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kenolkobil returns to profit in Q1 2013
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maka
#171 Posted : Saturday, June 29, 2013 2:15:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
Once I hit a loser...I always insulate my portfolio by buying into other stocks...cost averaging is crap because you can dig a grave for yourself e.g this week I bought Liberty at Sh9.2...it closed trading at Sh10...if i bought more KK i would have added up more losses to the current ones...study the charts...i will buy more KK once a signal pops up on my screen....btwn this is a long term play...im looking at 2014-15...when KK returns to paying dividends...

Advice: Dont follow individuals...develop your own strategy...perfect it until it works...there is only one Warren Buffet...no one can be him!

...you believe cost averaging is crap some analysts believe chartists are akin to astrologers...This is what Eugene Fama thinks...

‘Chartist theories implicitly assume that there is dependence in series of successive price
changes. That is, the history of the series can be used to make meaningful predictions
concerning the future. On the other hand, the theory of random walks says that successive
price changes are independent, that is, the past cannot be used to predict the future. Thus
the two theories are diametrically opposed, and if, as the empirical evidence seems to suggest,
the random-walk theory is valid, then chartist theories are akin to astrology and of no real
value to the investor… It is not enough for him (the chartist) to talk mystically about patterns
that he sees in the data. He must show that he can consistently use these patterns to make
meaningful predictions of future prices.’

But as you say everyone should develop their own strategy over time and sees what suites them best
possunt quia posse videntur
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guru267
#172 Posted : Saturday, June 29, 2013 4:16:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
18. "Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."

24. "The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth."


@VVS don't these two points define your relationship with KK!??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#173 Posted : Sunday, June 30, 2013 12:09:47 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
18. "Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."

24. "The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth."


@VVS don't these two points define your relationship with KK!??

Not really. 2012 was the only (very significant) poor year in recent times. I can live with it.
WB would have chided KK on use of naked derivatives. As of the AGM, they have said no more naked hedges & only covered hedges for specific transactions.
#18 would be Olympia with 5 years of consistent losses or sub-par profits. And a shady management.
If KK was 'suspended' for 5 years I'd still be OK knowing Management is making efforts. Even WB doesn't bat 100%.
The huge drawback you identified earlier is Price Controls or anything GoK has control over. That is the chink in the armor. Keeping that in mind, I exited KPLC the day after ruto 'suspended' a tariff increase.
On KK's cases, it's complicated but eventually I think KPRL & KPC will cave in. I like the focus on selling 'surplus' properties.

WB style... No rush. I will/can wait 'forever' [well, more like 2 years]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#174 Posted : Sunday, June 30, 2013 7:54:40 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
18. "Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."

24. "The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth."


@VVS don't these two points define your relationship with KK!??

Not really. 2012 was the only (very significant) poor year in recent times. I can live with it.
WB would have chided KK on use of naked derivatives. As of the AGM, they have said no more naked hedges & only covered hedges for specific transactions.
#18 would be Olympia with 5 years of consistent losses or sub-par profits. And a shady management.
If KK was 'suspended' for 5 years I'd still be OK knowing Management is making efforts. Even WB doesn't bat 100%.
The huge drawback you identified earlier is Price Controls or anything GoK has control over. That is the chink in the armor. Keeping that in mind, I exited KPLC the day after ruto 'suspended' a tariff increase.
On KK's cases, it's complicated but eventually I think KPRL & KPC will cave in. I like the focus on selling 'surplus' properties.

WB style... No rush. I will/can wait 'forever' [well, more like 2 years]


@VVS as an investor one must analyse current trends to predict future outcomes... That's what point #24 is explaining

Apart from basing on past performance and the hidden NAV where else do you see KK making an EPS of 1 (aka 1.5billion) bob from operations in the current environment??

