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Madness at the NSE

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VituVingiSana		#1971 Posted : Tuesday, February 18, 2020 10:35:38 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		I envy investors with cash! The low, low prices for many decent firms are unbelievable! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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Ericsson		#1972 Posted : Tuesday, February 18, 2020 1:41:00 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI		VituVingiSana wrote: I envy investors with cash! The low, low prices for many decent firms are unbelievable! Some are still resisting to go lower like safaricom,kcb,equity etc Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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winmak		#1973 Posted : Tuesday, February 18, 2020 2:35:12 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 12/1/2007 Posts: 539 Location: Nakuru		VituVingiSana wrote: I envy investors with cash! The low, low prices for many decent firms are unbelievable! Which For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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xtina		#1974 Posted : Wednesday, February 19, 2020 6:13:27 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 399		winmak wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: I envy investors with cash! The low, low prices for many decent firms are unbelievable! Which Not VVS but knowing them, they are probably talking about Centum, Unga, Equity (but not so much)and BAT.
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VituVingiSana		#1975 Posted : Wednesday, February 19, 2020 6:55:48 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		None for the faint-hearted. Patience required. Centum (27) is at 40% PB even after provisioning for Amu. 50% of its assets are in real estate including Two Rivers which is facing headwinds. Unga (33) PB is less than 1 but the economy and milling/food business is tough. Long-term play. Seaboard/Victus tried but failed to buy out 90%. BAT (480) 8% Dividend Yield but smoking is getting more expensive and opposition to tobacco use grows with education of harmful effects. Equity (50) seems expensive compared to other banks. The ATMA deal was important as driver of future growth. Kenya Re (3) has a 0.30 PB but is 60% owned by GoK which is a problem as seen in the boardroom wrangles in 2018. Banks (DTB, I&M, NCBA) look cheap on a PB and PER basis BUT they do suffer for a slow economy and growing NPLs. DTB (108) PB less than 1 but Kenya is the biggest segment and suffers from a slow non-GoK economy. NPLs are worrying. I&M (54) PB less than 1 but Kenya is the biggest segment and suffers from a slow non-GoK economy. NCBA (36) PB less than 1 but there will be costs to merge/integrate the 2 banks. Culture shock. Office politics. Customers will be pissed off. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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watesh		#1976 Posted : Wednesday, February 19, 2020 8:58:09 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 992 Location: Kenya		VituVingiSana wrote: None for the faint-hearted. Patience required. Centum (27) is at 40% PB even after provisioning for Amu. 50% of its assets are in real estate including Two Rivers which is facing headwinds. Unga (33) PB is less than 1 but the economy and milling/food business is tough. Long-term play. Seaboard/Victus tried but failed to buy out 90%. BAT (480) 8% Dividend Yield but smoking is getting more expensive and opposition to tobacco use grows with education of harmful effects. Equity (50) seems expensive compared to other banks. The ATMA deal was important as driver of future growth. Kenya Re (3) has a 0.30 PB but is 60% owned by GoK which is a problem as seen in the boardroom wrangles in 2018. Banks (DTB, I&M, NCBA) look cheap on a PB and PER basis BUT they do suffer for a slow economy and growing NPLs. DTB (108) PB less than 1 but Kenya is the biggest segment and suffers from a slow non-GoK economy. NPLs are worrying. I&M (54) PB less than 1 but Kenya is the biggest segment and suffers from a slow non-GoK economy. NCBA (36) PB less than 1 but there will be costs to merge/integrate the 2 banks. Culture shock. Office politics. Customers will be pissed off. I see a lot of opportunity in some of these stocks.... Centum - 40% of its portfolio is in real estate which is receiving mega bashing from all media sources. However, if their word is anything to go by sales are doing well but they can't book them in their books till they hand over so that starts the financial year 2020 - 2021. Market cap 18bn net assets over 50bn. Share price last went below 30 in 2013. NCBA - The revenue from Fuliza will take up a huge share of their non-funded income, the biggest opportunity this financial year. However, the thousands of complaints from customers since November about the system failures is worrying Equity - The best part of the Atlas Mara deal is Rwanda. Acquiring BPR will give it the widest branch reach in the country and they will just have BoK to compete with which is number 1 currently. The DR Congo bank acquisition will give a big push in corporate banking there and effectively put it at number 2 just behind Raw Bank. BAT - Their export market is slowly getting bigger than the Kenyan market esp in the DRC. However the percentage of the population who are smokers keeps getting smaller. Unless their LYFT product goes mainstream, BAT is good for the medium term.
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VituVingiSana		#1977 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2020 9:12:41 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi		BAT results are out. 30 Final Div. 3.50 Interim Div. Huge level of tax on the products. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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Extraterrestrial		#1978 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2020 2:43:41 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 11/17/2018 Posts: 173 Location: Mars		RENEWED BEAR. WE WILL BREAK 18 YEAR LOW AGAIN ON NSE20 IT SEEMS. THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED IN MODERN TIMES.
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mkate_nusu		#1979 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2020 2:46:36 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole		Extraterrestrial wrote: RENEWED BEAR. WE WILL BREAK 18 YEAR LOW AGAIN ON NSE20 IT SEEMS. THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED IN MODERN TIMES. I fully concur with you @Extraterrestrial KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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sparkly		#1980 Posted : Thursday, February 20, 2020 3:28:14 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi		mkate_nusu wrote: Extraterrestrial wrote: RENEWED BEAR. WE WILL BREAK 18 YEAR LOW AGAIN ON NSE20 IT SEEMS. THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED IN MODERN TIMES. I fully concur with you @Extraterrestrial I doubted @Mnandii predictions but they might just come to pass. Life is short. Live passionately.
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