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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote: Safaricom appears to be developing an expanded flat ABC where wave A completed at about Kes 21.77. Now I expect the developing wave B to rise to about Kes 36.49 - 38.70. After completion of wave B I will expect Safcom to fall in wave C to significantly below Kes 21.77 (the wave A low). The above scenario is negated if Safcom continues down to below Kes 21.77 immediately. Am still for this sceanrio Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Safaricom appears to be developing an expanded flat ABC where wave A completed at about Kes 21.77. Now I expect the developing wave B to rise to about Kes 36.49 - 38.70. After completion of wave B I will expect Safcom to fall in wave C to significantly below Kes 21.77 (the wave A low). The above scenario is negated if Safcom continues down to below Kes 21.77 immediately. Am still for this sceanrio Still headed to 36??? In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,696 Location: NAIROBI
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Angelica _ann wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Safaricom appears to be developing an expanded flat ABC where wave A completed at about Kes 21.77. Now I expect the developing wave B to rise to about Kes 36.49 - 38.70. After completion of wave B I will expect Safcom to fall in wave C to significantly below Kes 21.77 (the wave A low). The above scenario is negated if Safcom continues down to below Kes 21.77 immediately. Am still for this sceanrio Still headed to 36??? Current market conditions don't allow. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 384
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mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!  DON'T BUY! Meaning? Don't buy NOW or don't buy AT ALL?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times And it came to pass .....2488
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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cnn wrote:wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times And it came to pass .....2488 Its only safcom holding the entire index up.If it drops we'll be back to pre Kibaki levels.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,696 Location: NAIROBI
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whiteowl wrote:cnn wrote:wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times And it came to pass .....2488 Its only safcom holding the entire index up.If it drops we'll be back to pre Kibaki levels. And it will be a buying opportunity for gem stocks Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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cnn wrote:wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times And it came to pass .....2488 We do not have "new" firms to replace those have become junk in the NSE20. Which were and are the constituents of the NSE20? I think firms like Mumias, KQ and Uchumi were once constituents. Then we had "consolidation" of 4:1 of KQ. Is this neutral in the index? Are bonuses neutral i.e. does the price adjustment also account for the bonus? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:cnn wrote:wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times And it came to pass .....2488 We do not have "new" firms to replace those have become junk in the NSE20. Which were and are the constituents of the NSE20? I think firms like Mumias, KQ and Uchumi were once constituents. Then we had "consolidation" of 4:1 of KQ. Is this neutral in the index? Are bonuses neutral i.e. does the price adjustment also account for the bonus? KQ was last month reinstated to the NSE20
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:cnn wrote:wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times And it came to pass .....2488 We do not have "new" firms to replace those have become junk in the NSE20. Which were and are the constituents of the NSE20? I think firms like Mumias, KQ and Uchumi were once constituents. Then we had "consolidation" of 4:1 of KQ. Is this neutral in the index? Are bonuses neutral i.e. does the price adjustment also account for the bonus? KQ was last month reinstated to the NSE20
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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VituVingiSana wrote:cnn wrote:wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times And it came to pass .....2488 We do not have "new" firms to replace those have become junk in the NSE20. Which were and are the constituents of the NSE20? I think firms like Mumias, KQ and Uchumi were once constituents. Then we had "consolidation" of 4:1 of KQ. Is this neutral in the index? Are bonuses neutral i.e. does the price adjustment also account for the bonus? True the likes of Mumias were part of the NSE 20 index in the past and looking at where they are trading ,the NSE 20 would be even lower were they still constituent counters That GFF low looks certain to be breached in the coming weeks .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The NSE 20 Share Index just printed below 2500 at 2488 Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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xtina wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Meaning? Don't buy NOW or don't buy AT ALL? Don't buy at all. I believe better buying opportunities will reappear at least 3 years hence. This is because one the bottom of the market is reached it may take time for the market to start rising meaningfully. Hold lots of hard cash . There will be better things to buy even if not shares. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:xtina wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Meaning? Don't buy NOW or don't buy AT ALL? Don't buy at all. I believe better buying opportunities will reappear at least 3 years hence. This is because one the bottom of the market is reached it may take time for the market to start rising meaningfully. Hold lots of hard cash . There will be better things to buy even if not shares. So one should wait until August 2022 before going back in? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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NAIROBI ALL SHARE INDEX (NASI)You can see a completed impulsive Elliott Wave represented by numbers 12345 to complete a larger degree wave (A) or (1). The completion of this impulse implies that the largest correction since the start of the impulse wave is at hand. In fact the correction has started (where we have wave A at about 139. Wave B is developing (as indicated by the UP ARROW) whose targets (ending) are the green lines/levels). Once wave B completes i will expect the NASI to drop to targets indicated by the blue lines and most especially the 122.07 or 105.60 being 50% and 61.8% retracement of the impulse.  The structure of an ideal impulse wave is shown below:  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:xtina wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Meaning? Don't buy NOW or don't buy AT ALL? Don't buy at all. I believe better buying opportunities will reappear at least 3 years hence. This is because one the bottom of the market is reached it may take time for the market to start rising meaningfully. Hold lots of hard cash . There will be better things to buy even if not shares. So one should wait until August 2022 before going back in? The 3 years is my educated  guess. While Elliott waves are useful in forecasting prices it may not work well in forecasting time/duration. So for me I would concentrate more on the structure of the waves as the bear market matures to forecast a bottom. Having said that i tried to apply Elliotticians' experience in arriving at the 3 year timeframe because the condition that pertain to a bear market (especially of stocks) may not allow a quick recovery of the market once the bottom is hit. It is also useful to remember that at some point trading may be halted in the market to try to stem the slide. The government will be working overtime to retain some semblance of the public's confidence in the market Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote:NAIROBI ALL SHARE INDEX (NASI)You can see a completed impulsive Elliott Wave represented by numbers 12345 to complete a larger degree wave (A) or (1). The completion of this impulse implies that the largest correction since the start of the impulse wave is at hand. In fact the correction has started (where we have wave A at about 139. Wave B is developing (as indicated by the UP ARROW) whose targets (ending) are the green lines/levels). Once wave B completes i will expect the NASI to drop to targets indicated by the blue lines and most especially the 122.07 or 105.60 being 50% and 61.8% retracement of the impulse. The structure of an ideal impulse wave is shown below: Thanks for the Elliot wave analysis on the NASI index. My rudimentary reading of the same suggested there is a cliff ahead. In the meantime, since there will be few or no new listings, upside is limited. Mid and small caps especially are in for a rough ride if this pans out. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,590
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The next president will need to have balls of steel to take Kenya through the cliff ahead. Painful decisions will need to be made if this pans out.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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wukan wrote:The next president will need to have balls of steel to take Kenya through the cliff ahead. Painful decisions will need to be made if this pans out. After ridding the crest and trough during gfc, I can first hand tell what it feels like for the stuck buddies. For gfc, a few brokerage firms folded up leaving revellers high and dry, this one has been very specific, financials and manufacturing. This is truly death by a thousand cuts. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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As of Aug. 21st 2019: mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Safaricom appears to be developing an expanded flat ABC where wave A completed at about Kes 21.77. Now I expect the developing wave B to rise to about Kes 36.49 - 38.70. After completion of wave B I will expect Safcom to fall in wave C to significantly below Kes 21.77 (the wave A low). The above scenario is negated if Safcom continues down to below Kes 21.77 immediately. Am still for this sceanrio Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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