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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Lemme make things easy for the unconvinced. What Socionomics implies is that FINANCE and ECONOMICS are two completely separate fields. The tools you use in Finance are NOT the same ones you use in Economics. Economics is governed by Demand and Supply leading to Equilibrium price. In Economics higher prices lead to lower demand and lower prices lead to higher demand. This is a fundamental tenet of economics. Finance is governed by social mood. In finance higher prices lead to higher demand and lower prices lead to lower demand. This is the complete opposite of what is found in Economics. e.g when the price of a stock rises more people buy in expectation of higher prices unlike in economics where e.g if the price of bread rises then fewer people would demand it. So do not use the tools in economics to try to forecast financial markets. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:Lemme make things easy for the unconvinced. What Socionomics implies is that FINANCE and ECONOMICS are two completely separate fields. The tools you use in Finance are NOT the same ones you use in Economics. Economics is governed by Demand and Supply leading to Equilibrium price. In Economics higher prices lead to lower demand and lower prices lead to higher demand. This is a fundamental tenet of economics.
Finance is governed by social mood. In finance higher prices lead to higher demand and lower prices lead to lower demand. This is the complete opposite of what is found in Economics. e.g when the price of a stock rises more people buy in expectation of higher prices unlike in economics where e.g if the price of bread rises then fewer people would demand it.
So do not use the tools in economics to try to forecast financial markets. I gotta admit I am baffled. After the interest rate cap law was passed, the price of most listed banks dropped precipitously. After my "back of the envelope" calculations, I made a call and bought (demand) more of the banks eg Equity. When the price of Equity went to 50+, I sold out - for other reasons than just coz the price had reason - and isn't this supply? [I sold Equity but I could have sold KK or KenRe since the gain of 100% was spectacular] I held onto KK and sold Equity on the basis of the "value" [I saw more value in KK at 16 over Equity at 50] at the time. I am a long-term shareholder (not a trader) and I advocate (WB as a mentor) buying good firms on the "cheap" but I am not averse to selling if the price is right or overblown to re-invest in a cheaper replacement. If I get the right price (not 40) for Unga, I will sell and reinvest the funds into something else BUT I (nor do I believe most Wazuans) will buy shares at a crazy high price relative to fundamentals eg EPS, NAV, potential growth, etc. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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mnandii wrote:Quote:
What you call Socioeconomics in essence is, the fundamental analysis. They are mutually exclusive. If a company's fundamentals flop, it doesn't really matter what TA you come up with, it could be just one marubozu, and case closed. That, and sometimes TA is not picture perfect. When applying it historically, one can force it, however real-time, you need fundies. Fib can give target points, but a break-out is in essence governed by FA
You could do well to point any data that has been forced as you claim. Please note that the data I use I did not generate. Both the price chart and the profit figures are publicly available data. What I have done is to put them in context - which is what Elliott is all about. Maybe 'force' is a harsh word. I'm also a TA adherent. What I meant is, sometimes different people can come up with different graphs on the same data.. even if the differences are slight. Either way, to be a successful trader, you need both. You also need to be up to date on news. A TA guy looking down on a FA guy and vise versa is funny. Be two in one
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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mnandii wrote:Lemme make things easy for the unconvinced. What Socionomics implies is that FINANCE and ECONOMICS are two completely separate fields. The tools you use in Finance are NOT the same ones you use in Economics. Economics is governed by Demand and Supply leading to Equilibrium price. In Economics higher prices lead to lower demand and lower prices lead to higher demand. This is a fundamental tenet of economics.
Finance is governed by social mood. In finance higher prices lead to higher demand and lower prices lead to lower demand. This is the complete opposite of what is found in Economics. e.g when the price of a stock rises more people buy in expectation of higher prices unlike in economics where e.g if the price of bread rises then fewer people would demand it.
So do not use the tools in economics to try to forecast financial markets. This is interesting. Simply put and easy to grasp... but very very interesting. Yes, I can relate to what you've written. So, how do you marry the two?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Hehe  Safcom is falling even after the stellar results! Fundies, how do you explain that? I stated earlier on that Safcom should fall in circle wave ((iv)) which is what it is doing presently. The bottom should be in place at the range 27 - 24.75 . To respect Elliott's rule of fourth waves ( Wave four should not overlap wave one) I don't expect the current fall to reach 21.70, the wave ((i)) top. Once wave ((iv)) completes, expect a move back up above 33.50. You can as well BUY with your SL at 21.70 and target a move to above 33.50. Since wave 5 is extending Safcom will likely move significantly higher that the last high at 33.50, to likely above 40s. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,537 Location: nairobi
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mnandii wrote:Hehe Safcom is falling even after the stellar results! Fundies, how do you explain that? I stated earlier on that Safcom should fall in circle wave ((iv)) which is what it is doing presently. The bottom should be in place at the range 27 - 24.75 . To respect Elliott's rule of fourth waves ( Wave four should not overlap wave one) I don't expect the current fall to reach 21.70, the wave ((i)) top. Once wave ((iv)) completes, expect a move back up above 33.50. You can as well BUY with your SL at 21.70 and target a move to above 33.50. Since wave 5 is extending Safcom will likely move significantly higher that the last high at 33.50, to likely above 40s. There is massive uncertainty in the Kenyan Telco space at the moment. Safaricom dominance while assured for this brief moment, is under heavy attack
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:Hehe Safcom is falling even after the stellar results! Fundies, how do you explain that?I stated earlier on that Safcom should fall in circle wave ((iv)) which is what it is doing presently. The bottom should be in place at the range 27 - 24.75 . To respect Elliott's rule of fourth waves ( Wave four should not overlap wave one) I don't expect the current fall to reach 21.70, the wave ((i)) top. Once wave ((iv)) completes, expect a move back up above 33.50. You can as well BUY with your SL at 21.70 and target a move to above 33.50. Since wave 5 is extending Safcom will likely move significantly higher that the last high at 33.50, to likely above 40s. Safcom, IMHO, was overpriced at 33/- based on the expected EBIT (85-89bn). Of course, circumstances may change. I do believe Safaricom is a formidable firm but I found 33 pricey. I would buy at 22. Of course, if Charts are the "way" then why share with us ;-) ... You can trade millions. Sterling will offer margin accounts and that could quickly vault you above folks like Kimani (Kakuzi), Adam (many firms), AB Patel (many firms), Ndegwas (NIC, Unga), etc quickly [if you are not already there! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,595
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Nairobi 20 decreased 20 points or 0.55% to 3582 on Monday May 14 from 3602 in the previous trading session.
