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2011 - Stock Picks @VituVingiSana
cnn
#21 Posted : Monday, January 10, 2011 9:54:38 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,622
Williamson touches 230,still too cheap.
ProverB
#22 Posted : Monday, January 10, 2011 10:14:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
2012 wrote:
Interesting picks @vvs. My 2011 portfolio which I acquired 4thQ of 2010 is very conservative and safe. Experience has taught me to stay off the streets when the bull is charging so no buying at this time.
For 2011 I have BBK, KK and KPLC. So far so very good.


Applause Applause Applause
wisdom 101.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
QD
#23 Posted : Monday, January 10, 2011 10:26:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/5/2009
Posts: 597
Just curious what the intense campain for 2012 will have on the NSE en thus a three year portfolio hold might only have two year direction that is 2011 & 2013. @ Vitus will the modest gains be achieved ? taking into account 50:50 margin buy and the various risks.
The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence
youcan'tstopusnow
#24 Posted : Monday, January 10, 2011 11:51:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru, are you in agreement with VVS, stocksmaster and cnn that OMCs will earn more from the newly introduced price controls?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#25 Posted : Friday, January 28, 2011 3:57:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
KK - I am happy it touches 10 now & then... Coz I can pick up more!
KPLC - 24/- with heavy trading. Bids were over 1mn @ 24 at close.
Williamson - Few trades but 200/- at the last count. No complaints.

Kazi iendelee...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Tuesday, February 08, 2011 7:52:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Just an update:

KQ - Seems the pax numbers will be great based on new flights. Also see KLM Passenger Report for Jan 2011 Traffic http://corporate.klm.com...11/january-2011-traffic

KPLC - Water (hydropower) is an issue but I expect +30% over 1H 2009-10 in PAT

KK - Need I say more?

Williamson - Tea is taking a hit coz of Egypt but they will be back!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ProverB
#27 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 10:04:47 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
..exactly 28 days since i last did anything stocks wise..total hibernation from stocks world..hata news... and portfolio of DTK, Equity, Kakuzi, Centum, KPLC and coop is just the same to the shilling!!! smile ..albeit all the talk of something moving this or that..etc.. life of a longterm investor is boring! Sad
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
VituVingiSana
#28 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 1:49:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
@ProverB - Then do what @stocksmaster does:

- Keep a Mpango Ya Kando Portfolio... for the excitement & anticipation of that quickie... No deep feelings, just a gut feeling for an in & out...
- If you crash & burn [or get cleaned out] go back home to Mama Watoto Portfolio... who will accept you back with open arms...

Of course, if you have too many Mipango Wa Kando OR you spend too much on them... then even Mama Watoto can't help you out!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Govmusili
#29 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 2:43:27 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/13/2010
Posts: 85
Location: Nairobi
@vvs, i agree with u about kk, its definately a strong buy at these levels. KQ numbers shuld be good the problem with KQ, ur never sure how itll react to news, whether good or bad!
Govmusili
#30 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 2:48:16 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/13/2010
Posts: 85
Location: Nairobi
Govmusili wrote:
@vvs, i agree with u about kk, its definately a strong buy at these levels. KQ numbers shuld be good the problem with KQ, ur never sure how itll react to news, whether good or bad!


FYI 50% of my portfolio is in kq
Aguytrying
#31 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 2:50:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Nice one vvs! Like proverb, i also relish the action, off late, i've drastically reduced my rate of transactions, and holding for the medium term-to long term. im proud of myself.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
youcan'tstopusnow
#32 Posted : Wednesday, February 09, 2011 3:27:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Wacheni mipango ya kando!
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Govmusili
#33 Posted : Tuesday, February 15, 2011 11:00:47 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/13/2010
Posts: 85
Location: Nairobi
kq low of 41.75, lowest ammount for the year is 41.50. Things are looking gloom; im patiently waiting for those passenger numbers
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Tuesday, February 15, 2011 11:06:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
I have to admit... I might have to eat humble pie on KQ... LOL...

Though I am in it for the longer time... So I can wait!

I am not sure what the reason is for the drop in KQ coz the passenger numbers were not too bad...

http://kenya-airways.com....aspx?colm=&cid=3628
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
nahdy
#35 Posted : Tuesday, February 15, 2011 11:08:01 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/29/2006
Posts: 184
VituVingiSana
#36 Posted : Tuesday, February 15, 2011 11:09:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Kenya Airways Operating Performance; 3RD Qtr – Oct To Dec 2010

Kenya Airways releases its operating results for the third quarter ended 31st Dec 2010.

The company put into the market place capacity totalling 3,343m seat kilometres which was 5.2% better than last year’s level as a result of two new destinations launched in the third quarter to Rome and Malindi.

