Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: With the resistance set at 2420 on top of a GFC low of 2360 and a jumbo volume spike at current levels it will take a sell-off of monumental proportions to breach those targets. That will set up a nice fear gauge/capitulation measure when it pans out probably in H2 of 2020.
I don't expect the current rally to push above 3000 and not much either in the way of aggressive lending by banks. Going forward it is still risk management that is imperative rather than seeking outsize returns especially if the old loans are to be repriced. Turning my gaze to KES, bond yields, bank bond holdings and the now resurrected CBR.
Curious that BBK, SCBK and stanbic join the laggard HFCK on low trade volumes coupled with zero foreign buying in contrast to what is happening to Coop, Kcb, Equity and DTB on both metrics.
Taking down 3000 on the NSE would take turbo volumes and more importantly fiscal discipline by GoK.
It would be interesting to see the bond trade volumes going forward as banks choose to either take a hit on AFS bonds or reclassifying them to HTM.
I like that KES has reacted positively to the news. It would be interesting to see how the pair trends in the coming days.
It will be interesting to observe GoK's fiscal position and its impact on the economy at large vis a vis sailing choppy waters both domestically and globally going forward. On fiscal discipline, we can write that off as a unicorn given that a new debt ceiling of 9T - approx 100% of GDP - was set specifically to enable KE to continue living beyond its means until something snaps aka kicking the can. There isn't much wiggle room left anyway so I guess the chickens will be coming home to roost.
For banks, I would prefer the ones that significantly scale down and take the hit on AFS bond holdings rather than reclassifying them to HTM which would only exacerbate a fiscal doom loop.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.