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Ericsson
#361 Posted : Tuesday, May 31, 2016 11:27:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
@VituVingiSana
You are right.The ksh.20bn infrastructure bond floated in May is for paying contractors not the water and energy projects being advertised.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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mlennyma
#362 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2016 4:12:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
New low na bado
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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mkate_nusu
#363 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2016 4:57:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
Ericsson wrote:
@VituVingiSana
You are right.The ksh.20bn infrastructure bond floated in May is for paying contractors not the water and energy projects being advertised.


These debts will swallow us alive
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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VituVingiSana
#364 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2016 5:16:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
mkate_nusu wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@VituVingiSana
You are right.The ksh.20bn infrastructure bond floated in May is for paying contractors not the water and energy projects being advertised.


These debts will swallow us alive

If used judiciously these loans can help us but we have shady projects eg NYS that have consumed billions while producing less than what has been pumped in.

Look at political projects that have benefitted the corrupt eg bailouts of Mumias, Panpaper and KQ. These bailouts are at the expense of taxpayers.

If GoK were to STOP (reduce) borrowing from the local market, the rest of us could afford to borrow and build institutions.
Why would a factory owner expand when he has to pay 20%? He would rather put his "downpayment" money in T-Bonds.
Why would a farmer buy more land or build new sheds or plant a new variety when the risk of default is high? He could lose his farm.

I know many local manufacturers and farmers who would EXPAND their production capacity if they could access loans at 8% instead of 20% (or more). Instead, we are IMPORTING many goods/services because the financial risk is very high.

I expect banks to reduce NEW lending but they will restructure & refinance loans of borrowers in distress. I want to see a growth in lending in Agriculture and Manufacturing NOT "imports" and malls!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ebenyo
#365 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2016 9:42:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
VituVingiSana wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@VituVingiSana
You are right.The ksh.20bn infrastructure bond floated in May is for paying contractors not the water and energy projects being advertised.


These debts will swallow us alive

If used judiciously these loans can help us but we have shady projects eg NYS that have consumed billions while producing less than what has been pumped in.

Look at political projects that have benefitted the corrupt eg bailouts of Mumias, Panpaper and KQ. These bailouts are at the expense of taxpayers.

If GoK were to STOP (reduce) borrowing from the local market, the rest of us could afford to borrow and build institutions.
Why would a factory owner expand when he has to pay 20%? He would rather put his "downpayment" money in T-Bonds.
Why would a farmer buy more land or build new sheds or plant a new variety when the risk of default is high? He could lose his farm.

I know many local manufacturers and farmers who would EXPAND their production capacity if they could access loans at 8% instead of 20% (or more). Instead, we are IMPORTING many goods/services because the financial risk is very high.

I expect banks to reduce NEW lending but they will restructure & refinance loans of borrowers in distress. I want to see a growth in lending in Agriculture and Manufacturing NOT "imports" and malls!

Is there any development from insiders concerning the kshs 7 billion loan? Oigara had said it was to be repaid this month?
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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mlennyma
#366 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 9:42:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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PKoli
#367 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 9:52:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
mlennyma wrote:
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched

@20 bob, I will liquidate everything else and buy KCB. Sub 30 sounds very juicy
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Plimsoul
#368 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 9:55:20 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/3/2016
Posts: 132
mlennyma wrote:
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched


When is the rights?
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Aguytrying
#369 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 10:39:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
PKoli wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched

@20 bob, I will liquidate everything else and buy KCB. Sub 30 sounds very juicy


I wish it was equity bank at these prices
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Pesa Nane
#370 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 12:20:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Aguytrying wrote:
PKoli wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched

@20 bob, I will liquidate everything else and buy KCB. Sub 30 sounds very juicy


I wish it was equity bank at these prices

@Aguy?!!!!
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Aguytrying
#371 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 1:23:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Pesa Nane wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
PKoli wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched

@20 bob, I will liquidate everything else and buy KCB. Sub 30 sounds very juicy


I wish it was equity bank at these prices

@Aguy?!!!!


