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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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MaichBlack wrote:actuarywahisa wrote:This allegation is such a big deal! I think the authorities are too quiet. Shouldn't someone be moving to establish the truth?
The realities are either that there are hidden NPLs as alleged or not. Assuming that one is not an insider, right now it boils down to whether one is a risk taker or not. True. Something smells really bad here. I don't buy this management bullshit of "client confidentiality", "not commenting on matters pending in court" bla bla bla. The management should have given more information even if it is not customer - specific. For example "The NPLs for the period bla bla bla were as reported in our financials on x, y, z and any other information to the contrary is not true.". Or "We are reviewing bla bla bla and s comprehensive report will be availed on x, y, z". What these guys are doing is attacking the guy instead of the facts. To me, that is a red flag. I really need to throw more money at this counter but the management response to this accusations is giving me doubts!!! Huyu mjamaa aongei bwana, kunaauwezekano ni kwa sababu amemeza chura kubwa. Speakup and prove us wrong ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,836
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muandiwambeu wrote:MaichBlack wrote:actuarywahisa wrote:This allegation is such a big deal! I think the authorities are too quiet. Shouldn't someone be moving to establish the truth?
The realities are either that there are hidden NPLs as alleged or not. Assuming that one is not an insider, right now it boils down to whether one is a risk taker or not. True. Something smells really bad here. I don't buy this management bullshit of "client confidentiality", "not commenting on matters pending in court" bla bla bla. The management should have given more information even if it is not customer - specific. For example "The NPLs for the period bla bla bla were as reported in our financials on x, y, z and any other information to the contrary is not true.". Or "We are reviewing bla bla bla and s comprehensive report will be availed on x, y, z". What these guys are doing is attacking the guy instead of the facts. To me, that is a red flag. I really need to throw more money at this counter but the management response to this accusations is giving me doubts!!! Huyu mjamaa aongei bwana, kunaauwezekano ni kwa sababu amemeza chura kubwa. Speakup and prove us wrong There is also a flip side. Someone might be stocking up and has made sure the bad news persists for sometime so that he can buy on the cheap. This is Kenya. Heck, this is the stock market (anywhere in the world!). All you have to do is to tell the right people during a round of golf "Don't respond yet. I am buying. And by the way, that investment you wanted us to rope you in, are you still interested? We can discuss when next week/month...". And with a toothless CMA and these white collar crimes never investigated, let alone prosecuted, anything is possible!!! Or then again, may be, lisemwalo lipo! And this is how people (the rest of us) make money. Instead of running away, investigate and get the information (Is this sh!t true or not) before it is common knowledge and pull the trigger or not. The problem sometimes is that the number of shares you want to buy might not be worth the effort. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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MaichBlack wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:MaichBlack wrote:actuarywahisa wrote:This allegation is such a big deal! I think the authorities are too quiet. Shouldn't someone be moving to establish the truth?
The realities are either that there are hidden NPLs as alleged or not. Assuming that one is not an insider, right now it boils down to whether one is a risk taker or not. True. Something smells really bad here. I don't buy this management bullshit of "client confidentiality", "not commenting on matters pending in court" bla bla bla. The management should have given more information even if it is not customer - specific. For example "The NPLs for the period bla bla bla were as reported in our financials on x, y, z and any other information to the contrary is not true.". Or "We are reviewing bla bla bla and s comprehensive report will be availed on x, y, z". What these guys are doing is attacking the guy instead of the facts. To me, that is a red flag. I really need to throw more money at this counter but the management response to this accusations is giving me doubts!!! Huyu mjamaa aongei bwana, kunaauwezekano ni kwa sababu amemeza chura kubwa. Speakup and prove us wrong There is also a flip side. Someone might be stocking up and has made sure the bad news persists for sometime so that he can buy on the cheap. This is Kenya. Heck, this is the stock market (anywhere in the world!). All you have to do is to tell the right people during a round of golf "Don't respond yet. I am buying. And by the way, that investment you wanted us to rope you in, are you still interested? We can discuss when next week/month...". And with a toothless CMA and these white collar crimes never investigated, let alone prosecuted, anything is possible!!! Or then again, may be, lisemwalo lipo! And this is how people (the rest of us) make money. Instead of running away, investigate and get the information (Is this sh!t true or not) before it is common knowledge and pull the trigger or not. The problem sometimes is that the number of shares you want to buy might not be worth the effort. Stocking what? Apart from the nerve chilling corporate  news that your life time investment is being dished out to FI's gachungwas like Sacramento, there is the devastating bond that will leave you properly taken to cleaners. Ngonja ngonja tu!  ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/21/2014 Posts: 184
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MaichBlack wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:MaichBlack wrote:actuarywahisa wrote:This allegation is such a big deal! I think the authorities are too quiet. Shouldn't someone be moving to establish the truth?
