[quote=VituVingiSana] Politicians are going to kill the sugar industry... http://www.nation.co.ke/...8/-/npgnq8/-/index.html[/quote]

Si kwa ubaya but I hope the sugar industry was in central province and we'd be talking a different story. Sugar is still a gold mine because unlike tea and coffee it's used as a sweetener for many things including that tea and coffee.

Sugar in Kenya seems to be going nowhere real fast. MSC is one counter that promises so much and delivers a tenth of the promise. Co-gen, Ethanol, TARDA, Carbon Credits etc were all promised like 5 years ago.

So far only Co-gen has seen the light of day and it is bringing about 5% of revenue. Ethanol will similarly add only 1.3 to revenue (less than 10%). PBT has been virtually stagnant for ages.

Do you really expect this counter to make you rich? Not me!

Down to 10.95...no wonder @QW has gone missing...LOL...

I was smiling when I bought mine at KES 12, with a 20% expectation in two weeks. I might just get it, but on the negative side

Mumias will only stabilise after 2012 once the effects of the COMESA Rules on the sugar industry are fully internalised. The fact of the matter is external sugar is still cheaper than internally generated sugar. Meaning Mumias margins will get a beating once the flood gates are opened in 2012(I dont think COMESA will listen to any further extensions of Safeguards.)

@ Njung'e: What is the way forward? How can the local sugar companies compete? Or should the Western Sugar Belt think of another crop?

The argument that Mumias is diversifying to other products for revenue generation does not hold much. On a revenue generation point, when all the different revenue streams are factored in, sugar will still constitute 80% of Mumias Sugar Co. business (Sugar:co-generation:ethanol will be about 80:10:10). Thus Mumias revenues and profits will largely depend on its core business which is sugar.

Time will tell.

Happy hunting

With a volume of 7m shares traded, it looks like some sort of transfer from one account to the other. During the trading hours, there were no such huge demand or supply

I got advised but did not bail out, now I see know I should have taken the advise. The decision is becoming more and more difficult to make by the day.
I guess I now have to live with my poor decision - my sale order goes out on Thursday. I will observe for the next two days kwanza!
Pkoli, Gordon, Waithaka what your take.

The Mumias share imepata kichapo cha mbwa

Dont exite & sell Mumias share at lower price. I think big investors are playing the game. If you want to buy 10m share & current price is 11.60 for share. You sell 500k share with all demand from 11.60 to 10.90.Also make internal transfer of big volume @ 10.90 then ppl will exiting this stock & get supply at lowered price.We have not seen any bad news which effect the share price. Infact their performance for 2009/10 is better than previous year. PBT is gone up by 83%. ( from 1.1 b to 2.1bn) After releasing H1 result price will go up to 12. so dont exite.

My personal thoughts are informed by the fact that worldwide there is some looming sugar deficit due to droughts in main sugar producing countries such as Brazil. This will sustain reasonably high sugar prices, coupled with demand supply equation, will imply fairly high sugar prices. I therefore expect MSC to move to well over KES 13 per share. Of couse assuming that the political noise will die. Like I meantioned earlier, any positive pronouncement of the Tarda project will lead to significant stock rise.