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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Supreme Court unanimously upholds IEBC presidential results  #How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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From history who knows how long our market cycles lasts from bear to bull and back to bear? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:From history who knows how long our market cycles lasts from bear to bull and back to bear? Politricks change used to a good pointer, but too many factors in the mix now with foreigners & hydrocarbons. Best cycle indicator is Tbill rates, inflation & KES strength for now.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:Political barrier partially removed. ICC barrier still pending for the fearful bull.
If April 9 is gazetted a holiday it means NSE will have 2 weeks of 4 trading days each. This should elicit some fierce bidding as the trading contest ensues on the short trading period within those 2 weeks.
I will be selling to wanjikus at this point...  And if the counters keep going higher and higher after you sell? At this point many are late for the party! Think of it like buying an early ticket or a show ticket at the gate. The gate ticket is always expensive and yet you don't get the best sitting place... So I'll be selling my VIP ticket at the gate as I've already seen the show!
Buying in a euphoria (buying frenzy or bid-fest cocktail) will always get you trapped and you'll be buying the top  Then the same lot will sell in a huff when they experience no demand as the DJ stops the music. Then the discounts become attractive once again and the rally begins.
Markets are not that hard to understand if you remove the emotions.
Remember there will always be a next bus. Never rush your investment goals...
@hisah the bull that is coming is simply a re rating process as Kenya*s political risk profile falls... Stocks with P/Es of 9-12 will rally to P/Es of 12-15 and stocks at 3-6 P/E should see the largest rally to 7-9 P/E ratios.. Definitely a re-rate is coming. But most bluechips are too lofty for now. They're the ones that plot the indices' direction. A euphoria push past 5100 on NSE20 in a short period is unsustainable unless huge volume comes in. My euphoria participation will be to take profit. Only chase fair valued or cheap valued counters.
NSE20 has a gap between 4600 & 4700 as mini euphoria spiked. Gaps always get filled (a shakeout of weak hands for discount bargains). If that gap is revisited with huge volume, the next bull will be ready and with more power than the current teen bull. Hydrocarbons will be the mother booster... Solid legs.
The likely euphoria this week will create another gap into solid resistance levels (5000-5100). Gaps are not solid support legs.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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Our exit targets are coming earlier than expected. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182
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It indeed seems so. LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:The likely euphoria this week will create another gap into solid resistance levels (5000-5100). Gaps are not solid support legs. Lets see my friend how solid these resistance levels are! I tend to feel most stocks will re rate upwards 20-50% and maybe that will create a new resistance at about 5,400-5,500! Lets say UMK delivers on his promise to raise 300billionKshs Per year through government savings in efficiency, reducing wastage, slashing GOK wages etc etc If these 300billion savings are then deployed to other relevant sectors that are currently starving for debt, won't this ease up on the treasury market (bills & bonds)!?? Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:The likely euphoria this week will create another gap into solid resistance levels (5000-5100). Gaps are not solid support legs. Lets see my friend how solid these resistance levels are! I tend to feel most stocks will re rate upwards 20-50% and maybe that will create a new resistance at about 5,400-5,500! If by year end NSE20 rallies 30%, 5400 can be achieved. My only concern is many bluechip counters will overheat & they'll require to report sizable profits to sustain those expensive prices. At such levels discounts disappear and selling takes over. However, my expensive market thought can be negated if banks agree to play ball by lowering lending rates as well as cbk cuts the banks cash reserve ratio (a mwiraria move). This will bring in more powder to drive and sustain prices up.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:The likely euphoria this week will create another gap into solid resistance levels (5000-5100). Gaps are not solid support legs. Lets see my friend how solid these resistance levels are! I tend to feel most stocks will re rate upwards 20-50% and maybe that will create a new resistance at about 5,400-5,500! If by year end NSE20 rallies 30%, 5400 can be achieved. My only concern is many bluechip counters will overheat & they'll require to report sizable profits to sustain those expensive prices. At such levels discounts disappear and selling takes over. However, my expensive market thought can be negated if banks agree to play ball by lowering lending rates as well as cbk cuts the banks cash reserve ratio (a mwiraria move). This will bring in more powder to drive and sustain prices up. NSE index is up 14% ytd while NASI is up 20% ytd... Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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sparkly wrote:NSE index is up 14% ytd while NASI is up 20% ytd... For the 20 share Index i can attribute to MPesa, KCB and Equity banks. For the NASI, credit should go to CIC, AK, 2nd tier banks and Cable Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/11/2009 Posts: 1,223
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There seems to be a consesus that a bull run is a few hours away http://www.businessdaily...m/1/-/uraa3/-/index.htmlHistory will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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Market perception has changed.I'm beginning to enjoy this.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Kenya’s billionaires club sees fortunes rise in NSE windfall http://www.businessdaily...4/-/qfwupl/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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EABL 'a sell' according to SIB and ABC Capital http://www.businessdaily.../-/3f313jz/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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After this, it will rise to 400/-. Mr. Market is very funny! Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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So far at the open FTSE NSE indices are 3% plus. Let's see if the madness will surpass the 5% clocked on March 11th. NSE20 needs to clock 2.6% gains to close above 4985, which is the 2013 high. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@philanga - are you watching mpesa bank...! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/18/2006 Posts: 131
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Hehehehehe. There is a standoff in many counters between the sellers and buyers. Sellers are asking for ridiculously high prices and buyers are trying to hold their ground with significantly lower bids.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:@philanga - are you watching mpesa bank...! Couldnt believe my eyes when I saw it at a high of 6.50. Im all in & smiles @VVS reminded us there's time enough for counting,when the deal is done!!! @SufficientlyP
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