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Too many HELLOS, Time to quit stocks!
Aguytrying
#171 Posted : Friday, July 17, 2015 11:52:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Prices heading lower and lower...

This has always happened in late December. Nothing new

indeed prices do dip in Dec, but this time something is different. Vol spike/heavy turnover in Dec (vacation break period esp foreign deals). First time I'm seeing such heavy trading activity that mirrors end of Jan/start of Feb when trading desks are back in operation.

Sum up the turnover in Dec and compare with the other months in 2014. Weird activity. Then do an average for all Dec months and notice the abnormal turnover. Why are the exchange bar guys this busy in the market during xmas period? Aren't they supposed to be on holiday? Scangroup trades 1.6B turnover in two days on xmas week?! Abnormal Dec activity.

So the abnormal Dec turnover activity was...? Was it bullish (accumulation) or bearish (distribution)? Make your own conclusion.


Distribution!! these big boys are always 3 steps ahead of wanjiku
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Muthawamunene
#172 Posted : Friday, July 17, 2015 12:32:33 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
Been a while since I was last here, (since 2010 to be exact).

I was a student then, and boy did I learn. Got in at the peak and got burned severely. I got out with my tail between my legs (stock market si ya mummy).

Many lessons have been learnt since then.

1. Unless you can afford to keep track of stocks and indices full time and think about them as you go to bed, leave the trading to the traders. (and the chartists, etc)

2. If you're looking at the stock market for your next meal, please stop looking. (i.e don't have it as your primary income source or nest egg). In this relation, try as much as possible not to exit when you're neck deep in the red - the loss is not made till you sell.

3.Learn how to read financial statements (not relying on others to interpret for you) and learn to see and observe and relate how events relate to your investments. (Peter Lynch here). The main aim is investing thus aim to pay as little as possible for current and future dividends (the sock price rationally follows the dividend).

4. Consistency and patience esp for the young and the risk averse. If your aim is not trading, find good companies(see lesson 3), save cash and amass stock in intervals. Like having a fixed amount set aside for share purchases.

If the market sentiment is too bullish, buy small quantities(like half the cash you had set aside).

If the market starts heading down, proportionally increase your purchases. Bring down that buying average.(remember ugali wako hatoki hapa- see lesson 2).

Yes, these methods will not grant you the same returns as those who go fully in at the bottom of the curve, but there is less risk of missing the upward slope next time.

Which brings me to the last lesson,

5. Flexibility. Read the market. Feel the sentiment in the air and combine with lesson3. If there is nothing truly wrong with the fundamentals but prices are dipping - buy. If the books and prospects do not justify a sky rocketing stock price, eat bile, miss that wave and forget it.

sparkly
#173 Posted : Friday, July 17, 2015 4:22:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Prices heading lower and lower...

This has always happened in late December. Nothing new

indeed prices do dip in Dec, but this time something is different. Vol spike/heavy turnover in Dec (vacation break period esp foreign deals). First time I'm seeing such heavy trading activity that mirrors end of Jan/start of Feb when trading desks are back in operation.

Sum up the turnover in Dec and compare with the other months in 2014. Weird activity. Then do an average for all Dec months and notice the abnormal turnover. Why are the exchange bar guys this busy in the market during xmas period? Aren't they supposed to be on holiday? Scangroup trades 1.6B turnover in two days on xmas week?! Abnormal Dec activity.

So the abnormal Dec turnover activity was...? Was it bullish (accumulation) or bearish (distribution)? Make your own conclusion.


Distribution! You were spot on.
Life is short. Live passionately.
sparkly
#174 Posted : Friday, July 17, 2015 4:24:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
subaru wrote:
sparkly wrote:
I haven't seen a "Hello, what stock should I buy?" thread in a while.

Optimism has turned into ambivalence.

Greed replaced by caution.


hellos wameamka eyes are open waiting to buy at the right moment


Hope Hellos are watching and learning...
Life is short. Live passionately.
sparkly
#175 Posted : Friday, July 17, 2015 4:28:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
lochaes wrote:
sparkly wrote:
I haven't seen a "Hello, what stock should I buy?" thread in a while.

Optimism has turned into ambivalence.

Greed replaced by caution.


Tuko darasani internalizing Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


Lesson is simple enough. Avoid expensive markets/ shares. Buy when the market is cheap.
Life is short. Live passionately.
lochaes
#176 Posted : Friday, July 17, 2015 4:36:51 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 6/30/2014
Posts: 86
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
lochaes wrote:
sparkly wrote:
I haven't seen a "Hello, what stock should I buy?" thread in a while.

Optimism has turned into ambivalence.

Greed replaced by caution.


Tuko darasani internalizing Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


Lesson is simple enough. Avoid expensive markets/ shares. Buy when the market is cheap.


duly noted
jawgey
#177 Posted : Friday, July 17, 2015 9:05:37 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/13/2014
Posts: 398
Location: Denmark
Muthawamunene wrote:
Been a while since I was last here, (since 2010 to be exact).

I was a student then, and boy did I learn. Got in at the peak and got burned severely. I got out with my tail between my legs (stock market si ya mummy).

Many lessons have been learnt since then.

1. Unless you can afford to keep track of stocks and indices full time and think about them as you go to bed, leave the trading to the traders. (and the chartists, etc)

2. If you're looking at the stock market for your next meal, please stop looking. (i.e don't have it as your primary income source or nest egg). In this relation, try as much as possible not to exit when you're neck deep in the red - the loss is not made till you sell.

3.Learn how to read financial statements (not relying on others to interpret for you) and learn to see and observe and relate how events relate to your investments. (Peter Lynch here). The main aim is investing thus aim to pay as little as possible for current and future dividends (the sock price rationally follows the dividend).

4. Consistency and patience esp for the young and the risk averse. If your aim is not trading, find good companies(see lesson 3), save cash and amass stock in intervals. Like having a fixed amount set aside for share purchases.

If the market sentiment is too bullish, buy small quantities(like half the cash you had set aside).

If the market starts heading down, proportionally increase your purchases. Bring down that buying average.(remember ugali wako hatoki hapa- see lesson 2).

Yes, these methods will not grant you the same returns as those who go fully in at the bottom of the curve, but there is less risk of missing the upward slope next time.

Which brings me to the last lesson,

5. Flexibility. Read the market. Feel the sentiment in the air and combine with lesson3. If there is nothing truly wrong with the fundamentals but prices are dipping - buy. If the books and prospects do not justify a sky rocketing stock price, eat bile, miss that wave and forget it.



Nice read @muthawamunene. Great advice there. Welcome back
Seeing is believing
Aguytrying
#178 Posted : Friday, July 17, 2015 11:33:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Smells like a burnt hello. But kudos ur on the right path
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
TheGeek
#179 Posted : Sunday, July 19, 2015 4:34:43 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/3/2014
Posts: 245
sparkly wrote:
I haven't seen a "Hello, what stock should I buy?" thread in a while.

Optimism has turned into ambivalence.

Greed replaced by caution.



new version is "which sacco to join" ?
and "plot for sale"
In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
Muthawamunene
#180 Posted : Monday, July 20, 2015 7:54:22 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Smells like a burnt hello. But kudos ur on the right path

Of course its a burnt hello.
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