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Coronavirus
masukuma
#1651 Posted : Thursday, May 07, 2020 2:46:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,823
Location: Nairobi
mpobiz wrote:
masukuma wrote:
mpobiz wrote:
masukuma wrote:

The disease was brought into that state 6 weeks ago - no measures, a president with a mindset that hii ni homa. The disease is taking whoever it can - leaving whomever it is leaving behind. Herd immunity requires 60%+ to be acquired for this type of disease. 60% of a population of 50,000,000 people is 30,000,000. So the drum will stop beating when we get to 30,000,000 infections. The Kenyan mortality rate from the group that we have caught is 4.4%. If the same rate was to apply uniformly it is expected that we shall have 1.3M deaths. If the rate is half of that - 700,000 deaths. 1% deaths is 300,000. That’s the sacrifice you need to make to appease the gods that confer herd immunity


Dear brother. I hope you dont find it offensive when I scoff at this things you are telling us here. I will even doubt your level of reasoning.
Tuskizane. You cannot base your calculations on the "Kenyan GOV" confirmed cases. You can only do such a calculation when the infection has been wiped out , a cure has been found , a working vaccine has been discovered. or in a more practical way if Kenyan testing capabilities could rival the U.S capabilities.
If Kenya had the capability of making mass tests like in the U.S. 100000 tests in a single day. My simple estimate tells me that Nairobi and mombasa alone would account to more than 2000 positive cases daily.
Simple reasoning tells me that an area like isilii the ratio of the infected and uninfected persons is 1:50 . This is based on the small number of people tested and the final outcome.
This means by now the number of the infected could be about 80k.
Now do your culculations based on 80k infected and 20 deaths.
In my simple estimate is that the death rate here is 0.0000025%.
If you relate that with your 30million infections we only get about 7500 deaths to achieve herd immunity.
This means nduthi accidents here are also a pandemic.
Nani atapinga hio. And give your reasons


Two issues with your reasoning
1) Dodgy Understanding of Spreading

The way you derive your 80,000 is dodgy... I asked you in previous examples why when people from contact tracing are tested - people with a KNOWN exposure to a TESTED AND KNOWN TO BE POSITIVE CASE - it's about 2%? GOK has not Sampled the 27,433 across the country so as to end up with a 2% hit rate - They are tracing from KNOWN CONTACT. Your expectation that the hit rate of a targetted tracing totally misunderstands how diseases (unlike information or ideas) spread. Diseases are contact based - information and ideas are broadcasted.

2: Dodgy application of assumptions

A ratio is based on 2 things - a numerator and a denominator. You picked the Numerator from the dodgy mathematics highlighted above BUT you insist on only picking the denominator (~20 deaths) from Government. you mistrust GOK information when it suits your assertions but trust it when it does. It's the same thing with Nigeria - those deaths being reported MUST be tested individually to be attributed to Covid (regardless to the fact that they spiked during a pandemic).


Testing of people from contact tracing is just an excuse for our very very very low testing capabilities.
In the western world there are massive testing sites all over the country that allow everybody to have access to be tested. Also the government has not stigmatized positive cases by throwing them into quarantine. You are just asked to stay home untill the situation worsens. So in General everbody is happy to be tested. Here even the few testing sites that we have are Generally empty.

This explains my second answer. The number of the infected is unknown that's why it's based on assumptions and estimates. The sick and the dead (denominator) are known. Or you want to tell us the government is hiding the actual number of the dead? Or the infected are running to hide and die in the Forrests. The desease has already spread. The govament should go and wait for the sick in hospitals and stop tomenting the General population.
..

@kaka my statement is clear. I have not said the infection is evenly spread. The bulk of the infected is in two towns as you can see. Nairobi and mombasa. But the 80k number is for the whole county.
they have started testing the truck drivers. That will give you a small picture of how the desease has spread across the country.



First, your explanation does not address the holes I poked in the methodology you used to come up with the numerator. The fact is there is testing albeit small, this testing is extremely focused on individuals KNOWN to have been exposed and is having very low hit rates. We know there are tests going on with the drivers. On 4th of May Uganda tested 2,061 samples at the border points and got 6 drivers +ve (0.29%). We have target tested 27,433 and we ended up with 582 positive (2.1%) but somehow your very high spread numbers are never shown in these highly targeted testings.

Secondly, the government has attributed 26 deaths to Covid but these are not the only deaths to have occured in Kenya. My question is - why didn't you create a methodology to attribute these non-Covid deaths to Covid as you have rubbished the Government's number of cases and created yours? Create your number of deaths away from the government figures. All those deaths attributed to witchcraft, spells, curses and evil eyes attribute them to covid.
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
sqft
#1652 Posted : Thursday, May 07, 2020 3:04:34 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 961
Location: Kenya
It must be painful when the school demands that you pay full fees (>1m) while the kid is at home due to corona with the school claiming learning is going on just because the school emailed an assignment or some zoom link to the kid. The school owner has told parents to pay up or leave.















