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directional forecast
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,220 Location: nairobi
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karasinga wrote:Fundamental gurus. Let me know if I a getting this right.
Price adjustment after bonus issue= Market price ( last transaction price)/(1+bonus share%)
example COOP:
last transaction price =16.95
Bonus share %= 20% (1/5*100)
COOP price adjustment after bonus issue= 16.95/(1+0.2)
=16.95/1.2
=14.125
~14.13
Meaning fundamentally price below 14.13 is a discount
in learning mode. best wishes That's true.. A simpler way to approach the calculation is to note that if a holding was worth KES 16,950 prior to the bonus.. The new holding should still be at the same level
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,220 Location: nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:COOP: bonus aftermath Following yesterdays "thuggery"(>20% whack in PA with relatively low volume- SHIKU IS NOT ALLOWED TO DO THIS ), we have this in play  As stated previously, these News might play out in the corrective wave 2..If demand zone holds, please note we shall have an extended wave 3 and the next temporary halt might be around 22  disclaimer. learning is taking place. best wishes @karasinga 1.3m traded yesterday is relatively low volume? @ obiero. Depending on how you/I want to look at it, yes. Let me know if you need a chart example. @karasinga I will need a COOP chart example, spread out over 6 months or 1 year @Obiero accept and get back in, wacha maneno mingi!!! Hehe.. Okay. Lakini sirudi saa hii, even though I note that the price is tempting. it's basically gone below the dividend as well as pre bonus quote
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:COOP: bonus aftermath Following yesterdays "thuggery"(>20% whack in PA with relatively low volume- SHIKU IS NOT ALLOWED TO DO THIS ), we have this in play As stated previously, these News might play out in the corrective wave 2..If demand zone holds, please note we shall have an extended wave 3 and the next temporary halt might be around 22 disclaimer. learning is taking place. best wishes @karasinga 1.3m traded yesterday is relatively low volume? @ obiero. Depending on how you/I want to look at it, yes. Let me know if you need a chart example. @karasinga I will need a COOP chart example, spread out over 6 months or 1 year @Obiero accept and get back in, wacha maneno mingi!!! Hehe.. Okay. Lakini sirudi saa hii, even though I note that the price is tempting. it's basically gone below the dividend as well as pre bonus quote @ obiero, what do you mean by "gone below the dividend" Tell it like you are telling a 2 year old  or like this It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,220 Location: nairobi
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karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:COOP: bonus aftermath Following yesterdays "thuggery"(>20% whack in PA with relatively low volume- SHIKU IS NOT ALLOWED TO DO THIS ), we have this in play As stated previously, these News might play out in the corrective wave 2..If demand zone holds, please note we shall have an extended wave 3 and the next temporary halt might be around 22 disclaimer. learning is taking place. best wishes @karasinga 1.3m traded yesterday is relatively low volume? @ obiero. Depending on how you/I want to look at it, yes. Let me know if you need a chart example. @karasinga I will need a COOP chart example, spread out over 6 months or 1 year @Obiero accept and get back in, wacha maneno mingi!!! Hehe.. Okay. Lakini sirudi saa hii, even though I note that the price is tempting. it's basically gone below the dividend as well as pre bonus quote @ obiero, what do you mean by "gone below the dividend" Tell it like you are telling a 2 year old or like this Declared dividend was KES 0.80.. The share price cum dividend peaked at KES 17.6. Factoring the price ex dividend and ex bonus today reading KES 13.5, someone who opted to receive the dividend and bonus is at now shorter than the one who opted out.. But this could change in a few days time @karasinga I hope you are learning how to trade corporate announcements.. The MMs are hammering COOP with a specific target in mind. The current price is unrealistically low. KES 14.6 is fair value
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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karasinga wrote:winston wrote:@karasinga @hisah....what is the latest from the charts on NSE 20? Asante! hello winston. I doubt if we have meet. Welcome to directional forecast. You are always welcome to post. To your question. hisah your take. For me still valid yesterday's index was at 3,583.41 points @Karasinga - Many thanks. Nope we havent met. But have been on Wazua Republic for quite awhile (since 2010). Back to NSE 20 - from your chart next few weeeks are looking abit grim...waiting for @hisah thoughts.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:Fundamental gurus. Let me know if I a getting this right.
