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Uchumi - A value play?
Plimsoul
#241 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2016 3:57:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/3/2016
Posts: 132
@Obiero How has your portfolio done in the last 24-36 months?
obiero
#242 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2016 4:13:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,516
Location: nairobi
Plimsoul wrote:
@Obiero How has your portfolio done in the last 24-36 months?

please check the thread, 'worst mistakes in investing'.. therein I have given all my NSE trade details since 2006

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
obiero
#243 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2016 4:21:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,516
Location: nairobi
Spikes wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
enyands wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
enyands wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
enyands wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
Just wondering if any creditor say a bank might have relied on Lang'ata Branch title to secure a loan against Uchumi. Was the branch built during the days of good old dj?


The issue may not be the branch [or where it is located] but the 'other' land adjacent to Wilson. The original hypermart was built in the 90s when Suresh Shah was the MD when Uchumi was already a public company.



Hope DJ didn't have any hand in this
It would not surprise me. Not at all.


If that's the case let the shafting continue ....

kenyan land cases take ages,si wata collapse?

This can be tied up in court for upto 5 years! Poor Uchumi if they are on the winning side because it means it needs to spend cash to fight the case and cannot sell the property until the case is over.

hence reason it still appears on yasserbigchair stocks to sell


I would sell if I had shares here. This is a time bomb in the making . I feel sorry for the former kws, I guess he should go back to equity

I told you this guy is disruptive. Too quick to act. Simply asking around, would have made him aware that the Langata hyper land was illegally acquired. Heck, he could even have searched wazua!

21.11.2015

On 15.10.2015 I warned all about the imminent doom. On 21.11.2015 a reminder was issued.. the exchange bar never gets it wrong. I sell KCB at 60 and it tanks all the way to KES 35, they call it luck. I offload HF at KES 30 and it falls to KES 19, they call it luck. Now, with KQ and it rises to KES 24, they shall again call it luck?? Binadamu jameni



If you are not part of insider job how do you know 24/- high?

basically prior to the rights issue when @vvs was one of us.. the KQ share was trading at range over KES 30 - 52 for over 1 year. News of the rights trended it on a harsh spiral downwards to circa KES 14 being the rights price.. In essence, no shareholder bought at KES 14 expecting the share to remain at KES 14; but rather appreciate in value. Further, the volumes noted at KES 8.50 were among the highest on record. In essence, the fair price of KQ even as of this day, should be KES 8.50 at a minimum. Upon improved performance, KES 15.00 and upon return to profit ways no one knows how high we shall go, but KES 24 is assured..

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Plimsoul
#244 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2016 4:30:08 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/3/2016
Posts: 132
obiero wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
@Obiero How has your portfolio done in the last 24-36 months?

please check the thread, 'worst mistakes in investing'.. therein I have given all my NSE trade details since 2006


Got it. 59% return in 10 years. Or 4.8% p.a.
obiero
#245 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2016 4:37:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,516
Location: nairobi
Plimsoul wrote:
obiero wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
@Obiero How has your portfolio done in the last 24-36 months?

please check the thread, 'worst mistakes in investing'.. therein I have given all my NSE trade details since 2006


Got it. 59% return in 10 years. Or 4.8% p.a.

Yes, but that is a juakali estimate. I say so since most bulk trades were done in the last four years. Bought my first 100 HF shares in 2006 and rarely had enough money to obtain more than KES 5,000 worth of shares at a go, since I had invested relatively huge sums in real estate projects at Kitengela, Embakasi, Kakamega & Kisii; which have now brought in steady rental income that I can spare; hence increased frequency of stock purchases in last few years

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Plimsoul
#246 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2016 4:40:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/3/2016
Posts: 132
obiero wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
obiero wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
@Obiero How has your portfolio done in the last 24-36 months?

please check the thread, 'worst mistakes in investing'.. therein I have given all my NSE trade details since 2006


Got it. 59% return in 10 years. Or 4.8% p.a.

