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When is the Next NSE Bus Leaving the Stage
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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As long as tbill rates remain firmly between the inflation rate and the CBR the stock market should be fine... The medium term pressure (H2 2012) is for treasury yields to come down and the stock market to rally upwards.. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:As long as tbill rates remain firmly between the inflation rate and the CBR the stock market should be fine...
The medium term pressure (H2 2012) is for treasury yields to come down and the stock market to rally upwards..
Heavy tbills start maturing this Sept. That will spike the yields... I want to see if CBK will have the guts to cut CBR in Sept with that money being due to force the yields down. Otherwise those maturities will be rolled back into those juicy high yields starving the econ & equities. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Data from the exchange shows investors traded East African Breweries (EABL) shares worth Sh1.4 billion in July, ahead of the second most traded stock, KCB, whose stock recorded a turnover of Sh844.2 million ($10.05 million). Equity Bank was the third most heavily traded stock in the month, with a turnover of Sh763 million ($9.08 million). http://www.businessdaily.../-/6qm8buz/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:As long as tbill rates remain firmly between the inflation rate and the CBR the stock market should be fine...
The medium term pressure (H2 2012) is for treasury yields to come down and the stock market to rally upwards..
Heavy tbills start maturing this Sept. That will spike the yields... I want to see if CBK will have the guts to cut CBR in Sept with that money being due to force the yields down. Otherwise those maturities will be rolled back into those juicy high yields starving the econ & equities. Boss I personally think its time you stop with the doom and gloom and join the 20 year economic party that is coming!! Tbill rates, inflation, CBR and lending rates are all on their way down.. The stock market looks set for some glory days... Its rare for dividends to exceed inflation in any African country Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/23/2010 Posts: 868 Location: La Islas Galápagos
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Data from the exchange shows investors traded East African Breweries (EABL) shares worth Sh1.4 billion in July, ahead of the second most traded stock, KCB, whose stock recorded a turnover of Sh844.2 million ($10.05 million). Equity Bank was the third most heavily traded stock in the month, with a turnover of Sh763 million ($9.08 million). http://www.businessdaily.../-/6qm8buz/-/index.html
Is this the start of speculation for stocks closing books in mid-year? A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:As long as tbill rates remain firmly between the inflation rate and the CBR the stock market should be fine...
The medium term pressure (H2 2012) is for treasury yields to come down and the stock market to rally upwards..
Heavy tbills start maturing this Sept. That will spike the yields... I want to see if CBK will have the guts to cut CBR in Sept with that money being due to force the yields down. Otherwise those maturities will be rolled back into those juicy high yields starving the econ & equities. Boss I personally think its time you stop with the doom and gloom and join the 20 year economic party that is coming!! Tbill rates, inflation, CBR and lending rates are all on their way down.. The stock market looks set for some glory days... Its rare for dividends to exceed inflation in any African country The bear and bull war,who will come out the winner?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Eaagads is up 26% since Monday but only off 1900 shares traded... (as at 11.47 a.m) GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:As long as tbill rates remain firmly between the inflation rate and the CBR the stock market should be fine...
The medium term pressure (H2 2012) is for treasury yields to come down and the stock market to rally upwards..
Heavy tbills start maturing this Sept. That will spike the yields... I want to see if CBK will have the guts to cut CBR in Sept with that money being due to force the yields down. Otherwise those maturities will be rolled back into those juicy high yields starving the econ & equities. Boss I personally think its time you stop with the doom and gloom and join the 20 year economic party that is coming!! Tbill rates, inflation, CBR and lending rates are all on their way down.. The stock market looks set for some glory days... Its rare for dividends to exceed inflation in any African country Nitavuka sakafu to the bull side only when CBK engages in shock rate cuts signalling no more tbill hoarding. My ideal shock is anything from 400bps. And should this be at the same with US Fed USD flood together with ECB eurobond buying spree, well equities will be the biggest winner globally.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Data from the exchange shows investors traded East African Breweries (EABL) shares worth Sh1.4 billion in July, ahead of the second most traded stock, KCB, whose stock recorded a turnover of Sh844.2 million ($10.05 million). Equity Bank was the third most heavily traded stock in the month, with a turnover of Sh763 million ($9.08 million). http://www.businessdaily.../-/6qm8buz/-/index.html
@Hisah. im i right or im i right? This is a signal of profit taking. Rosy news, never a good sign. As elections approach i expect some serious offloading. these people know what they are doing. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:As long as tbill rates remain firmly between the inflation rate and the CBR the stock market should be fine...
