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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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obiero
#1291 Posted : Monday, May 18, 2015 7:38:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,222
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
jerry wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
wale walio bado ndani ya hii gari.. chungeni mfuko!!! i will explain later

The price is still way too high for this stock and with a rights issue on the way, I shall buy 100 shares at 45 or below and then wait.. Fair value ignoring all
emotions is KES 32

So my sale at 31/= early this year was ok? I needed the cash badly then!

still trading at a premium price of kes 40.. buyer beware. but we are getting close to its real price

@30, we must re-enter! thats where the value lies and since some guys bought the monkey at 45 or higher, it will be a real bargain


KQ ABP 4.26
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, May 18, 2015 7:42 PM | Reason: Not specified
mlennyma
#1292 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 10:06:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
At 45bob 100 shares before rights was worth 4,500,after rights the 100 shares increased to 150 divide by 4500 total 30bob,conclusion hfck sold this shares at no discount.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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MaichBlack
#1293 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 10:26:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,840
Could the 29.50/= which printed yesterday be the bottom for this share?

Not many would be willing to sell it below 30/=. My thoughts.

One of my confusing times. To pull or not to pull the trigger. That is the question!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Aguytrying
#1294 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 12:10:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
MaichBlack wrote:
Could the 29.50/= which printed yesterday be the bottom for this share?

Not many would be willing to sell it below 30/=. My thoughts.

One of my confusing times. To pull or not to pull the trigger. That is the question!


We'll just confuse you. it depends on the current market cycle, which if u believe the techies its a bear.
if u believe the optimists its a correction
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Metasploit
#1295 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 12:17:37 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Aguytrying wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Could the 29.50/= which printed yesterday be the bottom for this share?

Not many would be willing to sell it below 30/=. My thoughts.

One of my confusing times. To pull or not to pull the trigger. That is the question!


We'll just confuse you. it depends on the current market cycle, which if u believe the techies its a bear.
if u believe the optimists its a correction


Not a correction..check HFCK 3 year chart!! critical support at 32-33 have been breached..Bears poking holes to test supply side..

Next support for HFCK is at 23

Big volumes have been exchanging hands in likes of DTB,KCB etc etc with action not being price increase but slight price decrease (distribution..????)

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Aguytrying
#1296 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 12:22:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Aguytrying wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Could the 29.50/= which printed yesterday be the bottom for this share?

Not many would be willing to sell it below 30/=. My thoughts.

One of my confusing times. To pull or not to pull the trigger. That is the question!


We'll just confuse you. it depends on the current market cycle, which if u believe the techies its a bear.
if u believe the optimists its a correction


To avoid confusion. value this share pre rights. then add a premium to what u think its worth. for me I would rather disregard the cash as a way to be conservative in a valuation.
so the factor is 1.5.
whatever its worth now x 1.5 gives the pre rights price.
so at 30x1.5= 45.
Then you can gauge the value properly .

The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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The optimist
#1297 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 12:35:06 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Could the 29.50/= which printed yesterday be the bottom for this share?

Not many would be willing to sell it below 30/=. My thoughts.

One of my confusing times. To pull or not to pull the trigger. That is the question!


We'll just confuse you. it depends on the current market cycle, which if u believe the techies its a bear.
if u believe the optimists its a correction


To avoid confusion. value this share pre rights. then add a premium to what u think its worth. for me I would rather disregard the cash as a way to be conservative in a valuation.
so the factor is 1.5.
whatever its worth now x 1.5 gives the pre rights price.
so at 30x1.5= 45.
Then you can gauge the value properly .

Nice.That's a simple and straightforward way of comparing the price and value pre and post rights.
On the premium, my problem is gauging the premium based on the capital raised from the rights issue.
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mkonomtupu
#1298 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 12:36:06 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Battle of the fundies and techies. Also eyeing an entry but I would go with a 50% retracement from 45 which comes 22.5 a flat line will most form here
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mlennyma
#1299 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 1:40:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
A flat or profit decline in H1 should take us to 25 and below
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Aguytrying
#1300 Posted : Tuesday, May 19, 2015 3:14:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
A flat or profit decline in H1 should take us to 25 and below


If its a proper bear. not mtoto wa bear. ill start getting interested 13-20. I know that sounds extreme, but note. The mother bear.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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