Expect the President's popularity to suffer with the declining Social Mood as measured by the NSE 20 Share Index (i.e. as the Index continues to fall, the President's popularity falls with it).

Last time I checked CDS accounts were very few.. Kengen, KenyaRe Safaricom brought most wanjiku into stocks. Indeed many Kenyans don't know about the NSE or even if they do, they don't participate

Most likely the market will dispense with the huge supply volumes then the slow motion downturn will resume in due course.

This particular bear season doesn't appear primed for high octane market action. We've probably seen three digit point(NSE20) losses in two or three instances in the current bear period; when Imperial bank collapsed and the current interest cap aftermath. With sub 3000 just around the corner, to call for the bottom is premature.

I am reading a lot of fear in investors but panic is yet to manifest. As long as you didn't put your lunch money in the stock market you should hold up well but varying risk appetite levels dictates most will lose their shirts.

Safaricom is the only thing holding the NSE from going to 2600 level coz it's still trading cum dividend.
Once it goes ex dividend there will be nothing to stop NSE from going to 2600 levels

The fact of the NSE 20 Share index gropping for below 3830 gives me confidence that the bear market in stocks is here to stay and will likely get worse. It should be awakening call for most.



The NSE 20 Share Index started its journey in 1966 at 100. The data available to me on the index is as shown in the chart above from ft.com. The most important thing is that the data fits perfectly into Elliott Waves as they should (after all we are tracking mass human psychology). From this we can proceed to 'predict' the future!

Wave (A) ended at 2360.01 in Mar', 2009.
Wave (B) ended at 5499.64 in Mar', 2015.
The preferred Elliott count suggests that the fall from the 5499.64 level is a wave (C) which has much further to drop.

We can target the final low for the NSE 20 share index which I expect to occur probably in 2017.

Assuming that the movement from 100 to the ultimate high of 6161.46 (on Jan', 2007) is one major Impulse wave, then the waves (A), (B) and (C) are its correction (a wave two). Second waves usually retrace a Fibonacci 61.8 or 78.6% of wave one. Thus:

{6161.46 -( 0.618 X (6161.46 - 100))} = 2415.48

And

{6161.46 - ( 0.786 X (6161 - 100))} = 1397.15


Also, if wave (C) be equal to wave (A) then:

Wave (C) bottom = { 5499.64 - (6161.46-2360.01) } = 1698.19

So targets for wave (C) and thus the ultimate bottom for the NSE 20 Share Index are 2415.48, 1698.19 or 1397.15.

The alternate scenario is that wave (B) is not complete and thus a move above 5499.64 is in the cards. I give this scenario a low probability since the proposed wave (B) would appear too stretched.

Analysis of the shorter term will show in these pages soon.

#BEST.

@mlennyma I managed to exit with slightly over 40% burns. Sitting out for now until the bottom in 2017/2018 according to @mnandii Elliott Wave Analysis as I undergo recovery

hehehe sounds serious