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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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We are at the summit again... Asian crisis, Dotcom bubble, GFC and now the scottish referendum...  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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SPX, DOW, RUS2OOO, NASDAQ & FTSE triggering interesting conditions. Sizable shakeout likely soon; very likely Q4 2014 (Oct-Nov). Avoid shorting $. Projections for $CHF = 1.10 and USDJPY = 110. GBP rally unsustainable...! Caution. Brace for impact... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Scots have voted NO. Expect a 2% FTSE rally today Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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GBP bulls caution... Shorting FTSE and Dow today. Commodities bulls caution. Commodo fx longs not encouraged. Gold sitting at critical support level. Breakdown of 1180 aims 1050-80. Been bearish gold against 1350-1400 resistance. Hard to be bullish gold or commodos with USD on steriods. Oil, WTI if 90 breaks down 80 is next target. Forget the Ukraine, ISIS nonsense. Bearish oil. I've been trading natgas shorts instead. Iron ore, all time lows. I've been trading copper shorts instead. Very bearish. Currently watching gold's bulls fighting to hold the 1180-1200 zone and SNB defending their EURCHF 1.20 floor. Interesting times ahead...  If you can't stand the volatility sit on your hands $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Another triangle in gold implies more weakness ahead.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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A/U, G/U , E/U look ready for a strong rise to day. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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GBPJPY finally abt to break out after weeks of consolidation, NZD on the verge of FX intervention by RBNZ, Rumours of SNB starting to interevene, USD still well bid going into ECB and NFP. Should be an interesting end to the week. Safe to say volatility is back You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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alutacontinua wrote:GBPJPY finally abt to break out after weeks of consolidation, NZD on the verge of FX intervention by RBNZ, Rumours of SNB starting to interevene, USD still well bid going into ECB and NFP. Should be an interesting end to the week. Safe to say volatility is back On GJ looks like a false breakout downward. A turn upward likely by today. Will look for opportunity to go long. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mnandii wrote:A/U, G/U , E/U look ready for a strong rise to day. I hope you are not planning to hold on for too long on the GBP longs. This GBP things be cautious. Likely scope for 1.6050 to be rested and broken down towards 1.58! The referendum outcome is clouding judgement. GBP futures in Aug shows a sizable sellside bet.
Aussie and Kiwi are caught up in the commodities sellside crossfire. Staying long is dangerous biz.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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mnandii wrote:alutacontinua wrote:GBPJPY finally abt to break out after weeks of consolidation, NZD on the verge of FX intervention by RBNZ, Rumours of SNB starting to interevene, USD still well bid going into ECB and NFP. Should be an interesting end to the week. Safe to say volatility is back On GJ looks like a false breakout downward. A turn upward likely by today. Will look for opportunity to go long. @mnandii still gonna hold short in the interim and wait for 108.20 to give on USDJPY on the back of equities sliding. In other news, YM has been an absolute pleasure to trade intraday this week as dip buyers and algos have had it given to them. Flight to bonds yesterday was also a telling sign as safe haven flows are starting to sturr things up. Tomorrows NFP should be very interesting to say the least You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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alutacontinua wrote:mnandii wrote:alutacontinua wrote:GBPJPY finally abt to break out after weeks of consolidation, NZD on the verge of FX intervention by RBNZ, Rumours of SNB starting to interevene, USD still well bid going into ECB and NFP. Should be an interesting end to the week. Safe to say volatility is back On GJ looks like a false breakout downward. A turn upward likely by today. Will look for opportunity to go long. @mnandii still gonna hold short in the interim and wait for 108.20 to give on USDJPY on the back of equities sliding. In other news, YM has been an absolute pleasure to trade intraday this week as dip buyers and algos have had it given to them. Flight to bonds yesterday was also a telling sign as safe haven flows are starting to sturr things up. Tomorrows NFP should be very interesting to say the least You are right. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 A nice shorting opportunity coming up in $JPY. About 800 pips  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:A nice shorting opportunity coming up in $JPY. About 800 pips All the rules and guidelines of wave formation have been adhered to. Including channelling and throw-over. i.e you can see that at wave (5) on upper right corner, the channel is slightly penetrated to upside.  An Elliott Wave trader looking for long term opportunity would wait for price to rise to either 50% or 61.8% level then short with a SL at 110.09. Short term, price should drop to slightly below 108 in wave B. Then rise to about 109.29 or 109.64. Also nice opportunities. The B wave should give about 80 pips and the C wave about 130 pips. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:A/U, G/U , E/U look ready for a strong rise to day. I hope you are not planning to hold on for too long on the GBP longs. This GBP things be cautious. Likely scope for 1.6050 to be rested and broken down towards 1.58! The referendum outcome is clouding judgement. GBP futures in Aug shows a sizable sellside bet.
