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Mumias results
mwanahisa
#281 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 9:11:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I am with g267 on this one. I would sell and put the funds into Financials (Co-op, KCB, Equity Bank, HFCK - take your pick). You will recoup the dividends and possible lost capital gains from any rise in Mumias.
PKoli
#282 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 12:08:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
guru267 wrote:
shauriyako wrote:
@all - Mumias stands out as the odd one out in my portfolio. I need to finish the realignment on my portfolio and the question that comes to mind is - Is there any chance that we will see a rally on this counter towards book closure? If I get out now I will lock in about 10% gain but with 50K units the potential dividends look good too. Your valued advise is sought on this, People.


@shauriyako this stock MIGHT rally towards books closure but even if it did it wouldnt make it over 13.8 bob.... then there's also the possibility investors will realise that they will lose more in capital depreciation than the dividends they'll make and they bail...


for example i only hold stocks for dividend if i'm sure theý'll go up after books closure...

trust me the investors who bought kenya re and safcom before books closure to wait for dividends know exactly what i'm talking about....


With the dividends of 40 cents, I do not expect any rally towards books closure. The stock was oversold after results were announced and the recovery could be based on price correction. However, the external factors like the rallying of world sugar prices, the critical drought in the Amazon region and hence reduced sugar production, could see some price upsurge. I am therefore taking a position at a price of KES 12 per share. I am targeting 40,000 units with expected returns of 22%. That should give a better X-mas than the gross dividends of KES 16,000 if I waited for dividends.
mwanahisa
#283 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 4:32:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Good Heavens - someone(s) sold 2,188,700 shares at 10.90 bringing the average price down hard - to 11.30.

This is not a share for the faint hearted.Sad
PKoli
#284 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 4:33:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
What is eating into MSC? Traded huge volumes today and price is still declining!
guru267
#285 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 4:35:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
Good Heavens - someone(s) sold 2,188,700 shares at 10.90 bringing the average price down hard - to 11.30.

This is not a share for the faint hearted.Sad


there's nothing good in this share as @qw and the rest think....

i thank the lord for the day i bailed on this counter....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#286 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 4:36:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
PKoli wrote:
What is eating into MSC? Traded huge volumes today and price is still declining!


The share is being dumped.. no one wants to be around this stock when the COMESA drama happens in 2012
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
PKoli
#287 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 4:47:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
guru267 wrote:
PKoli wrote:
What is eating into MSC? Traded huge volumes today and price is still declining!


The share is being dumped.. no one wants to be around this stock when the COMESA drama happens in 2012


Is it really Comesa alone? with value additions, I expected at least a 10% increase
underweight
#288 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 5:23:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/25/2009
Posts: 184
Location: For now El-Fashier - Darfur
Suprisingly my purchase order went through at 11.00. How I wish I had place more volumes. Hope it goes much down tomor. At those prices the dividend gets more sweet by the day! Or wat your take.
"A bad decision made now is beta that a good one made later!!"
PKoli
#289 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 5:30:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
underweight wrote:
Suprisingly my purchase order went through at 11.00. How I wish I had place more volumes. Hope it goes much down tomor. At those prices the dividend gets more sweet by the day! Or wat your take.


Lucky you, yesterday I took 20,000 pieces at 11.90
Wa_ithaka
#290 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 5:43:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Think this is a one-off trade.
Although the sugar industry is in an almight mess (reminds me of the coffee industry 10yrs ago), Mumias is a stand out player in the industry
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
PKoli
#291 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 5:47:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
Wa_ithaka wrote:
Think this is a one-off trade.
Although the sugar industry is in an almight mess (reminds me of the coffee industry 10yrs ago), Mumias is a stand out player in the industry


I echo your sentiments. Me thinks MSC will be there post comesa. what is the status of the Tana project?
mkonomtupu
#292 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 6:05:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Me thinks MSC will be there post comesa depending on the international price for sugar. If the comesa producers can get a better price in europe why sell in Kenya. The only problem as we head to 2012 sugar is always a good commodity to raise campaign funds by dumping it on the local market. what is happening to Kenya sugar board does not inspire confidence. On the ethanol MSC has to compete with Spectre. Looking at it glad i dumped the stock
PKoli
#293 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 6:12:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
mkonomtupu wrote:
Me thinks MSC will be there post comesa depending on the international price for sugar. If the comesa producers can get a better price in europe why sell in Kenya. The only problem as we head to 2012 sugar is always a good commodity to raise campaign funds by dumping it on the local market. what is happening to Kenya sugar board does not inspire confidence. On the ethanol MSC has to compete with Spectre. Looking at it glad i dumped the stock