Yes, but that is a juakali estimate. I say so since most bulk trades were done in the last four years. Bought my first 100 HF shares in 2006 and rarely had enough money to obtain more than KES 5,000 worth of shares at a go, since I had invested relatively huge sums in real estate projects at Kitengela, Embakasi, Kakamega & Kisii; which have now brought in steady rental income that I can spare; hence increased frequency of stock purchases in last few years


I see. Can you post dates of transactions, so we can make a better estimate?
obiero
#247 Posted : Friday, June 24, 2016 5:05:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,516
Location: nairobi
Plimsoul wrote:
obiero wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
obiero wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
@Obiero How has your portfolio done in the last 24-36 months?

please check the thread, 'worst mistakes in investing'.. therein I have given all my NSE trade details since 2006


Got it. 59% return in 10 years. Or 4.8% p.a.

Yes, but that is a juakali estimate. I say so since most bulk trades were done in the last four years. Bought my first 100 HF shares in 2006 and rarely had enough money to obtain more than KES 5,000 worth of shares at a go, since I had invested relatively huge sums in real estate projects at Kitengela, Embakasi, Kakamega & Kisii; which have now brought in steady rental income that I can spare; hence increased frequency of stock purchases in last few years


I see. Can you post dates of transactions, so we can make a better estimate?

Hio kazi ni ngumu kaka/dada.. Work with the years

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
hisah
#248 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 2:47:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Is Jamii Bora back peddling on bad investment decisions?

Quote:
Banks are not supposed to be in the business of business per se. Section 3.4.1 (b) of the Guideline on Prohibited Business contained in the Central Bank of Kenya Prudential Guidelines states that the Banking Act prohibits an institution from acquiring or holding, directly or indirectly any part of the share capital of, or otherwise have a beneficial interest in any financial, commercial, agricultural, industrial or other undertaking, where the value of the institution’s interest would exceed in the aggregate 25 per cent of the institution’s core capital. --> Very red flag on this bank. CBK should be watching.

In fact, the IM tepidly posits that the mitigant: “As a policy the company does not open stores in locations that are in close proximity to other Uchumi outlets and does not therefore cannibalise their existing stores.” The IM in totality raises several questions on the historical business case of Uchumi and warranted a fairly robust and extensive due diligence before any shilling was disbursed on closure date.

It is actually quite disingenuous for any institutional investor to claim that they relied solely on an Information Memorandum to make an investment decision equating to 22.7 per cent of their core capital. That’s the stuff that fairy tales are made of.


Tearing apart the BS explanation availed by the JB CEO to the shareholders in the AGM about Uchumi investment gone bad. Shame on you

The said CEO is now the chair of NSE... Fish market this one Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mkate_nusu
#249 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 1:25:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
Should this monkey even be trading?
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
Plimsoul
#250 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 5:18:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/3/2016
Posts: 132
While uchumi struggles, Nakumatt revenues hit Sh 70 billion!!! It was 40 billion just 3 years ago.

Clearly, the market doesn't wait for you to sort out your problems.

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...M1KxMXEAA-b0T.jpg:large

https://twitter.com/coac...atus/748500424521617408

When will Nakumatt list and share the wealth?
Ericsson
#251 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 5:41:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
@Plimsoul
Out of that revenue how much profit did they make and how much debt do they have in their books
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Plimsoul
#252 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 5:49:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/3/2016
Posts: 132
Ericsson wrote:
@Plimsoul
Out of that revenue how much profit did they make and how much debt do they have in their books


Oh, their accounts are quite private. I have no idea though I'd love to know myself.

