The International Martha F... were around Nairobi for assessment and they left without releasing the usual public statement told GoK to read and comment (balls were squeezed). These Martha Fs are no joke, next time they will just break GoK knee caps. They went to Haiti demanded end of fuel subsidies and praised the govt for cutting fuel subsidies. Long story short the Haitian govt collapsed and went home after violent street protests. Same thing in Jordan.

How are folks preparing when sh*t hits the fan? I foresee a very shaky next one year.

Freezing of projects is just but the start of what will be a long, arduous and acrimonious journey. Even some of the ones that had already commenced will stall as is already happening. Remember it is the IMF calling the shots not GoK. For now thank the heavens KES has remained stable.

Next comes increased taxation...that is when the rubber will meet the road aka public anger and protests. Alot of political capital(heads) will have to be spent or sacrificed to appease the enraged masses - think in lines of the corruption hullabaloo engulfing the country - just to steady the political ship.

Not only has public spending been less than prudent, both current and future opex + capex don't appear to be funnelled to enhance KE's repayment capabilities. Some are a complete waste.

KES losing ground vs the dollar adds strenuous weight on the debt burden and most importantly worsens the debt service ratio which makes repayment of interest and principal sums due almost impossible.

Depending on the debt holder various options exist none of which is exactly palatable:

1. Default then blacklisting quickly follows. The resultant interest rates will make the pre-cap interest rates look like free money.

2. Cede strategic assets, which is something China is particularly fond of.

3. Restructurings and haircuts aka soft defaults which implies KE econ will be in a slump for a long time.

4. Inflation finance.

5. A fortuitous forfeiture by some creditors - not sure exactly who this might be and is very unlikely.

For a sneak peek into the future, have look at what is happening to MENA countries(take your pick of the lot) or even Haiti.

FYI politics had nothing to do with last year's economic slowdown.

How best can an individual hedge against run off inflation? I am wondering if a home safe is really a good idea. Quite risky as the help will tell the watchman who will then bring some thugs. How about a bank safe deposit box stashed with usd and euro? How does one buy bitcoins?

With the impending doom, what will happen to the monkeys i hold at the NSE? Will i be left holding feathers ama what?