Capacity offered into Europe registered a 2.5% growth compared to the same quarter of prior year. The Middle East, Far East and Asia regions grew by 2.6% compared to last year largely due to the introduction of Muscat flights via Dubai. The minimal growth was due to the operation of the smaller B767 instead of the larger B777.

The Northern Africa region grew by 16.9% in capacity owing to the introduction of flights into Juba in Southern Sudan on the Embraer aircraft and Djibouti. Capacity availed into the East African region reduced by 7.4% compared to same period last year. This was a result of reduced frequencies in the major routes mainly Bujumbura, Kigali direct and Zanzibar as a result of better synchronization of KQ schedules with that of Precision Air. There was however, increased connections and frequency on both Kigali via Bujumbura and Antananarivo routes.

The highest seat kilometre increase into the network was registered in the Domestic Front which at 29.1% growth was due to 10 additional frequencies into Mombasa branded Mombasa Shuttle during the festivities and an average of four daily frequencies into Kisumu. Capacity offered in the Central Africa region remained at par with the same period last year despite the successful launches of Malabo and Bangui via Douala and Kisangani connecting through Entebbe. The capacity into West Africa grew by 15.7% mainly in Lagos and Bamako Dakar route that were served by B737-800.

Uptake of total production at 2,333m revenue passenger kilometres represents a 8.9% growth compared to last year while the total passenger tally, which closed on 829,263 increased by 7.3%. The resulting average cabin factor improved from last year’s level of 67.8% to 69.8%.

Cargo tonnage at 15,195 was at par with prior year’s level of 15,246 due to capacity constraints as a result of narrow body operations on most intra-african routes and competition with passenger and passenger baggage on core feed/de-feed routes.

Passenger uplift to Europe at 102,493 indicates a 5.4% year on year growth backed by a 2.5% capacity growth resulting to 73.5% occupancy level which is 1.7 points higher than prior year.

In the Middle East, Far East and Asia regions passenger traffic increased marginally by 1.8% against a capacity growth of 2.6%. The realised cabin factor of 76.8% was 5.6 points better than prior year.

Within Africa but excluding Kenya, total enplanements totalled 439,555 indicating growth of 4.2% compared to a 7.2% capacity growth, thus the resultant passenger cabin factor of 63.0% was ahead of prior year’s level of 61.6%.

Passengers uplifted within Kenya at 163,201 showed a marked improvement compared to prior year’s level of 133,301. The resulting cabin factor of 70.3% was however, lower than 75.9% achieved last year.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
The Merchant
#37 Posted : Tuesday, February 15, 2011 11:28:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Maybe someone is manipulating the KQ stock to cash in later? I don't understand the slip.
VituVingiSana
#38 Posted : Monday, May 02, 2011 9:57:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
It has been a long time since I posted here...

Whereas my firms have done well [more on that later] the stock prices have not... but that is the market & we have 7 months to go till Dec 2011.

BTW, why I continue to hold KPLC
http://www.businessdaily...8/-/qg50vv/-/index.html

KPLC is a distributor & higher units sales translates to higher Revenues & Profits. As KPLC sells more units, it can reduce the fixed costs per unit...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#39 Posted : Monday, May 02, 2011 10:07:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Williamson - Tea prices remain strong 1Q 2011 but production dropped vs 2010. My 300/- target looks slim but the PAT 2010-11 is expected to be better than 2009-10.

KenolKobil - Proved that it remains the best OMC in Kenya with solid 2010 profits & expects an even better 1H 2011. The price has stagnated at 10/- but my target was 13/- though I will not sell till it hits 20/- [expected to do so in/by 2013].

Kenya Airways - I expect very good profits for 2010-11 but a tough 2011-12 with the rapid rise in fuel costs. KQ will increase fuel surcharges. 60/- is a way off since KQ might have a Rights Issue that will dent the price. The delay in 787 deliveries has hurt expansion plans. Still, I expect a decent gain towards Dec 2011. I also expect some of its competitors to take a HUGE hit... some may even close up shop.

KPLC - Drought has hurt KenGen whereas KPLC sales are up by selling pricier Thermal power. Rain/water/thermal/geothermal sources of power have increased so will sales. FY 2010-11 should be better than 2009-10 but the price remains below my expectations. Let's see if 2010-11 results will have on the share price.

Unga - I expect 2010-11 results to be much better but it will face scrutiny as unga prices have risen. This remains a 3-year play. 10/- at the moment but I expect 20/- [incl dividends] by mid-2013.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#40 Posted : Tuesday, May 03, 2011 12:39:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
IMHO, KPLC (&KGN), KK - BUYS. All the rest AVOID. Especially KQ - great capacity expansion always but gobbled up by a highly volatile & variable (read un-controllable) cost base. I firmly believe in the increase of business & leisure travel in & out of Africa going-forward and my idea of how to cream it is through the hospitality industry. I hold a great pan-african hospitality company just for that. www.africansuninvestor.com
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