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PLAYING THE MARKET-A NEW YEAR RESOLUTION
sheep
#321 Posted : Friday, October 08, 2010 9:46:56 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
speculation is necessary for most investors to dissipate excessive energies which left unchecked can ruin your overall performance...its just like scratching an itch.just dont let it be your main focus.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
the deal
#322 Posted : Friday, October 08, 2010 1:14:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Stockmaster is the master of entry's n exits...never question this guy when he exits a counter...
stocksmaster
#323 Posted : Thursday, October 14, 2010 12:16:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 410
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
ACTIVITY 14: PURCHASE OF DIAMOND TRUST BANK 2000 SHARES @ KSH 118
DATE: 13/10/10

COST OF TRANSACTION=KSH 236,000
ADD 2% TRANSACTION COST = KSH 4700
TOTAL COST OF ACTIVITY 14 = KSH 240,700

RATIONALE OF PURCHASE
This counter has alot of upside potential if the half year results are used as a yard stick. Despite a poor dividend yield, the growth is fantastic. The Q3 results will paint a clearer picture but in the short term, a price of 145 (Trailing P/E of about 18 based on at least a 70% Y-O-Y growth for 2010)

I am still looking to increase my holding in DTB today although the supply of the share is constrained.

Happy hunting.
stocksmaster
#324 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 12:15:28 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 410
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
ACTIVITY 15: PURCHASE OF 2200 DTB SHARES AT KSH 119 PER SHARE.
DATE:14TH OCT. 2010

COST OF TRANSACTION:KSH 261,800
ADD 2% TRANSACTION COST: KSH 5200
TOTAL COST OF TRANSACTION:KSH 267,000

SUMMARY OF PORTFOLIO AFTER ACTIVITY 15:
4200 DTB SHARES
2111 SCBK SHARES
CASH IN HAND:KSH 5645

Supply of the DTBK shares today picked up and hence was able to pick up some more. As earlier stated, the bank should easily post 100% growth for the Q3 2010 compared to last years' Q3.

Happy hunting.
youcan'tstopusnow
#325 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 3:45:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
It is DTB that will eventually drive you past the inevitable mark of 100% return for the year
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Gatheuzi
#326 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 9:47:14 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
@ Stocksmaster, Wao!! seems we are holding DTB together!!!

Kudos. The only difference between my porfolion and yours is that instead of SCB I have Equity. I see banks being the king this year. I will keep whatever I have till Mar next year when full year results are out. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
bartum
#327 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 11:18:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
Gatheuzi wrote:
@ Stocksmaster, Wao!! seems we are holding DTB together!!!

Kudos. The only difference between my porfolion and yours is that instead of SCB I have Equity. I see banks being the king this year. I will keep whatever I have till Mar next year when full year results are out. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

me too i have diamond and equity
mwanahisa
#328 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 11:18:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@Stockmaster. I am glad to see you have picked up DTB. I hold some in my long-term portfolio which I bought prior to their last rights issue.

So far I would say DTB has been a dissapointment in terms of share price growth relative to other counters that I have held during the same period.

This has not been to do with the performance of the bank which has been stellar. Somehow, NSE players have never really taken a liking for the counter.

As a matter of fact, I was thinking of exiting the counter. I hold too many banks in any case.

I was going to put in all proceeds from DTB into Jubilee until first half results came through with over 100% profit growth. For the moment I continue to hold it, but I will be surprised if the 100% profit growth is repeated in Q3. Please note that most of the increase in H1 came from bond trading.
VituVingiSana
#329 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 11:46:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
DTB, Jubilee & TPSEA have great management... Nation is also OK but the newspapers' quality is lousy!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Iborian
#330 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 11:52:27 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
As far as I am concerned Jubilee is the real gem. They have a stake in all the others and in a lot more.

mwanahisa
#331 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 3:58:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Amen to that. If the bull continues into next year, Jubilee will be up there with the best of them.
guru267
#332 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 4:01:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
Amen to that. If the bull continues into next year, Jubilee will be up there with the best of them.


true dat Laughing out loudly
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
young
#333 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 4:12:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
2011 the year of jubilee insurance

hakuna matata
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
PKoli
#334 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 6:09:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
stocksmaster wrote:
ACTIVITY 15: PURCHASE OF 2200 DTB SHARES AT KSH 119 PER SHARE.
DATE:14TH OCT. 2010

COST OF TRANSACTION:KSH 261,800
ADD 2% TRANSACTION COST: KSH 5200
TOTAL COST OF TRANSACTION:KSH 267,000

SUMMARY OF PORTFOLIO AFTER ACTIVITY 15:
4200 DTB SHARES
2111 SCBK SHARES
CASH IN HAND:KSH 5645

Supply of the DTBK shares today picked up and hence was able to pick up some more. As earlier stated, the bank should easily post 100% growth for the Q3 2010 compared to last years' Q3.

