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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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Depends on what one wants. Mumias? KQ? HAFR? or Good quality stocks? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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rwitre wrote:mnandii wrote: Mayoo! She's accelerating DOWNWARD! And some people think that stocks are at a bargain? That it's time to buy?    NSE slide sees dividend beat Treasury bill yieldsQuote:
The prevailing yields on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day T-bills stand at 6.59 percent, 7.37 percent and 8.99 percent respectively. NSE data shows as per Monday’s share prices, 17 firms had dividend yields that were at least matching or beating the lowest T-bill rate.
The rise in the dividend yields (dividend per share as a percentage of share price) is as a result of falling share prices at the NSE, with the benchmark NSE 20 share index trading at nine-year lows at 2646 points.
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Five out of the 11 listed banks have a dividend yield that is at least higher than the lowest T-bill yield of the 91-day paper, withBarclays Kenya (10.48 percent) and Standard Chartered (9.69 percent) offering a higher yield than the one-year T-bills.
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Other firms offering a dividend yield higher than the one-year T-bill include Kapchorua Tea at 10.93 percent, Williamson Tea at 12.16 percent, Nation Media Group at 10.78 percent, Umeme at 10.13 percent and Kenya Re at 11.31 percent.
ScanGroup has the highest dividend yield in the market at 34.78 percent, but this is on account of a special dividend of Sh3 per share that declared in April on top of an ordinary dividend of Sh1 per share.
Some of the firms offering high dividend yields have seen their share prices tumble in spite of recording a good financial performance. They have been dragged down by the overall bearish sentiment in the market.
As you wait to perfectly time the bottom, let the rest of us begin taking bits off the market.  If it continues heading south, we'll increase buying margins. Either way, buying season is here. Be careful! The market can remain irrational longer can you can remain solvent. I foresee a situation where you'll cash out at a loss. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:rwitre wrote:mnandii wrote: Mayoo! She's accelerating DOWNWARD! And some people think that stocks are at a bargain? That it's time to buy? NSE slide sees dividend beat Treasury bill yieldsQuote:
The prevailing yields on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day T-bills stand at 6.59 percent, 7.37 percent and 8.99 percent respectively. NSE data shows as per Monday’s share prices, 17 firms had dividend yields that were at least matching or beating the lowest T-bill rate.
The rise in the dividend yields (dividend per share as a percentage of share price) is as a result of falling share prices at the NSE, with the benchmark NSE 20 share index trading at nine-year lows at 2646 points.
.
.
.
Five out of the 11 listed banks have a dividend yield that is at least higher than the lowest T-bill yield of the 91-day paper, withBarclays Kenya (10.48 percent) and Standard Chartered (9.69 percent) offering a higher yield than the one-year T-bills.
.
Other firms offering a dividend yield higher than the one-year T-bill include Kapchorua Tea at 10.93 percent, Williamson Tea at 12.16 percent, Nation Media Group at 10.78 percent, Umeme at 10.13 percent and Kenya Re at 11.31 percent.
ScanGroup has the highest dividend yield in the market at 34.78 percent, but this is on account of a special dividend of Sh3 per share that declared in April on top of an ordinary dividend of Sh1 per share.
Some of the firms offering high dividend yields have seen their share prices tumble in spite of recording a good financial performance. They have been dragged down by the overall bearish sentiment in the market.
As you wait to perfectly time the bottom, let the rest of us begin taking bits off the market. If it continues heading south, we'll increase buying margins. Either way, buying season is here. Be careful! The market can remain irrational longer can you can remain solvent. I foresee a situation where you'll cash out at a loss. And remember my very first post in this thread perfectly timed a top in NSE 20 Share Index. I expect to do the same at the bottom of this bear. By then I expect most people will have been shaken out. That's how bottoms and tops are made! (Right when there are no more people to sell(at bottoms) or buy (at tops)). Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,590
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lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Global bond market has gone parabolic more so on the super long dated papers, KE is no exception which sets up a nice bond bull trap. Of concern is that back in 2008, NSE was reeling from the after effects of a global recession and PEV. At the moment, it is at the same levels pre-crisis both locally and internationally. NASI suggests if there is no bounce at current levels then it is a cliff fall ahead for mid and small caps. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The time to buy property will come. Let the market bleed first! HF puts Sh2bn customer houses up for auctionQuote:Listed mortgage lender Housing Finance (HF) has put on sale customer houses worth an estimated Sh2 billion, pointing to widespread distress in the real estate sector.