The realities are either that there are hidden NPLs as alleged or not. Assuming that one is not an insider, right now it boils down to whether one is a risk taker or not. True. Something smells really bad here. I don't buy this management bullshit of "client confidentiality", "not commenting on matters pending in court" bla bla bla. The management should have given more information even if it is not customer - specific. For example "The NPLs for the period bla bla bla were as reported in our financials on x, y, z and any other information to the contrary is not true.". Or "We are reviewing bla bla bla and s comprehensive report will be availed on x, y, z". What these guys are doing is attacking the guy instead of the facts. To me, that is a red flag. I really need to throw more money at this counter but the management response to this accusations is giving me doubts!!! Huyu mjamaa aongei bwana, kunaauwezekano ni kwa sababu amemeza chura kubwa. Speakup and prove us wrong There is also a flip side. Someone might be stocking up and has made sure the bad news persists for sometime so that he can buy on the cheap. This is Kenya. Heck, this is the stock market (anywhere in the world!). All you have to do is to tell the right people during a round of golf "Don't respond yet. I am buying. And by the way, that investment you wanted us to rope you in, are you still interested? We can discuss when next week/month...". And with a toothless CMA and these white collar crimes never investigated, let alone prosecuted, anything is possible!!! Or then again, may be, lisemwalo lipo! And this is how people (the rest of us) make money. Instead of running away, investigate and get the information (Is this sh!t true or not) before it is common knowledge and pull the trigger or not. The problem sometimes is that the number of shares you want to buy might not be worth the effort. That is what it'll boil down to and whether one's holding is small enough to ensure that they sneak through the stampede at the door. Either the story is right then- Things get confirmed, - ...... - Receiver manager appointed - Board and Senior Management changed - Bank Run from adverse mention of 'Housing Finance' - meanwhile 10% rule on day 2 if still not already suspended from trading... ..... - CMA suspends trading of shares - Unable to liquidate ( uchumi-style) for all still trapped in or Story is wrong- Things are confirmed as a non-story - People who were away from the counter based on this story come back - The long list of speculators join in as well - HF becomes one of the best performing counters going into 2018... -The risk takers possibly make crazy money... There are too many opportunities all around. Open your eyes and maybe you'll spot one
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,211 Location: nairobi
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actuarywahisa wrote:MaichBlack wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:MaichBlack wrote:actuarywahisa wrote:This allegation is such a big deal! I think the authorities are too quiet. Shouldn't someone be moving to establish the truth?