Happy hunting.


Stockmaster, with your stock picking skills, you should have picked a couple of stocks. Since you are in the banking sector now, I would have picked half CFC half DTB. Both will give good returns in say 3 months, but I will bet on CFC for higher returns.
PKoli
#335 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 6:15:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
VituVingiSana wrote:
DTB, Jubilee & TPSEA have great management... Nation is also OK but the newspapers' quality is lousy!


Lately DTB and CFC have been moving huge volumes. This is uncharacteristic of these stocks! what is on the way?
mwanahisa
#336 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 6:34:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@PKoli. What is your rationale for preferring CFC over DTB? DTB seems to have better fundamentals or are you basing it on observed market behaviour? Ama it is the listing of CFC Ins Holdings?
PKoli
#337 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 6:44:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
mwanahisa wrote:
@PKoli. What is your rationale for preferring CFC over DTB? DTB seems to have better fundamentals or are you basing it on observed market behaviour? Ama it is the listing of CFC Ins Holdings?


During the merger, the Bank alone was not able to get its correct pricing. It should move to its correct pricing relative to its peers. That way, it should be trading at over 240, when you add other minor components like the insurance, it should trade at a range of 160 or thereabouts. Obviously, if it does not behave like KCB which has one of the lowest returns on its assets.
CFC has been aggressive and with the new management headed by the guy who grew Stanbic Ug, we should see some reasonable upsurge.
mwanahisa
#338 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 9:41:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
PKoli wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
@PKoli. What is your rationale for preferring CFC over DTB? DTB seems to have better fundamentals or are you basing it on observed market behaviour? Ama it is the listing of CFC Ins Holdings?


During the merger, the Bank alone was not able to get its correct pricing. It should move to its correct pricing relative to its peers. That way, it should be trading at over 240, when you add other minor components like the insurance, it should trade at a range of 160 or thereabouts. Obviously, if it does not behave like KCB which has one of the lowest returns on its assets.
CFC has been aggressive and with the new management headed by the guy who grew Stanbic Ug, we should see some reasonable upsurge.


Pkoli. Even if the deal has not come through, it appears that you are already enjoying stuff from your own cache. Read your post above again - the whole is much less than the sum of the parts. 240 against 160!!!

I have my reservations about CFC Stanbic. The bank made Kshs 725,270,000 PAT in H1. Total H1 for the Group was Kshs 677,962,000 PAT. This equates to EPS of 2.65 and 2.48 respectively. Insurance, Financial Services and/or the overheads at CFC Stanbic Holdings apparently ate into some of the bank's profits. I raised this in a posting but I never got a satisfactory answer why and/or how come.

With the above figures, I say that CFC needs to grow its earnings by a big margin to get to the pricing level you have indicated i.e. 160. We know that Standard Bank bought into CFC Group at between 100-120. But it was at the height of the bull market and in retrospect it looks like they were shafted.

Contrast this with DTB. H1 2010 PAT stood at Kshs 1,160,851,000. EPS of Kshs 7.12. Remember DTB is all over East Africa as well and growing its footprint day by day.

On this one, I think you have it wrong unless you are reckoning that folks will want to speculate more on CFC Stanbic. On fundamentals, DTB is far superior.

Now let me go get myself something akin to the deal's Windhoek.
VituVingiSana
#339 Posted : Saturday, October 16, 2010 1:39:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
We know that Standard Bank bought into CFC Group at between 100-120. But it was at the height of the bull market and in retrospect it looks like they were shafted.
Stanbic was not shafted. They shafted us the CFC shareholders! They took a bank that had a solid clientele & scared them away to I&M Bank, NIC Bank, Prime Bank, CBA, Chase Bank, DTB, etc [Mid-market banks]...

High Net Worth & mid-sized firm have their own needs/requirements... You slight them & they will leave since these are RELATIONSHIPS...

At CFC there were relationships as folks moved up the ladder... The Stanbic way was different... Every 3 months a new face! Bullshit!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gatheuzi
#340 Posted : Saturday, October 16, 2010 9:23:20 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
@ vvs,

You are very right about the high staff turnover in the new outfit. I interact with them both as a customer and through my employer. As far as Iam concerned at a personal level, I will keep them. However from my employer perspective, we have lost track of the different account relationship managers we keep being assigned to after the previous ones left.

And like you can guess the relationship is no longer as cusomized as it used to be with the good old CFC.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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