The medium term pressure (H2 2012) is for treasury yields to come down and the stock market to rally upwards..
Heavy tbills start maturing this Sept. That will spike the yields... I want to see if CBK will have the guts to cut CBR in Sept with that money being due to force the yields down. Otherwise those maturities will be rolled back into those juicy high yields starving the econ & equities. Boss I personally think its time you stop with the doom and gloom and join the 20 year economic party that is coming!! Tbill rates, inflation, CBR and lending rates are all on their way down.. The stock market looks set for some glory days... Its rare for dividends to exceed inflation in any African country Nitavuka sakafu to the bull side only when CBK engages in shock rate cuts signalling no more tbill hoarding. My ideal shock is anything from 400bps. And should this be at the same with US Fed USD flood together with ECB eurobond buying spree, well equities will be the biggest winner globally. Today, Uganda c.bank has cut its rate again. Our c. bank will also do it during next MPC. Stay ahead of the curve mate.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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T-Bills are currently offering inflation beating returns thus expect fund managers/foreigners to pack their money there until the t-bills fall below the inflation rate due to over subscriptions, at that point if it comes the NSe would top at 4000-4500 since foreigners would start dumping Kenyan bonds and the low interest rates would pop up imports sending the Kes to new all time lows...inflation would then start picking up forcing CBK to hike CBR...this scenario is likely to occur in Q1/Q2 2013.
Another scenario is for inflation to bottom in the next 1-2 month due to an upward spiral in the crude price due to easing in advanced markets, in that case the pump price would shoot up and inflation would follow...foreigners/fund managers would dump stocks and buy bonds thus forcing stocks to pick at 4000-4500...this scenario is likely to occur in 4Q 2012... Q1/Q2 2013.
Conclusions: A correction is coming...play it safe! The elections will steepen this correction!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Eaagads is up 26% since Monday but only off 1900 shares traded...
(as at 11.47 a.m)
Another 10 percent leo. But again, only 400 shares traded GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:Mpesa bank is showing strength than the index... Bulls taking over!  Loads of volume yet again on Mpesa bank. Getting ready to break above 4/- handle likely by Friday next week. Interesting to see this counter is showing more strength than the index... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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NSE set to sign pact with Somalia stock exchange http://www.businessdaily.../-/vc647bz/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Kuishi kwingi. Kuona mengi The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/23/2010 Posts: 868 Location: La Islas Galápagos
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I wonder what 'stocks' they will be trading  A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Rich words on 08.08.2012 regarding safaricom (the bellwether stock)
Safaricom closed unchanged at 3.85 and traded 2.406m shares worth 9.259m. There was Buy Side Interest for 300% more Shares than were traded during the Session. Safaricom is +30.508% in 2012 and sits 2.531% below its 2012 and 12 Month Closing High of 3.95 from July 26th and August 3rd. 4.00 is Proving a Near Term Hurdle but I believe it will be hurdled before long.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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High turnover for Equity Bank in yesterday's as well as today's session for an average of 7.1 million shares over 2 sessions. Safaricom moved shares worth Kshs. 143.8 million today. The 2 counters accounted for 72 percent of turnover for Thursday's session GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Lots of profit takin seen in Scom particularly over the last 2weeks. Also note that foreigners are on the sell side & they've been selling at 3 95!!! Watch out for a temporary pull back in this counter!! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Lots of profit takin seen in Scom particularly over the last 2weeks. Also note that foreigners are on the sell side & they've been selling at 3 95!!! Watch out for a temporary pull back in this counter!! @SufficientlyP
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