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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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hisah
#161 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2011 8:28:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mainat wrote:
On sentiments, NSE is not oversold. On forward looking fundamentals, it is not oversold. On speculative trading, its oversold. Take your pick.

I hope the term fast trades makes it clear as speculative trading. The market is still far away from the dark sentiments in Jan 2009 that led to a fat tail - fundies disconnect (oversell). Still yet to get that stage where you buy in trailer loads and go on holiday.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#162 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2011 8:26:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@hisah. Do you see any other possible scenarios playing out, apart from the n.s.e ending up at 3000 points next year.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Cde Monomotapa
#163 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2011 8:55:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Aguytrying wrote:
@hisah. Do you see any other possible scenarios playing out, apart from the n.s.e ending up at 3000 points next year.

Why & how please.
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hisah
#164 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2011 4:27:52 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
@hisah. Do you see any other possible scenarios playing out, apart from the n.s.e ending up at 3000 points next year.

The current setup is bearish.

Unless NSE regains the 4400pt handle backed by good buy volume, selling pressure will persist. Fundies - a bullish inflation due to food costs, drought & fuel plus a weak Ksh just makes the sell cocktail potent. Politics - ocampo, extradictions, anglo fleecing et al; too much going on. A clue less CBK & out of sorts gubberment treasury policies is also making things dicey. Constant IMF GDP upgrades just dont help the outlook. Who needs their input while it is evident the surface is wet and can be clearly seen.
Global fundies - MENA unrest, eurozone debt issues & US debt drama all add to a potent cocktail.
Indeed a partly spooked wanjiku & foreigners... But the spooky theme at the moment is not as bad as during GFC. But should one country in europe snap (default), you know what to do...
A US default would make things... there are no words for it...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, July 28, 2011 4:42 AM | Reason: Not specified
guru267
#165 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2011 7:55:21 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:

The current setup is bearish.

Unless NSE regains the 4400pt handle backed by good buy volume, selling pressure will persist. Fundies - a bullish inflation due to food costs, drought & fuel plus a weak Ksh just makes the sell cocktail potent. Politics - ocampo, extradictions, anglo fleecing et al; too much going on. A clue less CBK & out of sorts gubberment treasury policies is also making things dicey. Constant IMF GDP upgrades just dont help the outlook. Who needs their input while it is evident the surface is wet and can be clearly seen.
Global fundies - MENA unrest, eurozone debt issues & US debt drama all add to a potent cocktail.
Indeed a partly spooked wanjiku & foreigners... But the spooky theme at the moment is not as bad as during GFC. But should one country in europe snap (default), you know what to do...
A US default would make things... there are no words for it...


@hisah all these factors you mention and yet the EA economy and corporate profits continue powering ahead like its all rosy and nothing is happening...

This is the time to BUY BUY BUY!!!!!

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Sober
#166 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2011 8:38:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
You know the NSE has bottomed out when eveready is the share with the highest gain.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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hisah
#167 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2011 9:49:35 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Guru - You have stated the same earnings strength countless times and I have answered them. Mr Market has not been interested since Nov 2010. Can we move on to something else like aussie & swissie hedges or gold and silver.

As u state, buy now. Tho this is a short term relief bounce. For speculators, good luck. For long term, not yet. The bearish sentiments are still not at a psychology extreme.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, July 28, 2011 9:50 AM | Reason: Not specified
the deal
#168 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2011 10:03:22 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Hisah the Sell off we have experienced on banks since 1Q was just smart money factoring in the slow down in earning's growth I.e there were massive Volumes in member around the 25-27 Sh range.

With CBK leaving the repo rate unchanged at 6.25% lets pick inflation at 22% by year end..and the Shilling maybe at a century against the USD...
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, July 28, 2011 10:09 AM | Reason: Not specified
Aguytrying
#169 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2011 10:12:31 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
the deal wrote:
@hisah correction; on RSI the NSE has been gravely oversold for the past 2 month...well KK shook off some of those overbought levels...we were once at 12bob before we crashed to 10 something levels...the market never anticipated 80%+ or an interim dividend...i was calling for a dividend because after looking at their cash flow statement...KK was sitting on alot of free cash...so even a 1 bob ID was possible just from FY 2010.

Just like the banks announcing last year super results & Q1 glossy results, they still got sold. KK will experience the same in coming weeks. Money has already been made. Buy the rumour, sell the news...


I have been thinking about your statement on KK,i studied the chart. its the bitter truth but its true. the reason the price was pushed up is because they knew about the ID, a 50% growth alone cant move anything in this current market. look at HFCK 70 something odd percent and it didnt even twitch.........they knew.........
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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the deal
#170 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2011 10:22:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
We are in a Bear Market...the sell off has some fundamentals to it...the economy is not doing well...unlike what the politicians wants u to believe...economy slowed down greatly in the 2Q and inflation will keep slowing it down...
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