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How to tell NSE has bottomed out

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hisah		#171 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2011 12:54:20 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		Ksh wrote: CBK holding interest rates at 6.25% is not helping my case as an admired EA currency... I'm destined to head to 100/- per USD and will also post weakens to:- a)EURKES to around 140 b)GPBUSD around 160 c)JPYKES around 120 d)CHFKES around 130 e)AUDKES around 120 Oh my dear 2nd hand car dealers, metal dealers, food imports, industrials, other importers etc, I wish you all the best since I cannot stem the tide of the yen and the dollar since my policy makers aka central planners are sleeping on the job Yours Truly, Ksh aka KES... @Kizee1 - Pole sana, the USDKES @90 was blasphemy then and it about to get even more blasphemous!? Civil unrest, you will see and Mr Market sees this too and cares less about the EA fundamentals @Kinuthia aka KK - I am so hoping your USDKES @120/- call does not come true $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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guru267		#172 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2011 5:03:17 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		the deal wrote: We are in a Bear Market...the sell off has some fundamentals to it...the economy is not doing well...unlike what the politicians wants u to believe...economy slowed down greatly in the 2Q and inflation will keep slowing it down... SOARING Corporate profits + 5% economic growth.. What do the politicians have to do with this?? Inflation will continue to soar as a result of the drought but it cannot stop the momentum... The NSE is selling off simply because of worried foreigners and poor kenyans. Not because any fundamental problems with the companies.. All this = One fat buying opportunity!!! Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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the deal		#173 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2011 6:06:15 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery		The NSE20 continued its bounce for the 2nd day, the benchmark NSE20 gained 11.56 points or 0.31% to close at 3769.45. On the Forex front the shilling further lost ground to the green buck, in fact the last time I checked it was trading at 91.15 against the USD. CBK left its repo rate unchanged yesterday which I think to me was a bad decision, I expect the Shilling to keep weakening against the USD which in tandem will push imported inflation to alarming proportions. Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...ow-shilling-weakens.html
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Sober		#174 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2011 6:13:38 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604		@guru267. I agree with you that it is now that prices are low. The question is, has the market bottomed out? F it can sink further then i should wait an even get better bargains. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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the deal		#175 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 9:53:27 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery		3700 proving tough to breach...if we breach it I see 3500 being the short term support for the NSE20.
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accelriskconsult		#176 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 10:20:02 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 4/2/2011 Posts: 629 Location: Nai		Aguytrying wrote: hisah wrote: the deal wrote: @hisah correction; on RSI the NSE has been gravely oversold for the past 2 month...well KK shook off some of those overbought levels...we were once at 12bob before we crashed to 10 something levels...the market never anticipated 80%+ or an interim dividend...i was calling for a dividend because after looking at their cash flow statement...KK was sitting on alot of free cash...so even a 1 bob ID was possible just from FY 2010. Just like the banks announcing last year super results & Q1 glossy results, they still got sold. KK will experience the same in coming weeks. Money has already been made. Buy the rumour, sell the news... I have been thinking about your statement on KK,i studied the chart. its the bitter truth but its true. the reason the price was pushed up is because they knew about the ID, a 50% growth alone cant move anything in this current market. look at HFCK 70 something odd percent and it didnt even twitch.........they knew......... The question of why NSE companies post stellar growth and the share price fails to respond has been debated ad infinitum on Wazua. I have pondered the question a lot and developed an hypothesis. Investors on the NSE seem to expect that most listed companies will either go regional, grow inorganically through acquisitions, or organically through reinvestment. This thinking is actually supported by recent investments by EABL in Serengeti Breweries, Kenol Kobil's Africa expansion, Scangroups forays into the continent, Safaricom's regular investments to updgrage her network, Equity & KCB Banks' regional expansion etc. In summary, one of the assumptions of the perfect/free market hypothesis (that all players in the market have perfect information), and the expectations theory, to a large extent determines the actions of players on the NSE. Kenya=country in growth stage with a lot of focuse on the region and therefore companies are no longer willing to pay the huge dividends of yester year. As an investor, this kind of news is welcome. As a trader (day trader), selection of stocks for short term gains becomes more complicated, but not impossible
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young		#177 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 1:08:04 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,075 Location: Lagos, Nigeria		accelriskconsult wrote Kenya=country in growth stage with a lot of focuse on the region and therefore companies are no longer willing to pay the huge dividends of yester year OPINION However on the contrary Kenya top companies are one of the best dividend paying companies in Sub Saharan africa using the universal yard stick of 5% dividend yield. I can name a few :- KCB BBK BAT SAFCOM BOC BAMBURI KK KPLC ETC ETC http://allafrica.com/stories/201104060069.html The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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guru267		#178 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 5:25:32 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		Sober wrote: @guru267. I agree with you that it is now that prices are low. The question is, has the market bottomed out? F it can sink further then i should wait an even get better bargains. If any wazuan perceives himself as a prophet, soothsayer, witchdoctor or fortune teller then by all means wait for the bottom.. Otherwise I know a lot of people(wazuans included) who saw JUBILEE at 165bob and were sitting waiting for it to go to 120... Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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the deal		#179 Posted : Friday, July 29, 2011 6:00:26 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery		The NSE20 gained 5 points or 0.41% in today's session to close at 3738. the NSE20 is Sub Saharan Africa's worst performing market in the month of July according to data provided by Bloomberg. Investors have shunned stocks in favor of debt instruments such as T-bills and Government bonds whose return is around 9%, inflation which stood at 15% in June is the main catalyst for investor apathy at the NSE. The shilling was slightly stronger against the green buck in today's session, in fact the last time i checked it was trading at 91 against the USD. CBK left its repo rate unchanged on Wednesday. Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...g-slightly-stronger.html
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hisah		#180 Posted : Saturday, July 30, 2011 8:52:53 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		[quote=the deal]The NSE20 gained 5 points or 0.41% in today's session to close at 3738. the NSE20 is Sub Saharan Africa's worst performing market in the month of July according to data provided by Bloomberg. Investors have shunned stocks in favor of debt instruments such as T-bills and Government bonds whose return is around 9%, inflation which stood at 15% in June is the main catalyst for investor apathy at the NSE. The shilling was slightly stronger against the green buck in today's session, in fact the last time i checked it was trading at 91 against the USD. CBK left its repo rate unchanged on Wednesday. Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...-slightly-stronger.html[/quote] Ah, more bad news pimping by the media Buy bad news. Sell good news. Doesn't make sense does it Here is an example which you can use to relate with the news and volume spreads. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aXIE-2BbeA $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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