Price adjustment after bonus issue= Market price ( last transaction price)/(1+bonus share%)
example COOP:
last transaction price =16.95
Bonus share %= 20% (1/5*100)
COOP price adjustment after bonus issue= 16.95/(1+0.2)
=16.95/1.2
=14.125
~14.13
Meaning fundamentally price below 14.13 is a discount
in learning mode. best wishes That's true.. A simpler way to approach the calculation is to note that if a holding was worth KES 16,950 prior to the bonus.. The new holding should still be at the same level That's the magma of the matter. Thus, if prior bonus announcement, you could not touch co-op shares because they were trading at a premium, at price mp1 I will still not touch the monkey at price mp2>mp1 at bonus closer date. Even further, I will not touch the stock when it goes ex bonus at a price higher than mp1/(1+0.2) since bonus issue creates no additional value. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:Fundamental gurus. Let me know if I a getting this right.
Price adjustment after bonus issue= Market price ( last transaction price)/(1+bonus share%)
example COOP:
last transaction price =16.95
Bonus share %= 20% (1/5*100)
COOP price adjustment after bonus issue= 16.95/(1+0.2)
=16.95/1.2
=14.125
~14.13
Meaning fundamentally price below 14.13 is a discount
in learning mode. best wishes That's true.. A simpler way to approach the calculation is to note that if a holding was worth KES 16,950 prior to the bonus.. The new holding should still be at the same level @karasinga. No the price below 14.13 would not be a discount off the bat. There are various valuation metrics and historical price or calculated price wouldnt be considered intrinsic value. I suggest you may want to get your hands on a book by Ben Graham & Dodd. Intelligent Investor and Security analysis then come up with your own hybrid valuation method
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,220 Location: nairobi
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Horton wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:Fundamental gurus. Let me know if I a getting this right.
Price adjustment after bonus issue= Market price ( last transaction price)/(1+bonus share%)
example COOP:
last transaction price =16.95
Bonus share %= 20% (1/5*100)
COOP price adjustment after bonus issue= 16.95/(1+0.2)
=16.95/1.2
=14.125
~14.13
Meaning fundamentally price below 14.13 is a discount
in learning mode. best wishes That's true.. A simpler way to approach the calculation is to note that if a holding was worth KES 16,950 prior to the bonus.. The new holding should still be at the same level @karasinga. No the price below 14.13 would not be a discount off the bat. There are various valuation metrics and historical price or calculated price wouldnt be considered intrinsic value. I suggest you may want to get your hands on a book by Ben Graham & Dodd. Intelligent Investor and Security analysis then come up with your own hybrid valuation method The Intelligent Investor is a must read.. I have it on my desktop
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:Horton wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:Fundamental gurus. Let me know if I a getting this right.
Price adjustment after bonus issue= Market price ( last transaction price)/(1+bonus share%)
example COOP:
last transaction price =16.95
Bonus share %= 20% (1/5*100)
COOP price adjustment after bonus issue= 16.95/(1+0.2)
=16.95/1.2
=14.125
~14.13
Meaning fundamentally price below 14.13 is a discount
in learning mode. best wishes That's true.. A simpler way to approach the calculation is to note that if a holding was worth KES 16,950 prior to the bonus.. The new holding should still be at the same level @karasinga. No the price below 14.13 would not be a discount off the bat. There are various valuation metrics and historical price or calculated price wouldnt be considered intrinsic value. I suggest you may want to get your hands on a book by Ben Graham & Dodd. Intelligent Investor and Security analysis then come up with your own hybrid valuation method The Intelligent Investor is a must read.. I have it on my desktop  Yet, someone buys crap known as KQ which doesn't meet any of the criteria set out by G&D. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,220 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Horton wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:Fundamental gurus. Let me know if I a getting this right.
Price adjustment after bonus issue= Market price ( last transaction price)/(1+bonus share%)
example COOP:
last transaction price =16.95
Bonus share %= 20% (1/5*100)
COOP price adjustment after bonus issue= 16.95/(1+0.2)
=16.95/1.2
=14.125
~14.13
Meaning fundamentally price below 14.13 is a discount
in learning mode. best wishes That's true.. A simpler way to approach the calculation is to note that if a holding was worth KES 16,950 prior to the bonus.. The new holding should still be at the same level @karasinga. No the price below 14.13 would not be a discount off the bat. There are various valuation metrics and historical price or calculated price wouldnt be considered intrinsic value. I suggest you may want to get your hands on a book by Ben Graham & Dodd. Intelligent Investor and Security analysis then come up with your own hybrid valuation method The Intelligent Investor is a must read.. I have it on my desktop Yet, someone buys crap known as KQ which doesn't meet any of the criteria set out by G&D. Hehe. May God heal your nasty tongue
KQ ABP 4.26
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