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Aguytrying
#175 Posted : Sunday, June 30, 2013 9:27:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
[quote=Aguytrying]i have to say i never imagined 9.00 breaking. but this makes it easier to buy knowing its probably nearer to its lowest than when i started buying.
on Monday im especially interested at those selling at 8.80, ill rid u of your shares.

people feel riskier while buying share that's going down, but as it goes down risk reduces as value increases
Haiya! Are you related to Warren Buffett? Applause Applause Applause

I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years
Read more at http://www.brainyquote.c...tml#OzIlHUujDT4DAtvK.99

"Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."

Read more: http://www.marketfolly.c...otes.html#ixzz2XaFC6b6Z[/quote]

ha ha. let's just say, i believe in everything graham says.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana
#176 Posted : Sunday, June 30, 2013 12:45:16 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
18. "Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."

24. "The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth."


@VVS don't these two points define your relationship with KK!??

Not really. 2012 was the only (very significant) poor year in recent times. I can live with it.
WB would have chided KK on use of naked derivatives. As of the AGM, they have said no more naked hedges & only covered hedges for specific transactions.
#18 would be Olympia with 5 years of consistent losses or sub-par profits. And a shady management.
If KK was 'suspended' for 5 years I'd still be OK knowing Management is making efforts. Even WB doesn't bat 100%.
The huge drawback you identified earlier is Price Controls or anything GoK has control over. That is the chink in the armor. Keeping that in mind, I exited KPLC the day after ruto 'suspended' a tariff increase.
On KK's cases, it's complicated but eventually I think KPRL & KPC will cave in. I like the focus on selling 'surplus' properties.

WB style... No rush. I will/can wait 'forever' [well, more like 2 years]


@VVS as an investor one must analyse current trends to predict future outcomes... That's what point #24 is explaining

Apart from basing on past performance and the hidden NAV where else do you see KK making an EPS of 1 (aka 1.5billion) bob from operations in the current environment??

I am not concerned about past performance [as WB so rightly points out] as the environment is very different in 2013 vs 2009-12 but on the management ability to navigate the ship in 2013-14. That said, another loss like this in 2012 & I am out.

2013
1) They have a reversal in their books on 31 Dec 2012 of a hedge position (provision) taken in 2011. See comprehensive income.
2) Many firms write off dead stocks, bad loans, etc in 'bad' years if they can do so. I have seen that happen on many occasions. If you have a loss of 8bn, adding 1 more billion to it will not be a major problem. What happens next year is recoveries/settlements/sale of dead stocks add to 'profit recovery' for the firm. I am targeting a modest 1.5bn PAT for the full year.
3) Back to selling fuel & not playing with naked hedges. Note that despite all the problems with KPRL, KK has not gone dry even 2 weeks after it was suspended from OTS. If anything, they are selling 'cheaper' fuel. BTW, KK is just one of many firms not picking products from KPRL. Starting tomorrow, most OMCs are not obligated to buy from KPRL.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#177 Posted : Sunday, June 30, 2013 1:39:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS the market is not easily fooled! If KK makes 1.5Bn from write backs and recoveries the stock will still get hammered...

Segman talked of a positive EBITDA but curiously left out PAT from the conversation so I still predict a loss in H1 2013 so even that 1.5Bn sijui umeitoa wapi!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#178 Posted : Sunday, June 30, 2013 1:50:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS would you then agree that the Buffet quote below relates very strongly to KK??

VituVingiSana wrote:
6. "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is usually the reputation of the business that remains intact."


The "business with bad economics" being oil marketing in Africa..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Realtreaty
#179 Posted : Sunday, June 30, 2013 6:39:19 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,388
KK below 9 is a gift (call it alms or sadaka). If Half year results comes out positive it will ultimately jump to its original levels of 12, thereby someone earning 4 Kes immediately. Is someone trying to lower demnd and increasing supply to affect the stock in a way for a lower offer if project Chui becomes Project Hyena? Remember Chui uses tactics in hunting while Hyena uses to prey on weakness. KK is becoming weaker!
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Aguytrying
#180 Posted : Sunday, June 30, 2013 8:20:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
lets see where the supply will be kesho, got some cash to throw at it.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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