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When is the Next NSE Bus Leaving the Stage
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500. Thats a 10yr chart with a large triangle. A break above 4000 will add more bullish strength while the opposite happens if a fall out of the lower part of the triangle happens. The lines convergence in Mar 2014 tho not shown on the chart. @hisah. A triangle has 5 waves and from your image my interpretation is that NSE should push slightly beyond 4000 points completing wave E(the fifth wave) b4 plunging downward. This to me is consistent with the status of the global economy which is in the initial stages of deflation whose bottom is 2016. One final upthrust towards 4000, before short term reversal. But due to the danger of deflation I expect another globally coordinated QE since euroland debt bomb is worse than Lehman. If it happens, equities will recover their mojo. But for how long since QE doesnt fix anything.
If the index reversal is sharp and does breach the lower trending line of the triangle, that will be bad news. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:guru267 wrote:Hi-Teck wrote:So, which stocks are undervalued and best to accumulate, whether short or Long term? KCB, Kenya re, unga just to name a few... Simba set to print 25 before long! How nice  before elections are done and dusted there is NOWHERE stocks are going from their current levels. except maybe the undevalued ones. the ones that havent rallied with the nse. by nowhere i mean no more than 20% from current price, if im wrong ill be very surprised . The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Safcon demand 15,648,600 supply 1,698,100 3.80 almost printing!
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Metasploit wrote:Safcon demand 15,648,600 supply 1,698,100
3.80 almost printing! Printed... What is going on today? I can also see crazy bids on CIC just listed. Or is it my monitor...
13:57:49 3.65 1,845,100 3.80 0.15 4.11%
13:47:55 3.65 200,000 3.80 0.15 4.11%
13:47:55 3.65 164,700 3.80 0.15 4.11%
13:47:55 3.65 200,000 3.80 0.15 4.11%$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Bloomberg wrote:Jan 13 2010 -- Safaricom Ltd., Kenya’s biggest mobile-network operator, had its price estimate raised to 6.40 shillings at Morgan Stanley, from 4.80 shillings.
“We reiterate our overweight on Safaricom, supported by a solid earnings backdrop for the next 12 months,” analysts including Sean Gardiner and Madhvendra Singh wrote in an e- mailed note to clients today.
2012
Safaricom Ltd. (SAFCOM) , East Africa’s biggest mobile- phone operator, rose to a two-week high, jumping 1.4 percent to 3.65 shillings. The stock was rated overweight, the equivalent of buy, with a 4.40 shilling price estimate in a research note by Morgan Stanley received by e-mail today. In 2012 BD wrote:This comes as global financial services firm Morgan Stanley, in a research note published this month said that Safaricom would be the biggest beneficiary from the delay in the MTR cut, adding that the freeze would discourage more aggressive tariff reductions from Airtel and Yu. Yep, MS is back. This year they stated that lower MTR would squeeze mpesa bank, but now that MTR deal for 1.60 rate has been thrown into disarray... Back in 2009 MS priced it at 4.80. I guess that's where we will see this thing fly! http://www.businessdaily.../0/-/ul2s7f/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Yields on Kenya's 182-day T-bills rise to 12.801 pct - http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFL6E8IIFWC20120718
Tbill yields still rising, NSE still rising... The tbill auctions are still undersubscribed. I don't like what I'm seeing. This is an ugly fight between equities and money markets and the loser will bleed badly... Quote:Commercial banks have been putting their funds into Term
Auction Deposits in the repurchase agreements market, which have
been offering higher returns than Treasury bills. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/11/2009 Posts: 1,223
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There are also other non-listed *buses* which may be leaving the stage sooner than later. Its time wazuans took a stake in UNAITAS formerly muramati. CIC did the same thing in 2010 and we took up positions and you can guess where we are today after Kibaki rang that famous bell! A share its still at 10bob! *BGL does not work for UNAITAS and has no intention of working for them in the next 10yrs* History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mpesa bank is showing strength than the index... Bulls taking over!  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:Mpesa bank is showing strength than the index... Bulls taking over! Only a paltry 500K shares on offer at 3.95 against a 20M demand. Should touch 4 bob before week close! The delay in announcing new(and lower) MTR is definately working for them! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/22/2010 Posts: 510 Location: De egg
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:Mpesa bank is showing strength than the index... Bulls taking over! Only a paltry 500K shares on offer at 3.95 against a 20M demand. Should touch 4 bob before week close! The delay in announcing new(and lower) MTR is definately working for them! Don't tell me that this Mpesa touched 3.95 while I was away . Peace be with you
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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3825.93 - a 12 month high. Brought to us courtesy of Mpesa Bank which is on a 16 month closing high!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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i love the unpredictability and the euphoria The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Coop, Equity and KCB volumes picking up this week... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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maligumu wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:Mpesa bank is showing strength than the index... Bulls taking over! Only a paltry 500K shares on offer at 3.95 against a 20M demand. Should touch 4 bob before week close! The delay in announcing new(and lower) MTR is definately working for them! Don't tell me that this Mpesa touched 3.95 while I was away . Touched 4/- today (a week later) with huge turnover - 109M on 27M share volume with VWAP @3.95.
