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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
kenyainvestor
#151 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 12:38:04 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
Magnetic Touch wrote:
The NSE bought a one way ticket early on in the year. Destination - below 3000 on the index. We are close to the halfway point towards the end of our journey.


Would you term this phenomena 'normal seasonal market activity'?
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Sober
#152 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 12:55:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Magnetic Touch wrote:
The NSE bought a one way ticket early on in the year. Destination - below 3000 on the index. We are close to the halfway point towards the end of our journey.


can someone tell me please when the market will rebound?! i dont wanna hear of the election talk because that means the index will be 900 considering the current rate of drowning.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
VituVingiSana
#153 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 1:05:06 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,367
Location: Nairobi
Election Fever - As we head towards the polls, it is an uncertain time since we have no idea who is the real front-runner.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#154 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 2:02:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Last Friday, i was optimistic of some small turnaround this week but the latest KPLC stunt jus stinks to the high heavens n might surely send the NSE well below 3,000 points in the not so distant future as the PNU n ODM intensify ways of getting campaign money!
@SufficientlyP
hisah
#155 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 9:13:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Traders...

NSE is now ready for a bounce. Happy now smile

Volume has gone through the index and the index is now flattening for a bounce. Selling pressure is ebbing. Techs - RSI so overbought - weekly to be precise since June 6th.

I'll be very simple with some very simple charts. Note these are fast trades, so no fundies analysis apply...

NSE - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=%5EN20I - Look at the volume

Counters likely to trend in tandem with the NSE bounce.
KCB - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KCB - Volume spike
NIC - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=NIC - Volume spike
Safcom - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=SCOM - Volume spike
CMC - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=CMC
CFCI - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=CFCI
COOP - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=COOP
Equity - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=EQTY
Jubilee - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=JUB
Stanchart - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=SCBK
Crown - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=BERG
Mumias - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=MSC - Forming an inverse H&S supported by volume and if the pattern plays out - target 8 - 8.20.
Total up, while KK will head down! http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=TOTL

So what are my grabs - KCB, NIC, Scom and some MSC in that order. KCB's volume @22.50 is too huge to ignore...

To watch out for volume.
NMG - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=NMG
KQ - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KQ
TPS - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=TPSE
Uchumi - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=UCHM
Centum - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=ICDC
Kengen - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KEGN
DTK - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=DTK - This has reached the objective of the H&S pattern @108 - 109. Strong support here.

Something interesting with CFC - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=CFC

Worst chart ever - Neveready aka paka since Jan 2011... Freefall to oblivion! Heart bypass triggered and on overdrive...

To be sold while NSE rebounds - KK - Many won't like this analogy but the volumes says so - peak volumes at highs = smart money exit - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KENO

And finally media signal, usually meant to scare you away from the upturn - http://www.nation.co.ke/...06/1206080/-/ux1o1kz/-/

NSE rebound level - 3800 - 3900. If it head to 4000 the better, but doubtful...

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kenyainvestor
#156 Posted : Tuesday, July 26, 2011 11:31:20 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
hisah, your posts are certainly a breath of fresh air in Wazua. Don't stopApplause Applause Applause Applause

You are right about you receiving a lot of flak about saying KenolKobil will fall.

Will today's brilliant results and interim dividend have no impact on the share price for the rest of the week?

I think a 50% increase might have been factored into the price, BUT certainly not an 80%+ rise and an interim dividend to boot...

NB:I am talking to the little part of your soul that is actually a fundi...smile
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hisah
#157 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2011 7:02:43 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kenyainvestor wrote:
hisah, your posts are certainly a breath of fresh air in Wazua. Don't stopApplause Applause Applause Applause

You are right about you receiving a lot of flak about saying KenolKobil will fall.

Will today's brilliant results and interim dividend have no impact on the share price for the rest of the week?

I think a 50% increase might have been factored into the price, BUT certainly not an 80%+ rise and an interim dividend to boot...

NB:I am talking to the little part of your soul that is actually a fundi...smile

I stated that my fast trades (short term NSE bounce) are not based on fundies. KK high volume at peak price is an exit of smart money & it has priced in the results which they knew before they pushed it to its peak price...
Had a look at Scangroup, this too will be sold or just remain flat.

Have a look at equity in June and spot the volume difference on its falling price...
That is how VSA (Vol spread analysis) works. This is how traders play fast trades.

If NSE is in an up momentum in Sept, BRITAK will rally like mad?! Just on psychology aka sentiments. Quite interesting it lists on a Friday... to lock in gains...

Disclaimer - This is not investment advice nor trading advice smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#158 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2011 7:47:35 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@hisah correction; on RSI the NSE has been gravely oversold for the past 2 month...well KK shook off some of those overbought levels...we were once at 12bob before we crashed to 10 something levels...the market never anticipated 80%+ or an interim dividend...i was calling for a dividend because after looking at their cash flow statement...KK was sitting on alot of free cash...so even a 1 bob ID was possible just from FY 2010.
Mainat
#159 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2011 7:54:50 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
On sentiments, NSE is not oversold. On forward looking fundamentals, it is not oversold. On speculative trading, its oversold. Take your pick.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
hisah
#160 Posted : Wednesday, July 27, 2011 8:22:08 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
@hisah correction; on RSI the NSE has been gravely oversold for the past 2 month...well KK shook off some of those overbought levels...we were once at 12bob before we crashed to 10 something levels...the market never anticipated 80%+ or an interim dividend...i was calling for a dividend because after looking at their cash flow statement...KK was sitting on alot of free cash...so even a 1 bob ID was possible just from FY 2010.

Just like the banks announcing last year super results & Q1 glossy results, they still got sold. KK will experience the same in coming weeks. Money has already been made. Buy the rumour, sell the news...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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