Maybe someone else here might know?
Plimsoul
#253 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 6:10:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/3/2016
Posts: 132
Ericsson wrote:
@Plimsoul
Out of that revenue how much profit did they make and how much debt do they have in their books


Actually here are some numbers for 2014:

Revenue: 51.6 billion
PBT: 305 million (823 million 2013, westgate?)
Debt: 15 billion

From a BD article: http://www.businessdaily...08/-/x9i5cz/-/index.html
VituVingiSana
#254 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 7:52:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Plimsoul wrote:
While uchumi struggles, Nakumatt revenues hit Sh 70 billion!!! It was 40 billion just 3 years ago.

Clearly, the market doesn't wait for you to sort out your problems.

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...M1KxMXEAA-b0T.jpg:large

https://twitter.com/coac...atus/748500424521617408

When will Nakumatt list and share the wealth?

Careful. They have a lot of debt. Suppliers are bitching about late/delayed payments by Nakumatt. It just happens there is no effective or substantial competitor so Nakumatt rules the roost.

The retail supermarket biashara is tough with lots of fixed costs. Even Warren Buffett got burned with Tesco (UK).
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Plimsoul
#255 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 8:23:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/3/2016
Posts: 132
VituVingiSana wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
While uchumi struggles, Nakumatt revenues hit Sh 70 billion!!! It was 40 billion just 3 years ago.

Clearly, the market doesn't wait for you to sort out your problems.

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...M1KxMXEAA-b0T.jpg:large

https://twitter.com/coac...atus/748500424521617408

When will Nakumatt list and share the wealth?

Careful. They have a lot of debt. Suppliers are bitching about late/delayed payments by Nakumatt. It just happens there is no effective or substantial competitor so Nakumatt rules the roost.

The retail supermarket biashara is tough with lots of fixed costs. Even Warren Buffett got burned with Tesco (UK).


Yeah, I saw the Sh 15 billion in debt. It's possible they're abusing their market dominance to shortchange suppliers and not necessarily because of cash flow problems. But I don't really know much about them. I'd love access to their financials.

Still, I think a company with that much revenue should definitely be listed. If nothing else, it'll be a great source of information for what's happening in the real economy. Plus it'll make it easier to raise capital for them, equity or debt.
VituVingiSana
#256 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 9:50:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Plimsoul wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
While uchumi struggles, Nakumatt revenues hit Sh 70 billion!!! It was 40 billion just 3 years ago.

Clearly, the market doesn't wait for you to sort out your problems.

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...M1KxMXEAA-b0T.jpg:large

https://twitter.com/coac...atus/748500424521617408

When will Nakumatt list and share the wealth?

Careful. They have a lot of debt. Suppliers are bitching about late/delayed payments by Nakumatt. It just happens there is no effective or substantial competitor so Nakumatt rules the roost.

The retail supermarket biashara is tough with lots of fixed costs. Even Warren Buffett got burned with Tesco (UK).


Yeah, I saw the Sh 15 billion in debt. It's possible they're abusing their market dominance to shortchange suppliers and not necessarily because of cash flow problems. But I don't really know much about them. I'd love access to their financials.

Still, I think a company with that much revenue should definitely be listed. If nothing else, it'll be a great source of information for what's happening in the real economy. Plus it'll make it easier to raise capital for them, equity or debt.

Equity: The negativity associated with a public listing can be a hindrance. Today, Nakumatt can find a PE firm to invest in it quietly. No drama. If it was listed and wanted to sell a stake to a Strategic Investor, it needs shareholder approval at AGM/EGM, CMA approval, etc. Plus it needs to publish information that its competitors will look at.

Debt: How many firms raise 'public' debt? Very few. Most go to banks since banks are more flexible and can structure a loan as needed.

Even Berkshire Hathaway, in many ways, acts as a 'private' firm and raises most of its loans from banks though it does issue debt if needed. In Kenya, the process for issuing a (listed) bond can take a while & costs quite a bit. Pay CMA, NSE, brokers, advertise, etc.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Plimsoul
#257 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2016 10:43:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/3/2016
Posts: 132
VituVingiSana wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
While uchumi struggles, Nakumatt revenues hit Sh 70 billion!!! It was 40 billion just 3 years ago.