Looks like 3450 will be sliced through...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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mnandii wrote:Lemme make things easy for the unconvinced. What Socionomics implies is that FINANCE and ECONOMICS are two completely separate fields. The tools you use in Finance are NOT the same ones you use in Economics. Economics is governed by Demand and Supply leading to Equilibrium price. In Economics higher prices lead to lower demand and lower prices lead to higher demand. This is a fundamental tenet of economics.
Finance is governed by social mood. In finance higher prices lead to higher demand and lower prices lead to lower demand. This is the complete opposite of what is found in Economics. e.g when the price of a stock rises more people buy in expectation of higher prices unlike in economics where e.g if the price of bread rises then fewer people would demand it.
So do not use the tools in economics to try to forecast financial markets. @mnandii after babas maneno simmered and the so dull a market and a whacky work environment I feel so dull and lost out. How do I convert this negative energy to chums using socialnomics. I believe @obiero can echo this one after kq went mum on is golden card of open offer. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,701 Location: NAIROBI
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@wukan Market rout is easing. Gains are now being seeing in Safaricom and KCB today Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,595
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Ericsson wrote:@wukan
Market rout is easing.
Gains are now being seeing in Safaricom and KCB today The charts show something else-breaking the trendline. Consolidation area is around the 3000 (+/-250) level
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,701 Location: NAIROBI
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wukan wrote:Ericsson wrote:@wukan
Market rout is easing.
Gains are now being seeing in Safaricom and KCB today The charts show something else-breaking the trendline. Consolidation area is around the 3000 (+/-250) level Angalia today Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,595
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Ericsson wrote:wukan wrote:Ericsson wrote:@wukan
Market rout is easing.
Gains are now being seeing in Safaricom and KCB today The charts show something else-breaking the trendline. Consolidation area is around the 3000 (+/-250) level Angalia today Nairobi 20 decreased 28 points or 0.78% to 3533 on Wednesday May 16 from 3561 in the previous trading session.Liquidity is more important now than company fundamentals. Dollar short squeeze plus strong shilling is punishing the carry trades I expect PPT to defend the 3450 level. Traders usually follow afternoon sessions not the morning sessions.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,701 Location: NAIROBI
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Mumias sugar heading towards 50 cents per share Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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Ericsson wrote:Mumias sugar heading towards 50 cents per share This one gave me a good lesson with my pesa ya Sukuma wiki. Went in at 3.8 on a chase, went up to 4.2 on 3+t. Nose dived to 2.5 by the time I evacuated from Mumias masinga gharika. Ever since I have watched it dance drop it like it's hot. Never be anxious with a troubled firm that has no clear strategy and a firm moat out if it's mess, many example abound kq with @obiero, Mumias with @Hahamaina, HAL with @sparkly, and similarly but inversely kk with @vvs. Always learn and grow your wealth happily. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 The NSE 20 Share Index. Though the index is falling, it should find support at 3500 - 3440 or extend further to 3280s (though the 3500 - 3440 is more probable). This is a zigzag formation where waves (a) (b) are complete. The index is now tracing out an impulsive wave (c). Once the bottom of wave (c) is established expect the index to rise above the previous high of 4100Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:The NSE 20 Share Index. Though the index is falling, it should find support at 3500 - 3440 or extend further to 3280s (though the 3500 - 3440 is more probable). This is a zigzag formation where waves (a) (b) are complete. The index is now tracing out an impulsive wave (c). Once the bottom of wave (c) is established expect the index to rise above the previous high of 4100 If you want to view the image better: Right Click on it >View In New Tab Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,595
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mnandii wrote:The NSE 20 Share Index. Though the index is falling, it should find support at 3500 - 3440 or extend further to 3280s (though the 3500 - 3440 is more probable). This is a zigzag formation where waves (a) (b) are complete. The index is now tracing out an impulsive wave (c). Once the bottom of wave (c) is established expect the index to rise above the previous high of 4100  “In God we trust; but all others must bring data.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,595
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Nairobi 20 decreased 17 points or 0.49% to 3477 on Monday May 21 from 3494 in the previous trading session.
Time to catch a break?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:The NSE 20 Share Index. Though the index is falling, it should find support at 3500 - 3440 or extend further to 3280s (though the 3500 - 3440 is more probable). This is a zigzag formation where waves (a) (b) are complete. The index is now tracing out an impulsive wave (c). Once the bottom of wave (c) is established expect the index to rise above the previous high of 4100 “In God we trust; but all others must bring data.” Index is at 3445 on 22nd May, 2018. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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