My 2 cents wrote:obiero wrote:My 2 cents wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:My 2 cents wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:Exchange Bar Q4 2021, PBT in KES B:
KCB 49.1 Actual 47.8
EQTY 48.3 Actual 51.8
COOP 22.4 Actual 22.6
ABSA 16.1 Actual 15.5
NCBA 15.1 Actual 15.03
SCBK 11.7 Actual 12.6
I&M 11.6 Actual 12.4
DTB 9.8 Actual 6.6
STBC 9.3 Actual 9.75
HFCK -0.46
I&M 2x DTB when not so long ago DTB>I&M
Similarly KCB used to make multiples of Equity but now Equity > KCB
I&M is posting similar PBT as SCBK!
Comparisons of PBT are problematic when banks have extremely different provisioning for bad loans. They use this to adjust PBT figures up and down depending on their motives.
Then what would you recommend one uses for comparison?
For future growth prospects, I look at growth in customer deposits.
Not a bad measure but deposits fly between banks on a whim
Total customer deposits in tier 1 banks are not volatile, most move up between 5 - 10% every year. I focus on the % growth. So it was alarming that in 2021, Stanbic had negative growth. This is not common with tier 1s.
Increasing deposits is easy - even at Tier 1 banks - if you do not care about the cost of deposits. I don't know if it is still the case but there was a time when you could shop around large deposits amongst banks at the EOQ/EOY.
Stanbic may have taken a view that it didn't want expensive deposits aka "hot money" or there were large withdrawals. Trends over years > one-time events.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett