We agree about the UNKNOWN - the 8 that were announced to day were part of the UNKNOWN until today. the figure announced tomorrow is part of the UNKNOWN of today. That's clear.
Where we disagree is on the answers to the following cases
1) HOW LONG HAVE THE UNKNOWNS BEEN AROUND?
I see people saying 100+ days. I disagree because of the behavoir of the disease I illustrated (R0=3) in an environment without social distancing. We would have had massive infections by now and these infections would have strayed into the GROUP 2 testing we are doing. We are only getting 1.97% positive cases in that group.
2) HOW BIG IS THIS UNKNOWN GROUP?
This is related to the 'HOW LONG THE UNKNOWNS HAVE BEEN AROUND'. if the UNKNOWNS are a recent introduction when there were social distancing guidelines in place - it's smaller in number. If it was there since Jan - then its much larger - MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. What makes me believe it's a much smaller number than the figures being thrown around is hospitalizations. lets assume it has infected over the last 12 months - 1,000,000 people. it had a 80% mild condition rate and the 20% then had severe manifestation before people started protecting their old. Why didn't we see a spike of old people in hospitals? or people with immunocompromised systems? or diabetes? Remember the Pilot who died? he was 66 and still working. Most of the people who this disease has killed in Kenya have been over 60 years old. in the larger group - wh didn't we see (and still not seeing those people in hospitals)


your explanation is - somehow Africans are not exhibiting any symptoms and are going about living their normal lives... this is of course UNTIL they get caught by the contract tracing routine and added to GROUP 2 then we find they get symptomatic like everyone else.

The only way we would be winning this war would be if we are biologically different (Those Blacks in the US dying prove we are not). My conclusion is that the war is just beginning. We have put measures in place that are actually limiting the spread but we should not legeza Kamba because we thing 'its not affecting us as projected'.

People are really dismissing social distancing and wearing masks - because they are really simple activities. We want to flamboyant actions like spraying the streets with obscure smoky substances. Sorry - this battle is won through simple changes in behavior at an individual level as is happening in Japan or Taiwan.

On a separate note: Of course people are working on predictive models are guesstimating when the disease MAY end in different countries.



97% of the worlds cases will have been resolved by the end of May but the rest of the cases will drag on until June.


Djibuti may be one of the first east african countries to go through it and get done by May.

Iran - June


it is EXPECTED that Kenya will delay and the cases will be sorted in July



OF COURSE, THESE ARE PROJECTIONS NOT PROPHESIES.

the Source of these predictions is this Singaporean Company
https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/

Models are as good as the underlying assumptions. Not being an epidemiologist, I am not even sure some things can be modeled. Learned in my zoom journal club jana that unlike earlier reports, it now seems like this virus has mutated and some strains of the virus are deadlier than others--If true, how do you model mutations?

P/S waiting (hoping/praying) for KEMRI to tell us that we have the less virulent strain...

Fact: Fatalities in Africa REMAIN far less than was expected.
Reason: matter of conjecture

Whereas the tested numbers in Africa are still very low, fatalities would have been clearedly identified if there was a major spike in deaths.