Clearly, the market doesn't wait for you to sort out your problems.

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...M1KxMXEAA-b0T.jpg:large

https://twitter.com/coac...atus/748500424521617408

When will Nakumatt list and share the wealth?

Careful. They have a lot of debt. Suppliers are bitching about late/delayed payments by Nakumatt. It just happens there is no effective or substantial competitor so Nakumatt rules the roost.

The retail supermarket biashara is tough with lots of fixed costs. Even Warren Buffett got burned with Tesco (UK).


Yeah, I saw the Sh 15 billion in debt. It's possible they're abusing their market dominance to shortchange suppliers and not necessarily because of cash flow problems. But I don't really know much about them. I'd love access to their financials.

Still, I think a company with that much revenue should definitely be listed. If nothing else, it'll be a great source of information for what's happening in the real economy. Plus it'll make it easier to raise capital for them, equity or debt.

Equity: The negativity associated with a public listing can be a hindrance. Today, Nakumatt can find a PE firm to invest in it quietly. No drama. If it was listed and wanted to sell a stake to a Strategic Investor, it needs shareholder approval at AGM/EGM, CMA approval, etc. Plus it needs to publish information that its competitors will look at.

Debt: How many firms raise 'public' debt? Very few. Most go to banks since banks are more flexible and can structure a loan as needed.

Even Berkshire Hathaway, in many ways, acts as a 'private' firm and raises most of its loans from banks though it does issue debt if needed. In Kenya, the process for issuing a (listed) bond can take a while & costs quite a bit. Pay CMA, NSE, brokers, advertise, etc.


Wow, you are incredibly pessimistic. Have some faith in our capital markets.

If a brand is strong enough, like I think Nakumatt is, listing only lifts it higher, it doesn't weigh it down at all. Like Safaricom, EABL. I think KCB and Equity would have less respect, as it were, if they were not listed.

Strategic investors, and private equity investments mean significant loss of control and setting off in a whole new direction. But even then, its possible to do that either in the Scangroup did it, or Access Kenya and CMC (not the best example).

KCB aims to raise Sh 10 billion through a rights issue. I don't see how they would have done that easily as a private company, especially coming only a few years after its last capital raise.

As for debt, that hassle is worth it to access longer term bonds at favourable rates I think. Think Centum. I doubt bank loans would have been attractive for those projects.

There's so much money in the economy chasing few investment options that I would welcome large, profitable, well run businesses to list. Not the tiny GEMS type. Those can stay private.

VituVingiSana
#258 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2016 1:02:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Plimsoul wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
While uchumi struggles, Nakumatt revenues hit Sh 70 billion!!! It was 40 billion just 3 years ago.

Clearly, the market doesn't wait for you to sort out your problems.

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...M1KxMXEAA-b0T.jpg:large

https://twitter.com/coac...atus/748500424521617408

When will Nakumatt list and share the wealth?

Careful. They have a lot of debt. Suppliers are bitching about late/delayed payments by Nakumatt. It just happens there is no effective or substantial competitor so Nakumatt rules the roost.

The retail supermarket biashara is tough with lots of fixed costs. Even Warren Buffett got burned with Tesco (UK).


Yeah, I saw the Sh 15 billion in debt. It's possible they're abusing their market dominance to shortchange suppliers and not necessarily because of cash flow problems. But I don't really know much about them. I'd love access to their financials.

Still, I think a company with that much revenue should definitely be listed. If nothing else, it'll be a great source of information for what's happening in the real economy. Plus it'll make it easier to raise capital for them, equity or debt.

Equity: The negativity associated with a public listing can be a hindrance. Today, Nakumatt can find a PE firm to invest in it quietly. No drama. If it was listed and wanted to sell a stake to a Strategic Investor, it needs shareholder approval at AGM/EGM, CMA approval, etc. Plus it needs to publish information that its competitors will look at.