The lender has signed up auctioneers to sell off the houses and commercial buildings, in a move aimed at trimming its non-performing loans portfolio.
Majority of the 54 properties that are on sale in Nairobi and its environs are standalone houses and apartments whose reserve prices range from Sh3.4 million to Sh300 million.
The sales are a reflection of the struggles that mortgage holders are going through as thousands have lost jobs across different sectors of the economy. linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy!  DON'T BUY! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Banks and insurance companies (financial sector) are a risk in a bear market. When I mentioned this back in 2015s -2016s I was immediately greeted by hardcore fundamental analysts who pointed out that the fundamentals in the banking sector were strong. Well, we have our bear market now and banks and insurance companies are facing difficulties. We have banks that are now retrenching and Mwalimu Sacco bank has just lost a CEO. Remember banks loan out money using property as collateral? And the real estate industry is already in bear market territory! But there is worse to come so long as the NSE keeps falling. Mwalimu Sacco bank CEO quitsQuote:Naaman Ambunya, the chief executive of the Mwalimu National Sacco majority-owned Spire Bank has quit the troubled lender at a time it needs to turn around its struggling business.
The bank has tapped its former general manager, Onesmus Muia to replace Mr Ambunya in an acting capacity, the Business Daily has learnt.
In a letter to the bank chairman, Teresa Mutegi, Mr Ambunya underlined several challenges the bank faces, mainly delayed recapitalisation.
“I summarise the key matters confronting the bank that require immediate resolution—otherwise the financial sustainability of the bank is at a huge risk — which, have been presented before in board committees since 2017,” said Mr Ambunya.
“They include immediate stable funding without which deposit mobilisation efforts are unlikely to yield sufficient results for financial sustainability. The deposits held at the bank are largely for working capital and are very short term. The customers use the funds on a daily basis.” BD LinkWhy would a CEO of a bank quit? Is he concerned about the doomed future of the institution? Now the fundamentalists would have you believe that there are institutions with strong fundamentals and you just have to invest in those. Unfortunately for this kind of mindset the financial sector depends alot on positive sentiment. If there is even a whiff of trouble then the whole system almost certainly collapses. In any case banks do lend out more than they have in deposits. Therefore a bank run will most certainly ruin even the seemingly stable ones. Keep hard cash, buy 'hard' US dollars and consider buying cryptocurrencies (especially bitcoin once it falls back toward $5000). Disclaimer: This analysis depends wholly on the direction of the stock market (and the NSE 20 Share Index in particular) which I have forecasted to keep falling. If by some miracle the Index turns around and starts to rise strongly (above 4300 for example) then I will reconsider my conclusions herein. But for now, be safe, DO NOT BUY REAL ESTATE and certainly DO NOT BUY STOCKS. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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In the short run, the market is like a voting machine --tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine --assessing the substance of a company. - Benjamin Graham Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Hello Joined: 8/15/2019 Posts: 5
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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More bad news. More bad debts for financial institutions. One in five Kenyans trapped by bank loansQuote:One in every five borrowers in the country has defaulted on a loan in the past one year, a new survey has established, revealing tough times for households, farmers, business owners and workers hit by the harsh economy.
The Financial Sector Deepening (FSD) survey, which has the backing of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), shows that farmers who form the bedrock of the country’s economy are the worst-hit by the debt crisis.
Also affected are low-income households and employees whom the survey shows are living in a debt cycle.
“Levels of debt stress are high across the board but particularly for farmers, the elderly and the poor. For these groups, difficulties in repaying loans resulted in asset sales, cutting back on expenditure, or borrowing to repay existing loans,” says the FSD Kenya study published late last month.
