Posts: 2
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During the bearish cycle,we need to bear in mind the wisdom of the richest value investor,Warren Buffet. For him,when everybody else is moaning,hes all smiles because the meltdown presents the best opportunity to invest. He has alreadt invested 10billion dollars in wallstreet since the madness began.
His advice when investing,(1) do you understand the bss the company is in? (2) will the coy be in bss in the next 10 years plus?,(3) is the management honest and ethical?(4) does the coy have some competitive advantage in the market? If the answers are affirmative and the price is right,buy.
Remember when you are buying a share,you are buying a part of the business.So if the above factors are ok,buy and dont worry about the price movements! e.g. KCB results are very good,the business model is right,expansion,etc.,but the NSE is irrational,it has punished the share for good performance. Buy the bss not price movements.
Does this reduce your agony? dont bother with the brokers/predictions/ etc. If these guys were correct most of the time,they would be billionaires. ON average,they are not better than you and I.
mke
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/18/2007 Posts: 11
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One of the greatest lesson I have learned is to train yourself to study the market and macro economics...When the market is hot sell of some of your holding and diversify...when it goes down great opportunity may present...I learned greed can at times work at your disadvantage,I watched my portfolio dropped from 50% gain to 30% loss....at least know I understand what is meant by investing without emotional attachment.
A penny SAVED is a penny wasted if not INVESTED.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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I've noted this thought doing repeated rounds here that 'holding shares in a bear will cost you' - yes it may but you also need to ask yourself how far along are you into that bear before you offload??
Boss,just simply have a stop-loss and you will not need to worry whether it is a bear,market correction,price manipulation etc Beyond that is guesswork,tracking buy/sell orders and even more sleepless nights.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/3/2008 Posts: 238
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One good lesson.... Investment is long term..i.e 8yrs +; so need not worry much.. 4yrs to go!
wish is yesterday,hope is tomorrow.. today we make or break!
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/6/2007 Posts: 60
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...... the sword of Damocles.....
Nothing personal.... Kila kitu kiasi...hata ujinga...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,048 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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ARTICLE BELOW RE-ECHOED FOR POSTERITY AND TO SHARE MY EXPERIENCE ON THE BEST APPROACH TO CHRONIC BEAR MARKET !!! FOR THOSE THAT CARED TO LISTEN SINCE OCT 12 THAT I POSTED THIS INFO AND BECOME MORE CAREFUL IN HOLDING THEIR CASH AND WATCHING THE MARKET I BELIEVE THEY ARE LUCKY. I WILL STATE AGAIN AND AGAIN THAT THERE IS A TECHNIQUE OF HANDLING BEAR MARKET AND ALSO MAKING A FAIR ESTIMATE OF HOW LOW A COUNTER WILL GO. MANY OF US HERE HAVE NOT MANAGED BEARISHNESS BEFORE. THE STORY OF SPREAD BUY,OR BUY BUY BUY BUY IN BEAR MARKET IS NOT THE BEST BECAUSE YOU CANNOT HAVE MONEY ALL THE TIME,OUR BROKERS ARE INEFFICIENT SO EVEYTHING WILL BE MUDDLED UP CONTINUAND YOU CANNOT CONTINUEE TO BUY INDEFINITELY. IF YOU BUY EQUITY AT SAY 300,IT IS NOT WISE TO BUY AT 280,270,240,220,200,170,160 TILL KINGDOM COME ??? THERE IS A BETTER TECHNIQUE. IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO LISTEN TO STUPID YOUNG,READ BOOKS AND GET FACTS ON INVESTING IN BEARISH MARKET DO NOT BASE YOUR JUDGEMENT ON HEARSAY AND POPULAR OPINION. AS USUAL I HOPE SK COLLEAGUES WILL NOT MAKE TOO MUCH MISTAKES AND INCURE MUCH MORE LOSSES IN THE POPULAR SPREAD BUY AND BUY BUY BUY THEORY. I AM JUST A LONELY VOICE. UP TO YOU TO DECIDE. I WRITE THIS BECAUSE I PRAY FOR SOMETHING GOOD FOR BELOVED KENYANS AND OTHER PARTICIPANTS IN NSE (NAIROBI). IT IS BETTER TO LEARN BY INFO THAN TO LEARN BY EXPERIENCE. NOBODY CAN BUY EXPERIENCE. IT IS BEST TO KNOW HOW TO OPERATE IN ALL MARKET CONDITIONS. LOVE TO ALL, YOUNG, LAGOS,NIGERIA AFRICAN INVESTOR The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/8/2009 Posts: 71
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Investors in stocks are perennial learners!
All that glitters is not gold
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 294
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I have learnt my lessons. Thanks Young!
But you shall remember the LORD your God,for it is He who is giving you power to make wealth,that He may confirm His covenant which He swore to your fathers,as it is this day. Deu 8:18
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/5/2009 Posts: 181
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One thing i like about this site is that its sooo informative if your mind is open. Other than my own research and a few sprinklings from an analyst friend,SK tops my list when it comes to investing in the exchange.
That said,i have made it my policy to have a portfolio of 70% blue chips and 20% growth counters,the other 10% i speculate and buy junk stocks e.g Safcom.
I have learnt that the Blue chips are worth more holding in turbulent times as well as good times especially the dividends that come with them e.g EABL,Jubilee,BAT,NMG and Bamburi.
The Hedonist
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