Dear brother. I hope you dont find it offensive when I scoff at this things you are telling us here. I will even doubt your level of reasoning.
Tuskizane. You cannot base your calculations on the "Kenyan GOV" confirmed cases. You can only do such a calculation when the infection has been wiped out , a cure has been found , a working vaccine has been discovered. or in a more practical way if Kenyan testing capabilities could rival the U.S capabilities.
If Kenya had the capability of making mass tests like in the U.S. 100000 tests in a single day. My simple estimate tells me that Nairobi and mombasa alone would account to more than 2000 positive cases daily.
Simple reasoning tells me that an area like isilii the ratio of the infected and uninfected persons is 1:50 . This is based on the small number of people tested and the final outcome.
This means by now the number of the infected could be about 80k.
Now do your culculations based on 80k infected and 20 deaths.
In my simple estimate is that the death rate here is 0.0000025%.
If you relate that with your 30million infections we only get about 7500 deaths to achieve herd immunity.
This means nduthi accidents here are also a pandemic.
Nani atapinga hio. And give your reasons

Two issues with your reasoning
1) Dodgy Understanding of Spreading

The way you derive your 80,000 is dodgy... I asked you in previous examples why when people from contact tracing are tested - people with a KNOWN exposure to a TESTED AND KNOWN TO BE POSITIVE CASE - it's about 2%? GOK has not Sampled the 27,433 across the country so as to end up with a 2% hit rate - They are tracing from KNOWN CONTACT. Your expectation that the hit rate of a targetted tracing totally misunderstands how diseases (unlike information or ideas) spread. Diseases are contact based - information and ideas are broadcasted.

2: Dodgy application of assumptions

A ratio is based on 2 things - a numerator and a denominator. You picked the Numerator from the dodgy mathematics highlighted above BUT you insist on only picking the denominator (~20 deaths) from Government. you mistrust GOK information when it suits your assertions but trust it when it does. It's the same thing with Nigeria - those deaths being reported MUST be tested individually to be attributed to Covid (regardless to the fact that they spiked during a pandemic).

Testing of people from contact tracing is just an excuse for our very very very low testing capabilities.
In the western world there are massive testing sites all over the country that allow everybody to have access to be tested. Also the government has not stigmatized positive cases by throwing them into quarantine. You are just asked to stay home untill the situation worsens. So in General everbody is happy to be tested. Here even the few testing sites that we have are Generally empty.

This explains my second answer. The number of the infected is unknown that's why it's based on assumptions and estimates. The sick and the dead (denominator) are known. Or you want to tell us the government is hiding the actual number of the dead? Or the infected are running to hide and die in the Forrests. The desease has already spread. The govament should go and wait for the sick in hospitals and stop tomenting the General population.
..

@kaka my statement is clear. I have not said the infection is evenly spread. The bulk of the infected is in two towns as you can see. Nairobi and mombasa. But the 80k number is for the whole county.
they have started testing the truck drivers. That will give you a small picture of how the desease has spread across the country.

IKR!
I saw someone on twitter asking people to choose a “death number” i.e the number of deaths that they would accept in exchange for jobs-A physician no less!

Mutations are random and can end up in one of 3 possible stathes
1) some are advantageous to the virus and disadvantageous to the host (becomes more infections and/or lethal)
2) can be neutral - no effect on the virus or the host
3) can be detrimental for the virus and consequently advantageous for the host.

We have billions if not trillions of viruses replicating now within bodies of people - these 3 mutations are taking place to some extent. What will the outcome be? I don't know - that's why we need to crush it.