Proverbs 13:11 Dishonest money dwindles away, but whoever gathers money little by little makes it grow.
Angelica _ann
#1653 Posted : Thursday, May 07, 2020 9:56:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
sqft wrote:
It must be painful when the school demands that you pay full fees (>1m) while the kid is at home due to corona with the school claiming learning is going on just because the school emailed an assignment or some zoom link to the kid. The school owner has told parents to pay up or leave.










Let them pay, that is what class is all about. Such behavior are reserved for Kibra and Eastlands.






In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
murchr
#1654 Posted : Thursday, May 07, 2020 11:44:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
WallStreet Journal wrote:
The new coronavirus has been found in the semen of infected individuals, according to Chinese researchers, raising the prospect that the virus could be sexually transmitted.

The study, other researchers warn, also raises many questions. It doesn’t explain how much viral load was present in the sperm; nor did it examine whether the virus can be transmitted through sexual activity. The study, conducted at China’s Shangqiu Municipal Hospital, was described in a research letter published Thursday by the JAMA Network of medical...

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
masukuma
#1655 Posted : Friday, May 08, 2020 12:23:48 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,823
Location: Nairobi
kaka2za
#1656 Posted : Friday, May 08, 2020 12:58:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/3/2008
Posts: 4,058
Location: Gwitu


Minorities are dying in higher numbers in UK.
What's puzzling is that the trend has not been replicated in India and Africa.

I am starting to think that the BCG story had some weight.
Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
mpobiz
#1657 Posted : Friday, May 08, 2020 1:26:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/10/2010
Posts: 2,264


Let me start from your previous maswali
Mine are just estimates. You are supposed to poke as many holes as you can. But I don't know why its closer to the truth than your so called scientific culculations based on minuscule data. The term target testing, as beautiful as the words are is just another name of we can't do mass testing. Your close to 30k tests in 2 months is what the U.K does in a few hours. And they have tested more than 1m persons.

One Wazuan asked a very simple question a few weeks ago.
China
Italy
Spain
Germany
France
UK
All this nation's have seen disaster. But it wasn't untill this disaster reached U.S that it become a black man problem.
Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
wukan
#1658 Posted : Friday, May 08, 2020 7:36:47 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
So turns out that in New York 66% of those hospitalized were the ones who stayed at home. Homeless people were like 2% of the hospitalizations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZ7Bv41T0lw


Anyone watched 'World War Z'? There is this part where Gerry Lane(Brad Pitt) says that "I used to work in danger zones and people who moved survived and those who didn't...movement is life...you have a better chance if you come with us"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JNw8PP5qgo

masukuma
#1659 Posted : Friday, May 08, 2020 10:22:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,823
Location: Nairobi
mpobiz wrote:


Let me start from your previous maswali
Mine are just estimates. You are supposed to poke as many holes as you can. But I don't know why its closer to the truth than your so called scientific culculations based on minuscule data. The term target testing, as beautiful as the words are is just another name of we can't do mass testing. Your close to 30k tests in 2 months is what the U.K does in a few hours. And they have tested more than 1m persons.

One Wazuan asked a very simple question a few weeks ago.
China
Italy
Spain
Germany
France
UK
All this nation's have seen disaster. But it wasn't untill this disaster reached U.S that it become a black man problem.


Because of ignorance and ignoring facts that's why you need to be reminded that "IT'S A BLACK MAN'S PROBLEM TOO!". There is nothing special in your biology that makes you immune to this thing - so tuwache ujuaji!
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
mpobiz
#1660 Posted : Friday, May 08, 2020 12:14:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/10/2010
Posts: 2,264
masukuma wrote:
mpobiz wrote:


Let me start from your previous maswali
Mine are just estimates. You are supposed to poke as many holes as you can. But I don't know why its closer to the truth than your so called scientific culculations based on minuscule data. The term target testing, as beautiful as the words are is just another name of we can't do mass testing. Your close to 30k tests in 2 months is what the U.K does in a few hours. And they have tested more than 1m persons.

One Wazuan asked a very simple question a few weeks ago.
China
Italy
Spain
Germany
France
UK
All this nation's have seen disaster. But it wasn't untill this disaster reached U.S that it become a black man problem.


Because of ignorance and ignoring facts that's why you need to be reminded that "IT'S A BLACK MAN'S PROBLEM TOO!". There is nothing special in your biology that makes you immune to this thing - so tuwache ujuaji!



Wewe kweli uko na matatizo. What facts are you talking about?
And don't you think the black man is intelligent enough to know when he has a problem?
I hope you understand that when we talk of immunity we actually mean that we are not adversely affected.(mild or no symptoms) . Your government has confirmed that. How did they come up with that idea with only 20k tests in 2 months? They are doing the same calculations I am doing.
Go to isilii today and tell me if there is a true lockdown. Mombasa oldtown everybody left. The police are doing G4S services there.

Listen.

https://youtu.be/8NCwR5CdB9M
Politics is just things to keep the people divided and foolish and put your trust in men and none of them can do nothing for you...
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