Cons on KQ shares
1. No dividend up to 2030 and beyond. Earliest possibly 2032
2. Capitalization is not assured. GoK can fail to secure the funding based on the KQ books, which are not desirable in current state.
3. If strategic investment is not secured. Nationalization will be the only other real possibility and the same will lead a share suspension, followed by delisting, with a payout sum to be solely determined by GoK
4. Fly Ethiopia are doing major things at Bole. Times have changed for the Pride of Africa
5. Boeing being the preferred fleet type for KQ, is facing acute supply challenges, with new delivery backlog stretching to 2033. It means the existing fleet will continue to age, and MRO shall be costly
6. A1 fuel spike is incoming, thus assured reduction in operating margins, a depressed H1 2026 is guaranteed

Pros on KQ

1. Grounded big birds back in service. In next 10 days, the 777 returns for KQ to serve long haul, a win
2. It is unlikely, near-impossible for KQ to turn a profit in H1 2026, but 2027 should be a profitable year with the Afcon Cup inflows and possible travel stabilization post war
3. With confirmed stoppage of the Open Offer for minority shareholders, the USD 500,000,000 capital injection is the only critical play left on the KQ share
4. If you are unable to hold mid-term, say two to three years, you should have sold yesterday or nearest date to yesterday
5. In case you are liquid and able to go long haul, proceed to add new stock/average down at any price below KES 8.68, noting that the KQ share may give you more returns than you ever dreamed about.
6. Watch and learn