I guess MS target of 4.40 will be achieved before book closure which is 50 days from today.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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NSE 20-share index up 32.56 points to close at 3,878.4 GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mpesa bank volumes still high on day 2 - looking to break 4/- resistance level. Will require more buying pressure to break that level down. Too many sellers at this level need to be cleaned out. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mpesa bank yet again on day 3 is the most actively traded counter - 14M shares. The 4/- floor on CIC has been defended and VWAP stands at 4.50. Next destination a retest of 5.25 (listing high). I'm still concerned about what I'm seeing with the money markets (tbills). Yesterday's auction results are in and 91day weighted rate is now at 13.52% up from 12.92% last week. 182day and 364day yields will equally follow the 91day yield rise. Like I've stated before equities and money markets are inversely related in performance. Very soon the relation will come home to roost and if the tbill rates continue their upward reversal, equities will come down to earth... Also from a technical perspective the index is overbought and due for a correction. I'd pause or take profits where necessary especially those stocks that have flipped more than 50% gains.  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@ hisah. It is perplexing that t bills and stocks are rising at the same time. Do you remember a few months ago when t bills had come down to just about 10% and the NSE stayed below 3400 for a while? Anyway, i also see equities coming back. everyone is now getting into the euphoria, getting excited, predictions of even higher prices. In retrospect what really caused the NSE to fall to 3100 six-eight months ago? EU?, Inflation? currency weakening? high interest rates? pre election fever? It makes no sense that it happened at that time. What do you think will be the effect of the elections on the NSE. Where do you see the index 3-6 months before the elections? I personally think that the index has to fall significantly before the elections though the clouds are not here yet. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:@ hisah. It is perplexing that t bills and stocks are rising at the same time. Do you remember a few months ago when t bills had come down to just about 10% and the NSE stayed below 3400 for a while? Anyway, i also see equities coming back. everyone is now getting into the euphoria, getting excited, predictions of even higher prices.
In retrospect what really caused the NSE to fall to 3100 six-eight months ago? EU?, Inflation? currency weakening? high interest rates? pre election fever?
It makes no sense that it happened at that time.
What do you think will be the effect of the elections on the NSE. Where do you see the index 3-6 months before the elections?
I personally think that the index has to fall significantly before the elections though the clouds are not here yet. If tbill yields (esp 91 day)continue the meltup then the index will slip to 3500. Heavy buying occurred at this level. Globally eurozone debt bomb esp with Spanish 10yr bond yields melting up to unsustainable levels above 7% is dangerous biz for markets. The eurozone is under serious distress and any nation stating the D word would send markets tumbling like a rock. Should uncle bernanke decide that eurozone needs some helping hand and does a heavy USD printing, then this could sustain the markets where they are including NSE. So I'm looking at it from a global perspective rather than what is going on in KE. If euro crashes foreign investors will exit NSE in a huff as all markets will be spooked while QE will have the opposite effect. And with the USD long term charts showing a possibility of multi-year strength, QE is more likely to be offered to stem off that strength. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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hisah wrote:Mpesa bank yet again on day 3 is the most actively traded counter - 14M shares. The 4/- floor on CIC has been defended and VWAP stands at 4.50. Next destination a retest of 5.25 (listing high). I'm still concerned about what I'm seeing with the money markets (tbills). Yesterday's auction results are in and 91day weighted rate is now at 13.52% up from 12.92% last week. 182day and 364day yields will equally follow the 91day yield rise. Like I've stated before equities and money markets are inversely related in performance. Very soon the relation will come home to roost and if the tbill rates continue their upward reversal, equities will come down to earth... Also from a technical perspective the index is overbought and due for a correction. I'd pause or take profits where necessary especially those stocks that have flipped more than 50% gains. Aha! Hisa there are banks that are offering fixed deposit rates of 16% and above for amnts >/= to 1M. Treasury bill rates going up is music to some of us.
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