Aussie and Kiwi are caught up in the commodities sellside crossfire. Staying long is dangerous biz. Nice trades today post NFP. Though a bit uncomfy on my Dow short. If Dow spikes above 17050 I'll be forced to bail the short. FTSE short though is working fine. Short Dow and FTSE have been running since Sept 23rd.
GBP$ as expected retests and breaks below 1.6050 and crashes past 1.60 handle. Scope still points to bearish pressure targets 1.58. All the referendum hopium has been erased. There is a pending housing issue in GBP and if it boils over next year GBP will slide badly...
Gold cracks below 1200 handle. Expected as bearish commodo theme continues in 2014 as USD gets muscular. WTI is still dancing with support at $90 handle. Break below target $80 and lower! Being long commodo currencies is suicidal.
From the look and feel of the anti-dollar theme since GFC and 2011 S&P US credit downgraded, USD strength is just starting?!? The USD bears have had a ball for 6yrs and winding up those extreme sided trades will not be funny as the trend shifts.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:A/U, G/U , E/U look ready for a strong rise to day. I hope you are not planning to hold on for too long on the GBP longs. This GBP things be cautious. Likely scope for 1.6050 to be rested and broken down towards 1.58! The referendum outcome is clouding judgement. GBP futures in Aug shows a sizable sellside bet.
Aussie and Kiwi are caught up in the commodities sellside crossfire. Staying long is dangerous biz. Nice call @Hisah on G$. Still an E$ bear. I agree with you on the Aussie and Kiwi weakness going forward vs USD should commodos continue to shed weight. Happy to see G$ fall below1.6 Been a long wait from the 1.6523 highs post indyref. #BetterTogether Remember that? I was on the YES camp! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:A/U, G/U , E/U look ready for a strong rise to day. I hope you are not planning to hold on for too long on the GBP longs. This GBP things be cautious. Likely scope for 1.6050 to be rested and broken down towards 1.58! The referendum outcome is clouding judgement. GBP futures in Aug shows a sizable sellside bet.
Aussie and Kiwi are caught up in the commodities sellside crossfire. Staying long is dangerous biz. Nice call @Hisah on G$. Still an E$ bear. I agree with you on the Aussie and Kiwi weakness going forward vs USD should commodos continue to shed weight. Happy to see G$ fall below1.6 Been a long wait from the 1.6523 highs post indyref. #BetterTogether Remember that? I was on the YES camp! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Sorry guys on $JPY. I was one step ahead. One more high required before the shorting opportunity. Will post updated chart. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Market manipulation continues. But until the day the big boys are jailed, this small fish jailing is just a joke. http://www.bloomberg.com...ty-market-spoofing-.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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[quote=hisah]Market manipulation continues. But until the day the big boys are jailed, this small fish jailing is just a joke. http://www.bloomberg.com...y-market-spoofing-.html[/quote] Some big boys pocket upto $300 million/year so yeah,catching a guy who makes $1.6 million is a big joke.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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KES, Kwacha and Naira now tradable on JSE futures. Will definitely be playing this derivatives market JSE derivatives trading fee schedule - http://ow.ly/Ck1En
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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