@2012, u seem to have gotten it right on KPLC! Werent u the one who picked it at 205 just b4 the whole rights thingie was approved.
U r the KPLC guru, atleast a s far as price prediction goes!

So far this is panning out exactly as predicted.

Average price for today already tending down towards 25. Last trade at 24.25. I expect the share to trade at levels between 22 - 25 for the duration of the rights issue unless or until we observe the government rights changing hands. The premium for the GOK rights will determine the price at which other folks will be willing to buy rights on the market and the ex-rights price of the share.

However, price will go up once the rights issue closes or if GOK rights are sold at a "high" premium. Short term traders should take positions if they can get in at the lower end of this trading range (22-23.50) to sell in late December/early January.

For long term holders anything below 25 seems like a reasonable buy, although I would hold on to see whether it can go lower.

At 10% drop per day, how long can it take to reach 20/=?[

remember that on Wednesday (1st December) the 10% rule will not apply.

This is increasingly starting to looking like the KCB rights issue. The chance of popping in and making at least 15% net in a month is tempting. Sober, I also didn't get the low of 22.50.

May be i should have said pathetic loss for me, i made a rush buy at 27 yesterday well if i average with my existing shares its coming to 24. i would hav just been a little patient and bought the share today btw some people have purchased at 22.25, at such a price it beats the rights at 19.5. anyway i take heart that some people bought it at 30 oops

It was obvious this was going to happen since the Govt. is not taking up it's rights the wise thing to do is to push down the current mkt price so the rights can be at a price of btwn 0.20/- to 0.50/-. If the mkt price over 25/- the rights would trade btwn 1/- and 2/-.

If the mkt rate will be @22/- and below then the right should not go for more than 50cts.

This KPLC thing is simply crazy... the share is at 24 with a low of 22.5 traded.. (Are you aware that is 180bob pre split)

This helps me a whole lot because I can now get the rights at a very low premium off the market...

But I hope guys know the bounce back from these levels after the restructuring will be equally extraordinary so you're best bet is to start buying now like crazy...

Forecast EPS for FY 2010-11 is 2.54 thus PER = 8. If the hydrology is good during 2011-12 then EPS for 2011-12 should be much better.
Comment: Moving away from hydropower [reduction of reliance on hydro + thermal] to geothermal is a long-term project.

There are some 'immediate' projects that will add to KPLC's profits within 12 months [FY 2011-12]. IRRs of 20%+
Comment: What were they waiting for? Banks would have lent for this!

200,000 customers to be recruited in 2010-11 though these are mostly low-middle income consumers. Many users on diesel-generators so potential customers like lodges, mining, etc.
Comment: Note there is SUPPRESSED demand i.e. KPLC can't supply the current needs thus brownouts + blackouts.

Construction remains 'booming' thus urban connections are doing OK as new shops, flats, malls, etc are connected. Connected to economic growth.
Comment: Sigh, true... I can't escape cranes & construction traffic in Nairobi!

Theft is a HUGE problem but KPLC is:
- installing 320,000 pre-paid meters. Mostly residential. Apparently, these are harder to tamper with.
- Less interaction of staff with consumers [staff 'misreading' meters] or making illegal connections.
- Huge improvements in cash flow as pre-paid model works better. Cash receipts easier to monitor.
- Step up mulika mwizi. New dry transformers. Security team.
- Ramp up fibre. Connect all major towns with fibre to monitor sub-stations. National Control Centre.
- GoK support vital. Cops cracking down on mungiki & friends.
- GoK banned copper exports thanks to KPLC lobbying. Fewer outlets for stolen copper.

Comment: Kenyans need to 'squeal' on these crooks. Education is important but I believe shooting a few crooks [public execution] is even better.

I dont get the fascination guys get with corporate action like rights issue....a sort of its my duty to participate etc....I say sell in the excitement ie(at 240 pre-split) and buy when the excitement levels off...there is a very long historical evidence that this is the right way to act.