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Playing the market ..2026

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McGill		#131 Posted : Saturday, September 05, 2026 8:43:55 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 8/1/2019 Posts: 114		VituVingiSana wrote: obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: MaichBlack wrote: Kusadikika wrote: How much of the current market rally is being driven by Mansa X? Their Kenya Shilling Fund had 160+ billion shillings at the end of H1 2026. The NSE is small and even a fraction of that money will cause a rally. Could they be creating their own outsized returns by raising valuations caused by their own buying?🤔 160 Billion is approx. 3.9% of the NSE market cap. And they had they already had NSE holdings. Let's assume that was 2% already (being extreme on the lower side). That would put new purchases at 1.9% on the higher side. How would this cause a sustained market rally??? And how would one hope to cause a rally by buying and no slump while offloading the same volume. It would be a zero sum game!! Same demand CGEN shareholders are looking to exit as the price dips. Why was it rising with crazy multiples. Teach me master Some shareholders exiting part or whole of their positions after 10x gains in 2 years. Their shares. Their profits. Has Paul Wander Ndungu exited? I do not think so. Why? He has Diamond Hands. https://x.com/kahome_ste...089374222833398076?s=20 Meanwhile, others are looking at 460 in 8.5 months after FY26 results are announced. As long as it keeps growing at crazy rates we can even see 600 by end of 2027. I think we can see 1000 by the next 5yrs.
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VituVingiSana		#132 Posted : Sunday, September 06, 2026 2:05:42 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,441 Location: Nairobi		McGill wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: MaichBlack wrote: Kusadikika wrote: How much of the current market rally is being driven by Mansa X? Their Kenya Shilling Fund had 160+ billion shillings at the end of H1 2026. The NSE is small and even a fraction of that money will cause a rally. Could they be creating their own outsized returns by raising valuations caused by their own buying?🤔 160 Billion is approx. 3.9% of the NSE market cap. And they had they already had NSE holdings. Let's assume that was 2% already (being extreme on the lower side). That would put new purchases at 1.9% on the higher side. How would this cause a sustained market rally??? And how would one hope to cause a rally by buying and no slump while offloading the same volume. It would be a zero sum game!! Same demand CGEN shareholders are looking to exit as the price dips. Why was it rising with crazy multiples. Teach me master Some shareholders exiting part or whole of their positions after 10x gains in 2 years. Their shares. Their profits. Has Paul Wander Ndungu exited? I do not think so. Why? He has Diamond Hands. https://x.com/kahome_ste...089374222833398076?s=20 Meanwhile, others are looking at 460 in 8.5 months after FY26 results are announced. As long as it keeps growing at crazy rates we can even see 600 by end of 2027. I think we can see 1000 by the next 5yrs. There has to be some sort of consolidation at some points. That's okay and normal. Yes, I agree that IF it can keep up the growth in EPS then we can look at some sweet gains in the price. Watu, a huge contributor, is in 10 countries. Some, eg LATM, are new markets and will take time to mature. They will have to spend a lot to gain traction before they become profitable. C&G, without Watu, is also doing well but there are many headwinds especially in 2027. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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obiero		#133 Posted : Monday, September 07, 2026 10:30:13 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,481 Location: nairobi		MaichBlack wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: obiero wrote: obiero wrote: MaichBlack wrote: obiero wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: MaichBlack wrote: obiero wrote: obiero wrote: Please remember, tamaa iliuwa fisi. It is prudent that you consider offload of some of the stocks on nearest offer, ONO 1. KQ. NBV KES (31.16). (Start Price: Ksh 3.30; Current Price KES 7.58. Target/ONO Exit Price range Ksh 8.52 by Dec 31st 2026); About 150% Upside Speculative. Primary appreciation factor is the anticipated KES 69B capital injection by a strategic investor. A high risk play, where the share could face a fresh suspension 2. JUB. NBV KES 783 (Start Price: Ksh 345; Current Price KES 398. Target/ONO Exit Price range Ksh 420 by Dec 31st 2026); About 21% Upside Dominance in corporate insurance business. Strong sales in run up to the 2027 general election 3. DTB. NBV KES 310 (Start Price: Ksh 117; Current KES 150. Target/ONO Exit Price range Ksh 200 by Dec 31st 2026); About 70% Upside, excluding dividend gain Grossly undervalued tier 1 banking stock. 