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Scubidu		#131 Posted : Tuesday, March 23, 2010 3:26:56 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi		@vvs. Z scores for KPLC / KQ below: (based on my calculation) 2006: (2.166) / (1.443) 2007: (1.804) / (1.546) 2008: (1.506) / (1.723) 2009: (1.653) / (1.498) The score looks at 5 components. I think it's best for everyone to calculate there own figures...I cud be wrong. As I mentioned the score may not be perfect but seems to highlight two things in KQ and KPLC that are problematic. In the case of KQ it may just be a one off event due to the fuel hedging accounting. The first problematic thing the z score picked was the negative working capital (noting that we're basing it on previous years figures)- KQ current ratio was 1.6 in 2008 then 0.9 in 2009, KPLC 1.1 in 2008 then 0.9 in 2009. The second component was gearing- KPLC ratio was 34% in 2008 then 28% in 2009, KQ 34% in 2008 and 58% in 2009 (these are my estimates). Like I said KQ situation may just be a one off event...but KPLC has taken more loans since 2006 and 2009 was the first time (since 2003) that working capital was negative. And that doesn't mean that they're going bust...Uchumi's ratio declined from 3.699 in 2002 to 0.027 in 2005 shortly b4 they told us to buy the rights...it's now 2.333. Will I buy them now??? No. The score tells me why. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Scubidu		#132 Posted : Tuesday, March 23, 2010 4:16:35 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi		@guru267. Quote: about the co-relation... its all over the NSE.. for companies with strong cash flow when the EPS goes up dividends go up.. representing a direct corelation between EPS and dividends.... Show me the correlation with Rea Vipingo, Sasini, Kakuzi...pick any of those agricultural EPSs for five years and correlate them to dividends paid+cashflow generated. I think all indicators can be picked apart if you factor in "company strategies to meet future obligations and future changes in the asset base", which sounds so subjective, how is the growth financed is also crucial. we all follow generally accepted guidelines...more debt, more risk...some crazy guy said don't buy high PE stocks cos there's expensive...ARM has averaged ~20x trailing pe between 2005-2009 but is the best performing stock within the same period (40%pa). Now I'm not saying the z score is reliable...it's not, but it may reveal shortcomings. ARM management say they'll be debt-free by 2013....do they intend to issue a 3 year corporate bond? What are they using the money for...capex, why would I issue long term funding in 2010 then retire it in 2013? At minimum 5yrs for the sake of matching maturities with other govt paper. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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sparkly		#133 Posted : Wednesday, March 24, 2010 5:02:32 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi		While you were on Z scores... Kakuzi traded 433,000 shares today. I think the institutions are jumping in with both feet. Life is short. Live passionately.
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VituVingiSana		#134 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 3:45:51 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,344 Location: Nairobi		sparkly wrote: While you were on Z scores... Kakuzi traded 433,000 shares today. I think the institutions are jumping in with both feet. LOL... nicely put... The PER is very low.. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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VituVingiSana		#135 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 3:48:19 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,344 Location: Nairobi		Scubidu wrote: @vvs. Z scores for KPLC / KQ below: (based on my calculation) 2006: (2.166) / (1.443) 2007: (1.804) / (1.546) 2008: (1.506) / (1.723) 2009: (1.653) / (1.498) Well... I think this Z-score is a bunch of crap... I mean... KQ, KPLC (among many other NSE firms) shud have been down the tubes since 2007 if this was to be believed... I prefer my own devices... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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guru267		#136 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 6:28:53 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		VituVingiSana wrote: Well... I think this Z-score is a bunch of crap... I mean... KQ, KPLC (among many other NSE firms) shud have been down the tubes since 2007 if this was to be believed... I prefer my own devices... @VVS you are soo right.. this scoring is only based on financials and it is EMPHASIZED on the site to use this Z scoring only after all other considerations... i mean if this way of scoring had any weight or relevance then why would institutions be pouring into these so called "unsafe" companies like they are doing now... Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Scubidu		#137 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 8:17:41 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi		@vvs @guru267 Okay Z-score aside. You guys heard about the Equity Linked Note ARM wants to introduce, not a conventional corporate bond...it sounds wickedly complex. When I get more details I'll post a new thread. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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VituVingiSana		#138 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 7:12:07 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,344 Location: Nairobi		mkonomtupu wrote: Now the agric stocks are now in full retreat. I pity those who bought at those high prices. Hope you don't get stuck for a long time. These agric stocks had a similar dance in the 1990's. Guru, EPS in agric stocks is never a good guide to make decisions. The next roller-coaster is going to the financials Say what? The Agricultural Shares (Kakuzi, Williamson & Kapchorua - 3 I own) have all returned 100% since the above was posted... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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mkonomtupu		#139 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 8:49:59 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road		Say what? The Agricultural Shares (Kakuzi, Williamson & Kapchorua - 3 I own) have all returned 100% since the above was posted...[/quote] The El-nino year has come to an end. The next one year is a la-nina year. Let's wait and see..the bubble with these stocks in the 1990's lasted 3 years.
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Gordon Gekko		#140 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 9:47:53 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760		@vvs, all the agrics are doing a number except the one I own - Sasini....
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