The realities are either that there are hidden NPLs as alleged or not. Assuming that one is not an insider, right now it boils down to whether one is a risk taker or not. True. Something smells really bad here. I don't buy this management bullshit of "client confidentiality", "not commenting on matters pending in court" bla bla bla. The management should have given more information even if it is not customer - specific. For example "The NPLs for the period bla bla bla were as reported in our financials on x, y, z and any other information to the contrary is not true.". Or "We are reviewing bla bla bla and s comprehensive report will be availed on x, y, z". What these guys are doing is attacking the guy instead of the facts. To me, that is a red flag. I really need to throw more money at this counter but the management response to this accusations is giving me doubts!!! Huyu mjamaa aongei bwana, kunaauwezekano ni kwa sababu amemeza chura kubwa. Speakup and prove us wrong There is also a flip side. Someone might be stocking up and has made sure the bad news persists for sometime so that he can buy on the cheap. This is Kenya. Heck, this is the stock market (anywhere in the world!). All you have to do is to tell the right people during a round of golf "Don't respond yet. I am buying. And by the way, that investment you wanted us to rope you in, are you still interested? We can discuss when next week/month...". And with a toothless CMA and these white collar crimes never investigated, let alone prosecuted, anything is possible!!! Or then again, may be, lisemwalo lipo! And this is how people (the rest of us) make money. Instead of running away, investigate and get the information (Is this sh!t true or not) before it is common knowledge and pull the trigger or not. The problem sometimes is that the number of shares you want to buy might not be worth the effort. That is what it'll boil down to and whether one's holding is small enough to ensure that they sneak through the stampede at the door. Either the story is right then- Things get confirmed, - ...... - Receiver manager appointed - Board and Senior Management changed - Bank Run from adverse mention of 'Housing Finance' - meanwhile 10% rule on day 2 if still not already suspended from trading... ..... - CMA suspends trading of shares - Unable to liquidate ( uchumi-style) for all still trapped in or Story is wrong- Things are confirmed as a non-story - People who were away from the counter based on this story come back - The long list of speculators join in as well - HF becomes one of the best performing counters going into 2018... -The risk takers possibly make crazy money... The extra low volume on this counter is encouraging
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,344 Location: Nairobi
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HFCK's response to Isika http://www.hfgroup.co.ke...p-press-release-2017.pdfGreedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Not convincing. This is just a blanket rebuttal. They should have focused on the specifics raised by their ex-employee. Or would that amount to contempt of court? Either way, HF is hiding skeletons in its closet and this was apparent from Q1 2016...their capital and liquidity ratios indicated something was afoot. These latest allegations reinforce that view. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,211 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:wale walio bado ndani ya hii gari.. chungeni mfuko!!! i will explain later The price is still way too high for this stock and with a rights issue on the way, I shall buy 100 shares at 45 or below and then wait.. Fair value ignoring all emotions is KES 32 your dream may have been fake,on release of rights news the share touched 50 today meaning everybody is willing to be part of the rights January 20.2015.. I foresaw the turmoil as guided by the exchange bar, but lust pulled me back into HF, now im down 52%, waiting for some info tomorrow upon which I will decide whether to bite the bullet or ride the bear
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,652
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obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:wale walio bado ndani ya hii gari.. chungeni mfuko!!! i will explain later The price is still way too high for this stock and with a rights issue on the way, I shall buy 100 shares at 45 or below and then wait.. Fair value ignoring all emotions is KES 32 your dream may have been fake,on release of rights news the share touched 50 today meaning everybody is willing to be part of the rights January 20.2015.. I foresaw the turmoil as guided by the exchange bar, but lust pulled me back into HF, now im down 52%, waiting for some info tomorrow upon which I will decide whether to bite the bullet or ride the bear I was pulled in by the Komarock housing scheme too much faith that Komarock heights would do well with the outer ring road but I should have scrutinized the capital structure and liquidity ratios. Tied up my capital in this value trap.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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wukan wrote:obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:wale walio bado ndani ya hii gari.. chungeni mfuko!!! i will explain later The price is still way too high for this stock and with a rights issue on the way, I shall buy 100 shares at 45 or below and then wait.. Fair value ignoring all emotions is KES 32 your dream may have been fake,on release of rights news the share touched 50 today meaning everybody is willing to be part of the rights January 20.2015.. I foresaw the turmoil as guided by the exchange bar, but lust pulled me back into HF, now im down 52%, waiting for some info tomorrow upon which I will decide whether to bite the bullet or ride the bear I was pulled in by the Komarock housing scheme too much faith that Komarock heights would do well with the outer ring road but I should have scrutinized the capital structure and liquidity ratios. Tied up my capital in this value trap. I also heard another bank saying it was duped by a report to sink 400m in uchumi and wants refund so you are not alone "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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