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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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Ericsson
#1591 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2016 4:24:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
@VVS
You are right. Obiero hates facts.
Closing price is down today and someone says 7% up.
That 13.60 is just someone who tried to dump at that price and there were no bidders
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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hisah
#1592 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2016 4:25:05 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
obiero wrote:
7% up today... I told you I know Kevin personally. Nothing true in his allegations

VWAP closed @12.40 down 15cts from previous close.

@obiero, I hope you are speculating here. The long term cartoon is not forecasting a pretty picture.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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obiero
#1593 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2016 5:08:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
obiero wrote:
7% up today... I told you I know Kevin personally. Nothing true in his allegations

VWAP closed @12.40 down 15cts from previous close.

@obiero, I hope you are speculating here. The long term cartoon is not forecasting a pretty picture.

@Ericsson @Hisah at some point within the day, my statement was true.. I am purely speculating here, but with sufficient confidence

KQ ABP 4.26
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sparkly
#1594 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2016 5:16:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
What does the cartoon say? From the monthly chart (long term) HFCK still has a long way down to go! All time vol spike appeared in Dec 2015 between the 21 - 24 price level. Since then the price has nosedived! That's a nasty signal with all that heavy volume in action. Caution. 10.00 handle had better hold!

If it breaks that psychological multiyear support level the next level is 7.50 - 8.50 which if it fails to hold we have a sizable air pocket down to the next level at 2.50 - 3.00 (2001 all time low)!



By the time HF craters towards 3.00 the KE real estate will be in the junk yard with housing prices bleeding badly! That will be trigger a credit systemic event since the banks hold real estate in their books too.

Will HF trigger the peak in real estate?

HF price broke below the GFC price trough. In my interpretation of price movement that is a very bad sign coz in essence it is saying that current market conditions are worse than back then (allowing for irrationality of course). And that's quite a statement. Credit growth has also shrunk to GFC levels...excellent correlation.

All in all, HF is a highly cyclical stock - rallies hard during a bull and crashes badly in a bear with zero exceptions - it perfectly dovetails the market trend with minimal divergences here and there. Strong bear results in ridiculous HF pricing. I think HF is foreshadowing the overall market trend at this point in time.

Peak real estate + peak bonds = jaw dropping stuff. Real estate in KE is more or less in the plateau stage before a correction/bear begins. Ditto for bonds. If both happen at roughly the same time frame HF @2.5-3.00 will print. We will need a new word for discounts.



HFC to substantially default on the bond. Bookmark this post.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Pesa Nane
#1595 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2016 5:22:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
lochaz-index wrote:
hisah wrote:
What does the cartoon say? From the monthly chart (long term) HFCK still has a long way down to go! All time vol spike appeared in Dec 2015 between the 21 - 24 price level. Since then the price has nosedived! That's a nasty signal with all that heavy volume in action. Caution. 10.00 handle had better hold!

If it breaks that psychological multiyear support level the next level is 7.50 - 8.50 which if it fails to hold we have a sizable air pocket down to the next level at 2.50 - 3.00 (2001 all time low)!



By the time HF craters towards 3.00 the KE real estate will be in the junk yard with housing prices bleeding badly! That will be trigger a credit systemic event since the banks hold real estate in their books too.

Will HF trigger the peak in real estate?

HF price broke below the GFC price trough. In my interpretation of price movement that is a very bad sign coz in essence it is saying that current market conditions are worse than back then (allowing for irrationality of course). And that's quite a statement. Credit growth has also shrunk to GFC levels...excellent correlation.

All in all, HF is a highly cyclical stock - rallies hard during a bull and crashes badly in a bear with zero exceptions - it perfectly dovetails the market trend with minimal divergences here and there. Strong bear results in ridiculous HF pricing. I think HF is foreshadowing the overall market trend at this point in time.

Peak real estate + peak bonds = jaw dropping stuff. Real estate in KE is more or less in the plateau stage before a correction/bear begins. Ditto for bonds. If both happen at roughly the same time frame HF @2.5-3.00 will print. We will need a new word for discounts.


One that day I shall surely cry. Real cry with real tears!!
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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wukan
#1596 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2016 5:52:50 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,652
Deflation of real estate assets is one huge risk that will hit almost all banks. Find out from auctioneers if banks are able to force-sell securities in this environment. HF is taking the biggest hit right now because it is too exposed to real estate. Underwater mortgages will be here soon.

I still intend to scoop HF at low prices considering what CBK is doing with M1 money supply.
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obiero
#1597 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2016 6:06:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
wukan wrote:
Deflation of real estate assets is one huge risk that will hit almost all banks. Find out from auctioneers if banks are able to force-sell securities in this environment. HF is taking the biggest hit right now because it is too exposed to real estate. Underwater mortgages will be here soon.

I still intend to scoop HF at low prices considering what CBK is doing with M1 money supply.

Kuna comments funny sana hapa leo

KQ ABP 4.26
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MaichBlack
#1598 Posted : Wednesday, December 21, 2016 2:20:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,833
Flo-ology wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@Obiero
I see closing price of 12.55 gain of 4.58% and volume traded of 1,300.

The lack of support on volume since the slide began is telling.. We shall cross 14.5 before new years

@Obiero if I were you I would sell it after today's gain. This stock is not healthy. I won't give my reasons why I think it is un healthy.

Are we still in Wazua??? Let me confirm the url.

Oh, the fellow who posted this is barely a week old in Wazua. Let me assume he/she is ACTUALLY new!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack
#1599 Posted : Wednesday, December 21, 2016 2:23:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,833
Can we have a proper analysis of this stock by a fundie.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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instinct
#1600 Posted : Wednesday, December 21, 2016 3:20:05 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
MaichBlack wrote:
Can we have a proper analysis of this stock by a fundie.


agreed. there is too much noise...
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