So that I buy. I've been waiting for a long time
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#372 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 2:28:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mibbz
#373 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 2:41:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Quick one, anyone knows the rights price?

Thanks
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Ebenyo
#374 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 5:03:36 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
Aguytrying wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
PKoli wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched

@20 bob, I will liquidate everything else and buy KCB. Sub 30 sounds very juicy


I wish it was equity bank at these prices

@Aguy?!!!!


So that I buy. I've been waiting for a long time


lm also waiting equity.I first entered at 38.50 i want to add more at below this price.How did it close today?
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Pesa Nane
#375 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 9:37:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Aguytrying wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
PKoli wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched

@20 bob, I will liquidate everything else and buy KCB. Sub 30 sounds very juicy


I wish it was equity bank at these prices

@Aguy?!!!!


So that I buy. I've been waiting for a long time


Spoilt for choice. Remember this << smile >>

Aguytrying wrote:
The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve.

Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre.

In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round.
Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now.

STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7

EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20

JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43

SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)

BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85

Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Ebenyo
#376 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 10:28:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
Pesa Nane wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
PKoli wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched

@20 bob, I will liquidate everything else and buy KCB. Sub 30 sounds very juicy


I wish it was equity bank at these prices

@Aguy?!!!!


So that I buy. I've been waiting for a long time


Spoilt for choice. Remember this << smile >>

Aguytrying wrote:
The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve.

Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre.

In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round.
Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now.

STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7

EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20

JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43

SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)

BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85



@pesa nane,tomorrow morning i will top up my kcb holding.I agree with u that it will be painful kupitwa na bei ya saa hii ambayo iko chini.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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mlennyma
#377 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 10:59:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
mibbz wrote:
Quick one, anyone knows the rights price?

Thanks

a long way to go,did i hear of cma approval??not sure but for now nobody knows and information is not yet out. my good feeling is that 25bob for rights price won't be a bad deal
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Aguytrying
#378 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 11:23:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Ebenyo wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
PKoli wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched

@20 bob, I will liquidate everything else and buy KCB. Sub 30 sounds very juicy


I wish it was equity bank at these prices

@Aguy?!!!!


So that I buy. I've been waiting for a long time


Spoilt for choice. Remember this << smile >>

Aguytrying wrote:
The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve.

Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre.

In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round.
Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now.

STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7

EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20

JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43

SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)

BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85



@pesa nane,tomorrow morning i will top up my kcb holding.I agree with u that it will be painful kupitwa na bei ya saa hii ambayo iko chini.


I have been looking for this thread thanks smile .
My price targets still holding after bear has been ruthless
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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muandiwambeu
#379 Posted : Tuesday, June 28, 2016 1:13:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
Pesa Nane wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
PKoli wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched

@20 bob, I will liquidate everything else and buy KCB. Sub 30 sounds very juicy


I wish it was equity bank at these prices

@Aguy?!!!!


So that I buy. I've been waiting for a long time


Spoilt for choice. Remember this << smile >>

Aguytrying wrote:
The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve.

Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre.

In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round.
Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now.

STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7

EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20

JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43

SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)

BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85


with change of time data/ information is subject to inaccuracies and loss of relevancy. for instance, was/ will a rights issue to/ cause dilution to kcb shareholders-strongly yes? so are the metrics setout over there immune to time changes-no.
was Brexit vote a critical factor then-no and is it pivotal now-yes? Brexit will most likely distabilise forex and have ramifications on forex losses and gains on forcurency denominated loans, most likely arm is a calpable candidate amongst many.
will strengthening of say £ or $ or € affect O.M.O by government_of coarse yes.
so, Am very much arrive and even more alert now.
so what should I do now, divorce jitterly babes cause its time to know who is my real baby. also time to be niced up and were a new tunic.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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VituVingiSana
#380 Posted : Tuesday, June 28, 2016 7:40:03 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
PKoli wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
31.50 with pending rights 20bob not far fetched

@20 bob, I will liquidate everything else and buy KCB. Sub 30 sounds very juicy


I wish it was equity bank at these prices

Pray Pray Pray Equity at 30 over KCB at 30 any day ceteris paribus!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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