Debt: How many firms raise 'public' debt? Very few. Most go to banks since banks are more flexible and can structure a loan as needed.

Even Berkshire Hathaway, in many ways, acts as a 'private' firm and raises most of its loans from banks though it does issue debt if needed. In Kenya, the process for issuing a (listed) bond can take a while & costs quite a bit. Pay CMA, NSE, brokers, advertise, etc.


Wow, you are incredibly pessimistic. Have some faith in our capital markets.

If a brand is strong enough, like I think Nakumatt is, listing only lifts it higher, it doesn't weigh it down at all. Like Safaricom, EABL. I think KCB and Equity would have less respect, as it were, if they were not listed.

Strategic investors, and private equity investments mean significant loss of control and setting off in a whole new direction. But even then, its possible to do that either in the Scangroup did it, or Access Kenya and CMC (not the best example).

KCB aims to raise Sh 10 billion through a rights issue. I don't see how they would have done that easily as a private company, especially coming only a few years after its last capital raise.

As for debt, that hassle is worth it to access longer term bonds at favourable rates I think. Think Centum. I doubt bank loans would have been attractive for those projects.

There's so much money in the economy chasing few investment options that I would welcome large, profitable, well run businesses to list. Not the tiny GEMS type. Those can stay private.


Safaricom listed coz GoK wanted some cash. Safaricom was not a IPO but an Offer To Sell. No cash was raised for the firm but the proceeds went to GoK. Vodafone did not sell a single share and even acquired more.

ScanGroup's listing was strategic by Thakrar. He took it public and slowly got WPP to buy into ScanGroup while padding his nest egg. Very smart. He can retire with a few billions.

Access went public to raise money but also to allow the Somens to cash in. Then it went private again. CMC was public but now private.

Private firms have Rights Issues. We just don't hear of them as much. Look at Family Bank and Jamii Bora. Rights Issues are geared towards existing shareholders so it matters little whether the firm is listed or not.

Centum - Centum has and continues to borrow from banks.

Unless there is a compelling reason there is no need for a large, profitable and well-run business to list. Many of these firms will list when the founders and their families want out of the business or they want to cash in some of the shares.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cornelius Vanderbilt
#259 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2016 2:10:42 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/15/2015
Posts: 817
VituVingiSana wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
While uchumi struggles, Nakumatt revenues hit Sh 70 billion!!! It was 40 billion just 3 years ago.

Clearly, the market doesn't wait for you to sort out your problems.

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...M1KxMXEAA-b0T.jpg:large

https://twitter.com/coac...atus/748500424521617408

When will Nakumatt list and share the wealth?

Careful. They have a lot of debt. Suppliers are bitching about late/delayed payments by Nakumatt. It just happens there is no effective or substantial competitor so Nakumatt rules the roost.

The retail supermarket biashara is tough with lots of fixed costs. Even Warren Buffett got burned with Tesco (UK).


it must suck doing business with nakumatt.
alotoftalk
#260 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2016 5:56:12 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/27/2015
Posts: 138
Location: Harare
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Plimsoul wrote:
While uchumi struggles, Nakumatt revenues hit Sh 70 billion!!! It was 40 billion just 3 years ago.

Clearly, the market doesn't wait for you to sort out your problems.

https://pbs.twimg.com/me...M1KxMXEAA-b0T.jpg:large

https://twitter.com/coac...atus/748500424521617408

When will Nakumatt list and share the wealth?

Careful. They have a lot of debt. Suppliers are bitching about late/delayed payments by Nakumatt. It just happens there is no effective or substantial competitor so Nakumatt rules the roost.

The retail supermarket biashara is tough with lots of fixed costs. Even Warren Buffett got burned with Tesco (UK).

it must suck doing business with nakumatt.


Supplier Financing 101
Investment philosophy development in progress...
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