4. IMH. NBV 60.4 (Start Price: Ksh 44.90; Current KES 51 Target/ONO Exit Price range Ksh 54 by Dec 31st 2026); About 20% Upside, excluding dividend gain Emerging giant with steep ROI. Over 20% YoY PBT growth projection in near to mid term. 5. TPSEA. NBV KES 60.99 (Start Price: Ksh 15.75; Current KES 16.85. Target/ONO Exit Price range Ksh 30 by Dec 31st 2026); About 90% Upside Recovering tourism industry should restore lost glory. You have made a significant gain. It is safe to exit IMH. Thank me later When this was posted a week ago, we were at 60/= Now at 66.25/=. Clearly the advise was not good for either traders or investors. I hope you did NOT listen to @Obiero though given your skepticism with his pronouncements you probably did not. He is a pedestrian in this game. Atleast you, there's a history on your weird investment pattern Listening to @Obiero, making people poor since 1902!!! Hehe. You really make my days lively. Where would I be, without you DTB hits the sweet spot. Consider partial offload at KES 200 @Maich - Time to buy DTB as soon as it touches 200!!!! Let's recap in April 2028 after FY2027 results are out. Thanks @VVS. I have been building a war chest for Dangote Refineries. I want to talk to SBG next week and understand what is in store for us. The information out there is not consistent and Dangote himselfu keeps confusing me in interviews. Mara they want to give priority to retail investors, mara sijui Nigerians bla bla bla etc. I want to understand the likely structure so that I know if I should keep building the war chest or deploy my resources elsewhere. The idea is to throw all cash I will be having at Dangote Refineries then get back to NSE with the refund and new cash. I am NOT selling any of my current holdings though to fund the participation in the IPO. Just new resources. And all dividends!! TPSEA waking up COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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MaichBlack		#134 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2026 7:06:00 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 8,069		MaichBlack wrote: VituVingiSana wrote: MaichBlack wrote: obiero wrote: obiero wrote: MaichBlack wrote: MaichBlack wrote: obiero wrote: MaichBlack wrote: obiero wrote: MaichBlack wrote: obiero wrote: IMH cools off at KES 60 Next Day Updates: IMH uncools off at KES 66/=. Volume brother. Don't expose yourself Look at the real time data (bids and offers) and understand it. Don't expose yourself @Obiero. As we speak, demand quantity is 1,131,859 and bid price is 65/=. Shares on offer are only 157,811 with no one willing to sell at 65/= I hope you understand this @Obiero and I don't have to explain furthet!!! You are quite deluded boss, but time will heal. No one is willing to buy is the better view. In my assessment, IMH has reached fair value Your view is not required here. It is the (real time) data. When I posted, the DEMAND was 1,131,859 with a bid price price of 65/=. I hope you know what that means in basic terms. The supply was 157,811 with all offer prices above 65/=. I hope you also know what that means. If you seriously don't understand the above, then we should not be having this conversation!! It is not about feelings and opinions. Real actual data! You are entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts!! 69/= prints!!! People need to learn the basics! Even mama mboga cannot survive in business if she does not understand supply and demand and its obvious effect on price. Data, not personal opinions! Kaende kaende!! Vapor volumes persists. Pump and dump in full effect. Best of luck newbie Sell this thing today or latest tomorrow, fair value has been well and truly achieved. What if it goes to KES 90 or KES 100+, you ask. I am a trader, so that will no longer be my concern. Div yield now headed to 5% p.a range. A good dancer knows when to leave the stage. In victory you must learn to know when enough is enough Good morning @Obiero. 