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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,008 Location: nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I thought we were through with politics/elections on the economy in Q1? Yea ... Q2 should be our gauge Government is not tendering at the moment and worse still payments for jobs done are being held up. The economy is not moving and Q2 shall be worse than Q1..
KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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obiero wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:obiero wrote:you can tell that NSE is overvalued when the green bank, trading at multiyear highs, is set to post an almost reduced Q1 '13 PBT with high possibility of lower profits in FY2013 compared to FY2012 *thankmelater*  Green Bank is not NSE. NSE is the 61 listed companies and NSE still has alot of headroom A good number of big companies are having a rough time. Think EABL, TOTAL, KK, KQ, NBK, CMC, EABL, WTK.. Kuna kitu watu hawaoni.. The financial performance of these companies and others in FY13 is likely to be better than FY12. The economy will do well this year and so should our companies. .... Q1 2013 was generally all politics but Q2, Q3, Q4 and on will generally be all economic growth. If you think otherwise, speak
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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obiero wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I thought we were through with politics/elections on the economy in Q1? Yea ... Q2 should be our gauge Government is not tendering at the moment and worse still payments for jobs done are being held up. The economy is not moving and Q2 shall be worse than Q1.. ha ha ha, you are kidding, right? you know the current government has only one way to move the economy, up, right? ... I read the Jubilee manifesto and i see the Vision 2030 coming earlier
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,008 Location: nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:obiero wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:obiero wrote:you can tell that NSE is overvalued when the green bank, trading at multiyear highs, is set to post an almost reduced Q1 '13 PBT with high possibility of lower profits in FY2013 compared to FY2012 *thankmelater* Green Bank is not NSE. NSE is the 61 listed companies and NSE still has alot of headroom A good number of big companies are having a rough time. Think EABL, TOTAL, KK, KQ, NBK, CMC, EABL, WTK.. Kuna kitu watu hawaoni.. The financial performance of these companies and others in FY13 is likely to be better than FY12. The economy will do well this year and so should our companies. .... Q1 2013 was generally all politics but Q2, Q3, Q4 and on will generally be all economic growth. If you think otherwise, speak haha. ''if you think otherwise, speak''.. umeongea kama baba yao! dont stone me chief!!! Q2 will have nothing to write home about, maybe Q3 & Q4 but by then, the damage will already have been done.. tutakuwa hapa tu wazua majaliwa, lets exchange notes after the fact
KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:obiero, you had yet another drink at the Exchange bar?;-)
haha. indeed. i have a lot of information at the moment and i am tryin hard to separate fact from fiction but all indications are that 2013 is going to be a poor year for banks. current stock values across most financial firms will soon be revealed to be unjustified. kuna watu wataachwa uchi hapa when the tide goes out Banks like HFCK will do extraordinarily well in 2013! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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guru267 wrote:obiero wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:obiero, you had yet another drink at the Exchange bar?;-)
haha. indeed. i have a lot of information at the moment and i am tryin hard to separate fact from fiction but all indications are that 2013 is going to be a poor year for banks. current stock values across most financial firms will soon be revealed to be unjustified. kuna watu wataachwa uchi hapa when the tide goes out Banks like HFCK will do extraordinarily well in 2013! ditto @guru .... I&M Bank (City Trust) will also do extraordinarily well in 2013!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,008 Location: nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:guru267 wrote:obiero wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:obiero, you had yet another drink at the Exchange bar?;-)
haha. indeed. i have a lot of information at the moment and i am tryin hard to separate fact from fiction but all indications are that 2013 is going to be a poor year for banks. current stock values across most financial firms will soon be revealed to be unjustified. kuna watu wataachwa uchi hapa when the tide goes out Banks like HFCK will do extraordinarily well in 2013! ditto @guru .... I&M Bank (City Trust) will also do extraordinarily well in 2013! even co-op bank will have double digit percentage growth. nimesema 'kuna watu', sio 'kila mtu' atakuwa uchi.. now, it all depends on preferred stock entry price. never overpay, as it is widely known it is wise to buy a great company at a FAIR value
KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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obiero wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:guru267 wrote:obiero wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:obiero, you had yet another drink at the Exchange bar?;-)
haha. indeed. i have a lot of information at the moment and i am tryin hard to separate fact from fiction but all indications are that 2013 is going to be a poor year for banks. current stock values across most financial firms will soon be revealed to be unjustified. kuna watu wataachwa uchi hapa when the tide goes out Banks like HFCK will do extraordinarily well in 2013! ditto @guru .... I&M Bank (City Trust) will also do extraordinarily well in 2013! even co-op bank will have double digit percentage growth. nimesema 'kuna watu', sio 'kila mtu' atakuwa uchi.. now, it all depends on preferred stock entry price. never overpay, as it is widely known it is wise to buy a great company at a FAIR value Now we are speaking on the same page chief obiero (you see, i cant stone you, he he). ... Coop & and probably CFC are the only darlings remaining among the Tier 1 Banks category. Tier 2 Banks category has a number of darlings
