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Ericsson		#1651 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 11:11:14 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI		VituVingiSana wrote: Pg 64 30% Market Share No mention of which firms/bottlers constitute Almasi. Or ownership in each. FY17 - 15mn cases FY18 - 18mn cases (goal) FY19 - 23mn cases (goal) @Horton - What's the year end? When would you get the next annual report? I would not mind buying a few Almasi so I can get additional info. Almasi was formed after the amalgamation of the following; --Mt Kenya Bottlers --Kisii Bottlers --Rift Valley Bottlers Ownership is 100% in all of them. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana		#1652 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 11:15:25 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,343 Location: Nairobi		Horton wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: Ericsson wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: @horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful! What's Almasi's EPS? What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider 😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁 I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? I do not know Questions: Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect? Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium? Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x Any other FMCG PERs? If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon? The worst case scenario is ZERO. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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Horton		#1653 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 12:15:42 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi		VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: Ericsson wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: @horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful! What's Almasi's EPS? What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider 😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁 I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? I do not know Questions: Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect? Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium? Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x Any other FMCG PERs? If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon? The worst case scenario is ZERO. There you go. Kama ARM I guess. So as you invest think about their valuation metrics. @Ericsson had expressed his uneasiness about this a while back. I didn’t think much until I really dug in. Thereafter sold all my shares here. Perhaps 28/- is a good entry point but there are other companies with great value on the market.
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VituVingiSana		#1654 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 1:09:11 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,343 Location: Nairobi		Horton wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: Ericsson wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: @horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful! What's Almasi's EPS? What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider 😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁 I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? I do not know Questions: Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect? Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium? Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x Any other FMCG PERs? If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon? The worst case scenario is ZERO. There you go. Kama ARM I guess. So as you invest think about their valuation metrics. @Ericsson had expressed his uneasiness about this a while back. I didn’t think much until I really dug in. Thereafter sold all my shares here. Perhaps 28/- is a good entry point but there are other companies with great value on the market. All firms, in a worst case scenario, are valued at ZERO. There are no guarantees. Safcom: A new invention that allows extremely cheap internet access. Or calls. EABL: We become an islamic state. Almasi: Folks decide to give up sugary drinks. Back to Almasi and Centum. More research required given I am looking at Centum as a potential "Core Holding" [It's more complex given the multiple businesses and aggressive management] YES. It's the 28/- that's attractive. Even if I deducted 20% from 73 = 57 this is 50% PB. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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Horton		#1655 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 1:23:31 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi		VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: Horton wrote: Ericsson wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: @horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful! What's Almasi's EPS? What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider 😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁 I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? I do not know Questions: Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect? Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium? Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x Any other FMCG PERs? If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon? The worst case scenario is ZERO. There you go. Kama ARM I guess. So as you invest think about their valuation metrics. @Ericsson had expressed his uneasiness about this a while back. I didn’t think much until I really dug in. Thereafter sold all my shares here. Perhaps 28/- is a good entry point but there are other companies with great value on the market. All firms, in a worst case scenario, are valued at ZERO. There are no guarantees. Safcom: A new invention that allows extremely cheap internet access. Or calls. EABL: We become an islamic state. Almasi: Folks decide to give up sugary drinks. Back to Almasi and Centum. More research required given I am looking at Centum as a potential "Core Holding" [It's more complex given the multiple businesses and aggressive management] YES. It's the 28/- that's attractive. Even if I deducted 20% from 73 = 57 this is 50% PB. Best wishes
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VituVingiSana		#1656 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 2:40:15 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,343 Location: Nairobi		It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum. And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies. KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight Unga - Maize drama Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization Agriculture - Extortion at the county level Fuel - Taxes and more taxes @Horton - Thanks @Ericsson - Thanks Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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mwekez@ji		#1657 Posted : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 9:59:47 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		VituVingiSana wrote: It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum. And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies. KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight Unga - Maize drama Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization Agriculture - Extortion at the county level Fuel - Taxes and more taxes @Horton - Thanks @Ericsson - Thanks @VVS Centum Investment will announce their 1H19 results on Monday 26th November 2018. The Company will host an Investor Briefing at the Villa Rosa Kempinski, starting 7:00am EAT (GMT +3) In addition, the Company will hold a Conference Call at 3:30pm EAT (GMT +3) and you may signup for that call by clicking on the link below. http://services.choruscall.za.c...SecurityString=36653b3ae
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VituVingiSana		#1658 Posted : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 10:22:27 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,343 Location: Nairobi		mwekez@ji wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum. And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies. KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight Unga - Maize drama Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization Agriculture - Extortion at the county level Fuel - Taxes and more taxes @Horton - Thanks @Ericsson - Thanks @VVS Centum Investment will announce their 1H19 results on Monday 26th November 2018. The Company will host an Investor Briefing at the Villa Rosa Kempinski, starting 7:00am EAT (GMT +3) In addition, the Company will hold a Conference Call at 3:30pm EAT (GMT +3) and you may signup for that call by clicking on the link below. http://services.choruscall.za.c...SecurityString=36653b3ae Thanks! Are you with Centum? Or a broker? I will sign up for the CC Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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mwekez@ji		#1659 Posted : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 10:58:04 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		VituVingiSana wrote: mwekez@ji wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum. And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies. KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight Unga - Maize drama Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization Agriculture - Extortion at the county level Fuel - Taxes and more taxes @Horton - Thanks @Ericsson - Thanks @VVS Centum Investment will announce their 1H19 results on Monday 26th November 2018. The Company will host an Investor Briefing at the Villa Rosa Kempinski, starting 7:00am EAT (GMT +3) In addition, the Company will hold a Conference Call at 3:30pm EAT (GMT +3) and you may signup for that call by clicking on the link below. http://services.choruscall.za.c...SecurityString=36653b3ae Thanks! Are you with Centum? Or a broker? I will sign up for the CC Anytime! Am not with either. Got the info from Kestrel Capital
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Horton		#1660 Posted : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 11:19:52 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi		Skin in the game ..... overrated? So the last couple of firms to go down the dark road ARM & DEACONS CEOs both had skin in the game. Is this trait overrated?
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