CBK data shows commercial banks had total outstanding loans of Sh2.7 trillion as at the end of May this year, of which Sh430.1 billion was lent to private households. Even the wealthy are having a difficult time: Quote:“Two thirds of borrowers in the country have experienced at least two symptoms of debt stress including default,” it says. “This includes being over-leveraged and selling assets, borrowing and cutting expenditure to repay loans”.
The wealthy have not been spared from the dent stress either, says the study although employees are feeling the weight of the loans more.
“Compared to the poor, wealthier groups may be over-leveraged, with a third of wealthy borrowers having debt service payments of over half their monthly expenditure. For the employed this is as high as 40 percent,” says the study.
linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Remember Elliott Waves helped us to nail the start of the bear in the NSE when the index was still above 5400 points. It also helped us to nail the recent bottom in Bitcoin (see bitcoin threads). Perhaps it's time you reconsider your method of analyzing the market and settle to learn Elliott Waves? NB: The journey to unlearn all the ideas you have about investing and market analysis and to embrace Elliott Waves is not easy. But there is tons of material all over the internet and specifically at www.elliottwave.com to guide you. Welcome aboard Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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It will be painful for some in the short-term but in the long-term, I think a massive reduction in "personal loans" and "mobile lending" - usually for small amounts at crazy rates - will benefit the borrowers and economy. Whereas, I do not support "bans" and such, there is a social good issue at play. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Hello Joined: 8/16/2019 Posts: 3
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Which insurance companies are strong enough to make acquisitions
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,590
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mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times Closes at 2501....the bleeding continues ..September/October will be interesting especially with the likes of Safaricom and KCB going ex -dividend .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,696 Location: NAIROBI
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cnn wrote:wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NSE20 at 2545 some 185 points shy of the GFC low of 2360. This bear is excruciating to watch...death by a thousand cuts. Some bounce expected but with the global economy skiding precipitously do not expect it to last long. H2 is shaping up to be alot more interesting. Really painful to watch...never thought I would see the index this low. Insurance companies must be gnashing their teeth. On the other hand Tbills yields are low and banks are liquid, you would expect some action on equities. The market is lonely and deserted Nothing is impossible. Few people saw this coming. Its time to buy! DON'T BUY! Looks like NSE20 will go below 2500 today. interesting times Closes at 2501....the bleeding continues ..September/October will be interesting especially with the likes of Safaricom and KCB going ex -dividend . Harvest whatever you can and acquire whatever you can Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Back in 2016 lochaz-index wrote:cnn wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. I am still working with the the base case scenario that we will probably not bottom out till we are in sub 2000 territory. Working with that presupposition even the GFC low won't hold. Do you figure what kind of stock prices would bring NSE 20 to that? EABL@150,SAFCOM @10,Equity @ 21,Centum@24,BAT@450..Much as i look forward to nice discounts that would be insanity and i had enough of it in 09 to last me a lifetime. Kudos if you took advantage of the discounts back then. So far the hallmark of this bear has been stealth unlike the heavy metal version for the better part of the GFC period. We are 1year three months into its run currently (an 8 month limbo included) but the pain is yet to register. The GFC peak to trough crash lasted about 1 year and six months(with a one year back and forth stagnation) whereas the 2011 mini bear took 1 year and three months. In both periods, NSE20 was lagging the turmoil happening elsewhere. This time our market is frontrunning the chaos having shed close to 2000 points in the process. From the fundies side, both KE and global economic conditions don't look particularly encouraging, if anything they are a lot more anemic than during the GFC. The end of this business cycle is fast approaching and it will most likely resolve the excesses that were swept under the carpet in the recent past. It's anyone's guess what will break the markets but the worst is yet to come and the CB's won't know what hit them. If this plays out to its logical conclusion, GFC might end up looking like child's play when compared to what's unfolding. To bring the sub 2000 call into perspective, consider the GFC to have been a prelude/dress rehearsal to the main event. Most African economies are bound to overheat - some are already there - thanks to inflation and KE will not be an exception. As for the mentioned target prices after the crash has occurred, I will let Mr market to tackle that since anything is possible. On the flip side, if this bear turns out to be as severe as I think it will, the subsequent bull phase will redefine the word insanity. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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