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Was at Ban Bros for a school bus on Friday. We were just many among the orders. Work has picked up. Keep waiting for GoK.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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You know a bull run has reached fever pitch when stocks like Paka...Olympia...NBK are being hyped up as the next big things...who remembers the BUY BUY BUY screams of the last bull run...paka was at 3bob if I recall correctly...we all know what happened...If you are still interested in buying stocks at this crazy levels...buy insurance stocks...they put close to 30% of their premiums in stocks (not all of them)...they will profit from this madness...also take a look at stocks trading on single digit PE's...if they have a good track record then buy...otherwise your money is safe somewhere else...this could be the right to look at real estate when everybody is into the NSE...there is no need to overpay....smart investors bought in Q1 2012 when stocks where trading at throw away prices...smart investors held into their stocks (never sold cos of elections)...if you are coming in now...you could be late to the party unless you are a long term investor...look maan the NSE is 20% away from its all time high without a single drop of oil being extracted out of Turkana...the economy is growing at 4%...GoK is selling assets to shore up its finances...the same GoK will raise KES25Bn this month through bonds...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,008 Location: nairobi
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the deal wrote:You know a bull run has reached fever pitch when stocks like Paka...Olympia...NBK are being hyped up as the next big things...who remembers the BUY BUY BUY screams of the last bull run...paka was at 3bob if I recall correctly...we all know what happened...If you are still interested in buying stocks at this crazy levels...buy insurance stocks...they put close to 30% of their premiums in stocks (not all of them)...they will profit from this madness...also take a look at stocks trading on single digit PE's...if they have a good track record then buy...otherwise your money is safe somewhere else...this could be the right to look at real estate when everybody is into the NSE...there is no need to overpay....smart investors bought in Q1 2012 when stocks where trading at throw away prices...smart investors held into their stocks (never sold cos of elections)...if you are coming in now...you could be late to the party unless you are a long term investor...look maan the NSE is 20% away from its all time high without a single drop of oil being extracted out of Turkana...the economy is growing at 4%...GoK is selling assets to shore up its finances...the same GoK will raise KES25Bn this month through bonds... the ever sensible
KQ ABP 4.48; MTN ABP 5.20
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Bullish Sentiments
1. Economic growth in FY13 will be higher than FY12
2. Companies earnings in FY13 will be higher than FY12
3. KRA collections in FY13 will be higher than FY12 (Achieving targets is another thing)
4. GOK debt in FY13 will be higher than FY12 (I however don’t expect GOK to crowd out private investment)
5. GOK Capital and recurrent expenditures in FY13 will be higher than FY12
6. Private investment in FY13 will be higher than FY12
7. Inflation will be contained at the set targets
8. ….. etc
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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A low P/E ratio is a good entry and a high P/E ratio is a good exit point. What is a low/high P/E ratio in other markets? .... Foreigners are playing our market with valuation targets that wazuans are calling "madness"
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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Welcome back green to the nse indeed the colour of life. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/25/2010 Posts: 344
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paka demand at 3/= (daily limit) but no supply
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/18/2006 Posts: 131
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mwekez@ji wrote:A low P/E ratio is a good entry and a high P/E ratio is a good exit point. What is a low/high P/E ratio in other markets? .... Foreigners are playing our market with valuation targets that wazuans are calling "madness" It seems the desperate sellers from last week are done selling with all the green displayed in today's trading.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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Markets are about buying and selling so its not friendly to say anytime you decide to sell you are desperate. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jwEwlZnSFY$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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The Bourse opened the week with a total of 15M shares valued at Kes.218M, down from Kes.559M on a volume of 22M shares posted last Friday. The NSE 20 Share Index shed 4.83 points to stand at 4980.84. All Share Index (NASI) eased 0.24 points to stand at 120.41. Another holiday... GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 972 Location: Home
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NAIROBI, April 10 (Reuters) - The weighted average yield on Kenya's 364-day Treasury bills fell to 12.504 percent at auction on Wednesday from 12.618 percent previously, the central bank said. During the same sale, the average yield on 182-day Treasury bills also fell to 10.827 percent from 10.892 percent last week. http://www.xe.com/news/2013/04/10/3298717.htm?c=1&t=
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