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karanjakinuthia
#121 Posted : Sunday, December 13, 2009 7:56:05 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Please review the following article from trading supremo Dan Norcini. It echoes sentiments I have expressed underpinning the commodity sector.

Equipped with this understanding, you can acknowledge the fact that price controls are a gargantuan WOMBAT (Waste of Money, Brains and Time). Unintended consequences of declining production, shortages and a black market are bound to hound politicians too eager to please the populace without learning from past mistakes of socialist states.

"One of the fundamental inputs in a gold bull market is a steady rise in the price of commodities. While in a bull market, gold trades primarily as a currency, its association with the commodity world cannot be neglected in the sense that commodities become an asset class that is sought out by investors to inoculate themselves from the depreciation of the native currency. In general, if commodities are rising, it is a signal that:

1.) economic growth is strong, credit is relatively available and demand for underlying commodities is therefore robust resulting in rising prices across the board

and/or

2.) confidence in paper assets is waning and investors are seeking wealth preservation in things tangible....."

Read more:

http://jsmineset.com/200...inuous-commodity-index/

Long term chart:

http://www.facebook.com/...575924&id=649361247
karanjakinuthia
#122 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 1:26:21 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
In light of recent turbulence in international debt markets brought about by strained financial postures of Dubai, Greece, Spain, the intention of the Kenyan government to issue debt in international markets should be re-assessed. The last time the government had set its sights on the overseas debt markets was the turbulent 2007 period. Preference was then given to local markets, which have proved resilient and overwhelmingly eager for commercial and sovereign debt.

Going forward, persistent stress in debt markets will invariably push up interest rates.

"It is becoming a familiar story: bond markets in crisis, gilt yields soaring, the government struggling to convince international creditors that it can bring down spiralling budget deficits.

But the City's wobbly response to the Chancellor's pre-Budget report this week was a pale shadow compared with the carnage in Greece.

After a week that saw the Greek sovereign debt downgraded below the prized A-rating for the first time in a decade, and the worst bond market collapse in the history of the eurozone, Athens was scrabbling to restore confidence yesterday. At a two-day EU summit in Brussels, the Prime Minister, George Papandreou, promised far-reaching cuts in his country's bloated bureaucracy and an assault on its rampant corruption...."

Read more:

http://www.independent.c...for-uk-debt-1838885.html
karanjakinuthia
#123 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 1:48:38 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
The heirarchy of commodities is as follows:

1. precious metals
2. energy
3. food
4. base metals

Based on supply and demand fundamentals, some foodstuffs are yet to enjoy their day in the sun. Coffee, sugar and milk come to mind.

"Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Falling production in commodities from rice to milk is bad news for just about everyone except investors.

Rice may surge 63 percent to $1,038 a metric ton from $638 on Philippine imports and a shortage in India, a Bloomberg survey of importers, exporters and analysts showed. The U.S. government says nonfat dry milk may jump 39 percent next year, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasts a 25 percent gain for sugar. Global food costs jumped 7 percent in November, the most since February 2008, four months before reaching a record, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization...."

Read more:

http://www.bloomberg.com...=aBYSp0.XfXZs&pos=14
karanjakinuthia
#124 Posted : Wednesday, December 16, 2009 11:53:43 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Like Tiger, European banks are not out of the woods yet.

"Finance minister Josef Pröll said the government had been forced by fast-moving events to take a 100pc stake in the bank, Austria's sixth biggest lender with assets of €42bn (£38bn).

"The risk situation of this bank has created an enormous threat to Austria, to its future as a financial centre, and to the whole economic region in recent days and weeks," he said, speaking after a 14-hour emergency session overnight on Sunday...."

Read more:

http://www.telegraph.co....aring-domino-crisis.html
karanjakinuthia
#125 Posted : Wednesday, December 16, 2009 12:24:58 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Sovereign debt risk is front and centre of investors attention this holiday season. Governments in deficit spending to bailout and stimulate their economies were hoping that the bill would not come due until they left office. Desert wonderland, Dubai changed all that with the threat of the dreaded "D" word.

D is for default.

Debt holders are hoping that the liquidity taps will be left on (ECB's rescue of Austrian bank Hypo) or sovereign wealth funds will come to the rescue (Abu Dhabi's bailout of Dubai). Either way they stand to loose as their holdings are being devalued. Interest rates in the U.S., U.K. and Germany are once more inching up to reflect increasing risk of default going into 2010.

"Ratings agency Moody’s takes up the sovereign subject again on Tuesday, with its 2010 outlook on sovereign risk. And the mood, as the below chart should demonstrate, is rather miserable.

Moody’s has compiled a 1970s-style ‘Misery’ index. But instead of showing inflation and unemployment rates, it shows the fiscal deficit and the unemployment rate.

On that basis, Spain, followed by Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Greece and the UK are the gloomiest Moody’s-rated sovereigns in the world. The US is eighth — just after Iceland...."

Read more:

http://ftalphaville.ft.c...eign-states-a-suffering/
karanjakinuthia
#126 Posted : Friday, December 18, 2009 6:07:04 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
A supply crisis on the back of a long term bull market is the stuff that price spikes are made of. This is one pricey brew.

"The top price for Kenya's benchmark AA grade coffee soared by 79 per cent to $601 per 50-kg bag ahead of a month-long break and on good quality beans, exporters said on Wednesday.

"We have just started receiving the main crop coffee and the prices are very firm. We had lots of AAs selling at $601 (per bag)," said Peter Kinyua, managing director of Servicoff exporters.

AA exchanged hands at $601-$194 per 50-kg bag, compared with $336-$209 per bag at the last sale two weeks ago...."

Read more:

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/hf73ayz/-/index.html
karanjakinuthia
#127 Posted : Friday, December 18, 2009 3:21:29 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
While shepherds watched

While PMs watched their stocks last March
Go crashing to the ground
Bernanke and his angel Tim
Declared the system sound.

“Fear not,” said they, for mighty dread
Had seized investors’ minds.
An endless stream of dollar bills
And bailouts we’ve designed.

Thus spake Bernanke, and forthwith
Appeared a shining throng:
Economists and strategists
Recommending you go long.

The markets soared, liquidity returned
To sceptics’ great surprise;
You even bought the ABX
As home prices did rise.

The moral of this story is
In grave financial trouble:
Injecting soap makes things look clean
But beware the coming bubble.

http://ftalphaville.ft.c...christmas-credit-carols/
karanjakinuthia
#128 Posted : Saturday, December 19, 2009 5:32:18 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Hot off the press!

"DENVER — Royal Gold Corp. said Friday it agreed to buy International Royalty Corp. for 749 million Canadian dollars ($706.9 million) in cash and stock, creating a company with expanded royalties in gold and other precious metals.

The agreement comes nearly two weeks after Franco-Nevada Corp. of Toronto submitted an unsolicited cash offer of 6.75 Canadian dollars ($6.42) per share for IRC.

All three companies earn revenue from royalties they hold at mines around the world. IRC's sought-after royalties include Barrick Gold Corp.'s Pascua-Lama gold, silver and copper mine under development in Chile...."

Read more:

http://www.google.com/ho...rJi06R24CYAXa4wD9CLROE80
karanjakinuthia
#129 Posted : Saturday, December 19, 2009 10:14:24 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Steve Keen understands debt better than anyone. Another good interview that he did for Frisby’s Bulls And Bears. His take on the lack of understanding of economists is spot on.

http://economicedge.blog...iew-predictions-for.html
karanjakinuthia
#130 Posted : Sunday, December 20, 2009 4:16:25 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
A Most Merry Christmas and a Golden New Year to you all!

http://vimeo.com/440842
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