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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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VituVingiSana
#1391 Posted : Friday, September 25, 2015 6:31:51 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
payment of the interim dividend plus HE Uhuru launch of their Komarock project are the only fuel driving this bus.. Banks have taken a hit from increased lending rates than have lowered volumes of applicants. High interest expense to match T-bill and other govt paper is another headache for Kenya financials in 2015. Its not looking good. Thank me later

Are you still waiting for the thanks from those you convinced to buy into KQ's Rights Issue? Liar Liar Liar
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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MaichBlack
#1392 Posted : Friday, September 25, 2015 6:36:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,838
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
payment of the interim dividend plus HE Uhuru launch of their Komarock project are the only fuel driving this bus.. Banks have taken a hit from increased lending rates than have lowered volumes of applicants. High interest expense to match T-bill and other govt paper is another headache for Kenya financials in 2015. Its not looking good. Thank me later

Are you still waiting for the thanks from those you convinced to buy into KQ's Rights Issue? Liar Liar Liar

He he he. At 20s levels and earlier!!! Ouch!!!

But one thing is for sure! They would love to meet him! Preferably is some dark alley somewhere!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, September 25, 2015 6:39 PM | Reason: Not specified
MaichBlack
#1393 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 10:17:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,838
I have been looking to load up on more Housing Finance shares. My target buying price of 20/= was hit last week but I did not pull the trigger.

Given the current economic situation and Interest regime, banks profitability will most likely be hit due to lower loan intake! Have these issues been fully factored into the price (including market sentiments) or a we likely to see even lower prices?? I am not a speculator but I will take a lower buying price any day coz that way I can buy more! On the other hand, most investors don't benefit from lower prices because they keep waiting for them to go lower and eventually miss the bus!

I need different opinions from wazuans - from fundies to chartists/cartoonists - I put them in the same pot as mine nikoroge kidogo and make a decision!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, October 23, 2015 10:19 AM | Reason: Not specified
MaichBlack
#1394 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 1:38:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,838
Wazuans, mpo???
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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grahamsdisciple
#1395 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 2:05:38 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 10/19/2015
Posts: 21
Location: Everywhere
MaichBlack wrote:
I have been looking to load up on more Housing Finance shares. My target buying price of 20/= was hit last week but I did not pull the trigger.

Given the current economic situation and Interest regime, banks profitability will most likely be hit due to lower loan intake! Have these issues been fully factored into the price (including market sentiments) or a we likely to see even lower prices?? I am not a speculator but I will take a lower buying price any day coz that way I can buy more! On the other hand, most investors don't benefit from lower prices because they keep waiting for them to go lower and eventually miss the bus!

I need different opinions from wazuans - from fundies to chartists/cartoonists - I put them in the same pot as mine nikoroge kidogo and make a decision!




HFCK to me is exposed to the worst kind of conditions, just IMO. Funding costs will get more expensive and housing market is facing pressures. Traditionally the lowest ROE's in the market. I'd avoid. For instance, KCB is selling at a lower PE, but has prospects for better dividend yield and their funding is never a problem due to GoK biz, branch network and agency banking.
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Aguytrying
#1396 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 3:25:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@maich. I've always been a fan of this share. I believe it will go lower, at 18.00 is when I'll start buying.
I remember you asked earlier when we weren't sure if we were in a proper bear market. 20.00 seems to be holding but I think it will cave in. By the time equity, KCB are well below 40.00 and saf well below 14 we should be there
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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whiteowl
#1397 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 10:22:58 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
MaichBlack wrote:
I have been looking to load up on more Housing Finance shares. My target buying price of 20/= was hit last week but I did not pull the trigger.

Given the current economic situation and Interest regime, banks profitability will most likely be hit due to lower loan intake! Have these issues been fully factored into the price (including market sentiments) or a we likely to see even lower prices?? I am not a speculator but I will take a lower buying price any day coz that way I can buy more! On the other hand, most investors don't benefit from lower prices because they keep waiting for them to go lower and eventually miss the bus!

I need different opinions from wazuans - from fundies to chartists/cartoonists - I put them in the same pot as mine nikoroge kidogo and make a decision!



I believe it will hit 10/= next year as govt raises the 600B for loan repayments.
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obiero
#1398 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 11:08:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
payment of the interim dividend plus HE Uhuru launch of their Komarock project are the only fuel driving this bus.. Banks have taken a hit from increased lending rates than have lowered volumes of applicants. High interest expense to match T-bill and other govt paper is another headache for Kenya financials in 2015. Its not looking good. Thank me later

Are you still waiting for the thanks from those you convinced to buy into KQ's Rights Issue? Liar Liar Liar

He he he. At 20s levels and earlier!!! Ouch!!!

But one thing is for sure! They would love to meet him! Preferably is some dark alley somewhere!!!

Ona sasa. Hadnt seen this porojo ya penny mbili from @vvs. I never sent anyone to buy KQ at rights price. Not me! The internet never forgets..

KQ ABP 4.26
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VituVingiSana
#1399 Posted : Saturday, October 24, 2015 1:52:22 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
I have been looking to load up on more Housing Finance shares. My target buying price of 20/= was hit last week but I did not pull the trigger.

Given the current economic situation and Interest regime, banks profitability will most likely be hit due to lower loan intake! Have these issues been fully factored into the price (including market sentiments) or a we likely to see even lower prices?? I am not a speculator but I will take a lower buying price any day coz that way I can buy more! On the other hand, most investors don't benefit from lower prices because they keep waiting for them to go lower and eventually miss the bus!

I need different opinions from wazuans - from fundies to chartists/cartoonists - I put them in the same pot as mine nikoroge kidogo and make a decision!

Every time HFCK faces higher funding/deposit rates, it has problems. See the timing of their Rights Issues juxtaposed to the movement in interest rates.

A long-term lender like HFCK finds it harder to raise rates even if its funding costs increase.
You cannot easily 'foreclose' on a borrower who has borrowed 90% LTV.
The courts do not look kindly on lenders who hike rates even of their funding costs increase.

Enjoy 23% (less WTax) on GoK T-Bills & then buy HFCK with 23% more cash. I doubt HFCK's prices will rise by 18% anytime soon.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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instinct
#1400 Posted : Monday, October 26, 2015 6:09:10 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Finally some tangible results...


Housing Finance Group (HF) has posted a 9.6 per cent growth in net profit for the nine months to September driven by increased lending.


The listed mortgage lender reported an after-tax profit of Sh777 million as at end of September up from Sh709 million in a similar period last year.

“The increase in capital means that the banks capability of lending and deposit taking also increases,” said HF chief executive Frank Ireri.

The lender raised Sh3.5 billion through a rights issue at the beginning of the year.

READ: Housing Finance prices Sh3.5 bn cash call

Loans and advances to customers increased to Sh51.7 billion in September up from Sh43.2 billion posted during a similar period in 2014. Customer deposits increased to Sh37.5 billion up from Sh33.1 billion.


http://www.businessdaily...4/-/3vpvbw/-/index.html

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