The World market now has low sugar production that is why the prices have been rising on the international market. Me thinks the price will be sustained for a year or so due to La Nina weather phenomenon affecting the largest sugar producing zones.
Njung'e
#294 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 6:41:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
My thinking is that people who are dumping MSC believe that the share will stagnate while others take off....Why wait?.And i hold coz i do not see MSC recovering until the second half (Do not trust me coz i am somewhere between amber and green depending on sales figures outcome by which time i'll say,f*Ck the weather)....Secondly,i seriously believe that COMESA countries do not present a threat to MSC unless someone can show me a net exporting country within the block (Kindly do not believe this nonsense)....and this one goes to Mkonotupu;Does Spectre or Agro-Chemical produce their own molasses??.If the answer is NO (Which it is),then you know MSC will have no competitor in the field of ethanol and power for sometimes since the two said companies rely on MSC's molasses.

Expect tanking out at 9......my two Zim cents.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
the deal
#295 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 6:56:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
What about those guys from parliament...i don't know who theyre but they think MSC should be delisted...LOL..what about the farmers who think MSC is short changing them when it comes to cane prices..
Renegade
#296 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 7:15:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/18/2009
Posts: 118
Njung'e wrote:
My thinking is that people who are dumping MSC believe that the share will stagnate while others take off....Why wait?.And i hold coz i do not see MSC recovering until the second half (Do not trust me coz i am somewhere between amber and green depending on sales figures outcome by which time i'll say,f*Ck the weather)....Secondly,i seriously believe that COMESA countries do not present a threat to MSC unless someone can show me a net exporting country within the block (Kindly do not believe this nonsense)....and this one goes to Mkonotupu;Does Spectre or Agro-Chemical produce their own molasses??.If the answer is NO (Which it is),then you know MSC will have no competitor in the field of ethanol and power for sometimes since the two said companies rely on MSC's molasses.

Expect tanking out at 9....my two Zim cents.


I dumped this thing at 12.50 and bought into KCB at 18.50-19, shortly after MSC results. I was mightily disspointed and prospects did not look good.

If it gets to 10, I will happily sell KCB and get back into Sugar. I will be able to buy more than I had before.
PKoli
#297 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 7:29:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
Renegade wrote:
Njung'e wrote:
My thinking is that people who are dumping MSC believe that the share will stagnate while others take off....Why wait?.And i hold coz i do not see MSC recovering until the second half (Do not trust me coz i am somewhere between amber and green depending on sales figures outcome by which time i'll say,f*Ck the weather)....Secondly,i seriously believe that COMESA countries do not present a threat to MSC unless someone can show me a net exporting country within the block (Kindly do not believe this nonsense)....and this one goes to Mkonotupu;Does Spectre or Agro-Chemical produce their own molasses??.If the answer is NO (Which it is),then you know MSC will have no competitor in the field of ethanol and power for sometimes since the two said companies rely on MSC's molasses.

Expect tanking out at 9....my two Zim cents.


I dumped this thing at 12.50 and bought into KCB at 18.50-19, shortly after MSC results. I was mightily disspointed and prospects did not look good.

If it gets to 10, I will happily sell KCB and get back into Sugar. I will be able to buy more than I had before.


I had also sold my MSC at 13 and took the money to KCB. After the results I saw light at the end of the tunnel and decided to sell my BOC in favour of MSC
VituVingiSana
#298 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 10:12:44 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,230
Location: Nairobi
Politicians are going to kill the sugar industry... http://www.nation.co.ke/...38/-/npgnq8/-/index.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Njung'e
#299 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 10:22:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@VVS,
The proposals therein will greatly benefit the miller.Reason?.Cane will be paid for quality and not quantity hence the jinga farmers will have to get off their bottoms and do some real cane husbandry.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Sober
#300 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 10:28:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
@Njunge
Remember most farmers do not have the machinery to plough, plant, weed, cut and transport the cane.
The miller does it for them and deducts it fron the proceeds. This means the miller has more control of the quality and not the farmer who all he owns is the land.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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