75/= prints!! Ignoring @Obiero making Kenyans rich since 1902!! 78.50 Sweeeet!!! Yet another day for the market to remind everyone never to listen to @Obiero!! Go through this message and see not only what he was saying but the force and conviction he was saying it with!! And it is not one off or a fluke. It is consistent. In the same short period, he did the same with KCB (he didn't have KCB though. Just said it was headed to 48/= and people should run!) and Coop! Then used all the money to buy KQ. Two weeks later they reported a 12 Billion half year loss. Share price tanked. @Obiero bailed out at sub 5.50/= and urged everyone to get out at 5.50/= after that the share price recovered!! 92/= prints!!! It hasn't even been 2 months since I posted this!!! #111 Posted : Friday, August 21, 2026 11:52:27 AM Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack		#135 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2026 9:17:08 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 8,069		I&M Bank wins Sh713m tax fight with KRA over bad debts Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Realtreaty		#136 Posted : Sunday, November 01, 2026 7:35:29 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,438		MaichBlack wrote: I&M Bank wins Sh713m tax fight with KRA over bad debts November or Yesvember is here and expect breaking news from Co-op Bank the Member as it announces 3/4 YR
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MaichBlack		#137 Posted : Wednesday, November 04, 2026 12:33:19 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 8,069		Realtreaty wrote: MaichBlack wrote: I&M Bank wins Sh713m tax fight with KRA over bad debts November or Yesvember is here and expect breaking news from Co-op Bank the Member as it announces 3/4 YR Clue us in. What breaking news? Usikuwe kama yule jamaa wa watch and learn kila saa! Actionoable info muhimu. Hata kama it is not official yet! Especially when it is not official yet!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Realtreaty		#138 Posted : Friday, November 06, 2026 7:53:47 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,438		MaichBlack wrote: Realtreaty wrote: MaichBlack wrote: I&M Bank wins Sh713m tax fight with KRA over bad debts November or Yesvember is here and expect breaking news from Co-op Bank the Member as it announces 3/4 YR Clue us in. What breaking news? Usikuwe kama yule jamaa wa watch and learn kila saa! Actionoable info muhimu. Hata kama it is not official yet! Especially when it is not official yet!! See the Price movement on this stock - It is on the go northwards and possible to dial 45 soon
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MaichBlack		#139 Posted : Sunday, November 08, 2026 1:06:41 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 8,069		Realtreaty wrote: MaichBlack wrote: Realtreaty wrote: MaichBlack wrote: I&M Bank wins Sh713m tax fight with KRA over bad debts November or Yesvember is here and expect breaking news from Co-op Bank the Member as it announces 3/4 YR Clue us in. What breaking news? Usikuwe kama yule jamaa wa watch and learn kila saa! Actionoable info muhimu. Hata kama it is not official yet! Especially when it is not official yet!! I want(ed) the underlying/background info. Not the price movement. Price movements are based on so many things including emotions. See the Price movement on this stock - It is on the go northwards and possible to dial 45 soon Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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young		#140 Posted : Sunday, November 08, 2026 8:18:20 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,091 Location: Lagos, Nigeria		ON COOP BANK Coop Bank will soon go the way of I&M in terms of capital appreciation. Really speaking based on their HY 2026 results and expected salutary Q3 results (I&M & Coop respectively) HY 2026:EPS of I&M is 5.16 that of Coop is 3.08. Coop is relatively cheap at the current 35.30-37.50 bob one week range. Besides interim dividend highly probable when Q3 result is out on Thursday 12th Nov The prevailing price explosion of I&M at 80+ indicates that Coop at the moment is HIBERNATING waiting to explode to 50+ in few months time like her peers notably I&M, KCB, Equity even DTK . Expect Coop bank in the 50s in March 2027. Steady rise expected in Dec/Jan/Feb Also Expect Family Bank in the 30s then The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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