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Kenol Kobil deal off!
SittingPretty
#171 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2013 6:52:39 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/16/2013
Posts: 123
Location: MSA
VituVingiSana wrote:
KK can also use 'transport' as a storage mechanism. If you start shipping out fuel from your depots, then your depots [storage tanks] can be filled up with 'incoming' fuel. As is the only fuel KK doesn't have access to is from KPRL. It costs KK a few KShs to get it from OTS via other firms e.g. the smaller firms or briefcase dealers.


Its certainly obvious that no OMC can survive outside the OTS. The marketshare of KK is too big to be satisfied by these "brief case dealers" albeit at a premium. If you are kicked out of the OTS, you are no different from the small timers looking for fuel becomes an everyday affair, not easy if you have to satisfy 8,000M3 everyday!And in this business even Ksh0.50 could mean your profitability.
To KK holders, its back in the OTS so no worries!
Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
musonw
#172 Posted : Tuesday, July 16, 2013 12:46:26 PM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 7/4/2013
Posts: 2
[quote=Afroblk]KenolKobil now selling assets! This is not good at all. Kisumu depot is one of their important depots for that region.

http://www.theeastafrica...0/-/287gw7/-/index.html[/quote]

The Depots for sale are storage not fuel depots. Not essential for business. The Kisumu terminal in KPC will be retained, its vital for their export business.
FUNKY
#173 Posted : Tuesday, July 16, 2013 10:14:48 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
guru267
#174 Posted : Wednesday, July 17, 2013 1:28:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi


Funny how the board is talking of restoring profitability in two to three years.... Nothing about h1 or h2 2013 Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
hisah
#175 Posted : Wednesday, July 17, 2013 5:41:32 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:


Funny how the board is talking of restoring profitability in two to three years.... Nothing about h1 or h2 2013 Sad

I'm so waiting for that H1 2013 results release reality check. Once a strong price support is broken down (9/-), the market signal is loud and clear. KK capitulation is not yet done. That 5yr chart needs to get oversold (and it will)... By then KK wil be a hated stock with few discussions taking place. KQ has been forgotten, KK will follow soon.

At some point these 2 (kk & kq) will offer a nice multi year contrarian setup. @deal - hope you're looking at the larger time frame for that contra play. Large bounce (turn window) likely towards end of 2014 into 2015. The best setup will be when the daily, weekly and monthly as well as 5yr chart are all deeply oversold...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
jmbada
#176 Posted : Wednesday, July 17, 2013 8:24:23 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2011
Posts: 396
musonw wrote:
[quote=Afroblk]KenolKobil now selling assets! This is not good at all. Kisumu depot is one of their important depots for that region.

http://www.theeastafrica...0/-/287gw7/-/index.html[/quote]

The Depots for sale are storage not fuel depots. Not essential for business. The Kisumu terminal in KPC will be retained, its vital for their export business.

Pardon my ignorance, but what does that mean? Is Kenol importing crude to store in these depots? If not, then they are storing refined crude, popularly known as fuel. Unless they are storing other commodities such as grain?
jmbada
#177 Posted : Wednesday, July 17, 2013 8:30:28 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2011
Posts: 396
Kausha wrote:
Point is if Kenol Kobil didn't have fuel you would be feeling the heat at the pump price. The last time dear old Nyoike tried getting them of their KPC and Ullage, mwananchi had to pay 10 bob premium for fuel. They simply paid total and oil libya 85 bob for 80 bob diesel and repriced the same to 90 bob resulting in every OMC repricing to 90 bob. We all know how that ended. Look Kenol controls the network outside nairobi by a huge difference. You can't wish them away. The media reports are smear campaigns and sometimes you can't rule out Kenol itself airing them out. Specifically the KPRL issues to get government attention I suspect. a substantial amount of fuel is trucked. KPC infrastructure is very limited. Kenol also has no destructive squables with KPC at the moment and can pump fuel as and when.

For every litre KK bypasses they save 10 shillings in refining fees. So provided they can maintain volumes at their stations frankly speaking to shareholders they can continue shadow boxing KPRL. KPC is already shipping KK's fuel to inland depots.

Uhhh...no?! Pump prices are controlled by ERC. If a firm's production costs exceed the allowable pump price range, they have to either absorb the costs (at a loss) or withhold selling fuel (also at a loss due to financing costs & storage costs) or stop collecting fuel from the refinery (also at a cost since the money falls due ANYWAY once you've confirmed your order). When faced with these tough choices, most firms would probably sell fuel at a loss, sell non-core assets, optimize internal operating costs and hope for the best.
murchr
#178 Posted : Wednesday, July 17, 2013 8:51:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:


Funny how the board is talking of restoring profitability in two to three years.... Nothing about h1 or h2 2013 Sad

I'm so waiting for that H1 2013 results release reality check. Once a strong price support is broken down (9/-), the market signal is loud and clear. KK capitulation is not yet done. That 5yr chart needs to get oversold (and it will)... By then KK wil be a hated stock with few discussions taking place. KQ has been forgotten, KK will follow soon.

At some point these 2 (kk & kq) will offer a nice multi year contrarian setup. @deal - hope you're looking at the larger time frame for that contra play. Large bounce (turn window) likely towards end of 2014 into 2015. The best setup will be when the daily, weekly and monthly as well as 5yr chart are all deeply oversold...



When are we having this party? smile
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mwekez@ji
#179 Posted : Wednesday, July 17, 2013 8:56:58 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:


Funny how the board is talking of restoring profitability in two to three years.... Nothing about h1 or h2 2013 Sad

I'm so waiting for that H1 2013 results release reality check. Once a strong price support is broken down (9/-), the market signal is loud and clear. KK capitulation is not yet done. That 5yr chart needs to get oversold (and it will)... By then KK wil be a hated stock with few discussions taking place. KQ has been forgotten, KK will follow soon.

At some point these 2 (kk & kq) will offer a nice multi year contrarian setup. @deal - hope you're looking at the larger time frame for that contra play. Large bounce (turn window) likely towards end of 2014 into 2015. The best setup will be when the daily, weekly and monthly as well as 5yr chart are all deeply oversold...



When are we having this party? smile


...... far away Think
the deal
#180 Posted : Wednesday, July 17, 2013 9:12:39 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@hisah Kenol will not go below 7bob even if H1 2013 earnings dissapoints...people are expecting the Company to collapse...the headlines have been too bearish...any good news going forward will send the stock surging...in the 2011 bear run if my portfolio wasnt heavily skewed to KK...I will have suffered heavy paper losses...let everything rally...I will exit my other positions and take a heavy position on KK in anticipation for a buy out...every market event is an opportunity...it depends on how you view it...and I fully support the board for delaying the sell....let them create or unlock value first...then invite the highest bidder...in the next 2-3 years there will be a bear run at the NSE....and if the takeover is sealed at that time...KK will have many groupies....
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