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When is the Next NSE Bus Leaving the Stage
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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National Bank.... African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Hello Joined: 6/12/2012 Posts: 8
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So, which stocks are undervalued and best to accumulate, whether short or Long term?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@hisah I am apalled that you can believe let alone read such a bias report..  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Hi-Teck wrote:So, which stocks are undervalued and best to accumulate, whether short or Long term? KCB, Kenya re, unga just to name a few... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:@hisah I am apalled that you can believe let alone read such a bias report.. You misunderstand my message. I was posting this as an irony. One day the media is praising NSE then next its trashing it with catchy headlines.
Like I stated before, when markets are praised, its time to pause or take profits.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote: Like I stated before, when markets are praised, its time to pause or take profits. I would be the greater fool if i sold my stocks at current valuations.. The next time stocks will be this cheap is after a 30-50 year super cycle of economic boom times passes.. So buy while stocks last!! I feel a vibe of positive Change arriving in Kenya... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182
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30-50 yrs cycle ni gani tena hizo?? i thought its 3-5 yr cycle?? the market is simply getting back to last yr level on a 3 yr chart we are still flat if not lower. LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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kyt wrote:30-50 yrs cycle ni gani tena hizo?? i thought its 3-5 yr cycle?? . Check on SUPER CYCLES!! If Kenya remains transforming into a middle income state there will be no room for recession.. 3-5 year cycles are common with developed markets!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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guru267 wrote:Hi-Teck wrote:So, which stocks are undervalued and best to accumulate, whether short or Long term? KCB, Kenya re, unga just to name a few... Simba set to print 25 before long! How nice  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m This thing will retrace to 3400-3500 if Q2 results disappoint.. But if they are good we will shoot above 4000... Thats why i have never understood the use of charts since they cannot predict variables like corporate earnings, economic growth, stock valuations, political environment, or investor emotions!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m This thing will retrace to 3400-3500 if Q2 results disappoint.. But if they are good we will shoot above 4000... Thats why i have never understood the use of charts since they cannot predict variables like corporate earnings, economic growth, stock valuations, political environment, or investor emotions!! @guru i would say that charts are very good predictors of investor emotion. From @hisah's cartoon, i would that investors are very bullish and a breakout above 4000 looks more likely. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:
@guru From @hisah's cartoon, i would say that investors are very bullish and a breakout above 4000 looks more likely.
@sparkly so you see a breakout above 4k according to the charts?? what if Q2 earnings disappoint?? What if the shilling suddenly starts spiraling lower again?? What if inflation starts ticking upwards?? What if there is electoral violence?? Will there still be a breakout above 4k?? Chart analysis cannot predict future events or trends and it ignores too many significant variables... "Ceteris paribus" does not apply in the real world! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500. Thats a 10yr chart with a large triangle. A break above 4000 will add more bullish strength while the opposite happens if a fall out of the lower part of the triangle happens. The lines convergence in Mar 2014 tho not shown on the chart.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500. Thats a 10yr chart with a large triangle. A break above 4000 will add more bullish strength while the opposite happens if a fall out of the lower part of the triangle happens. The lines convergence in Mar 2014 tho not shown on the chart. And yet in March 2014 we will be headed towards 6,000 on the NSE 20.. Charts can mislead! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500. Thats a 10yr chart with a large triangle. A break above 4000 will add more bullish strength while the opposite happens if a fall out of the lower part of the triangle happens. The lines convergence in Mar 2014 tho not shown on the chart. And yet in March 2014 we will be headed towards 6,000 on the NSE 20.. Charts can mislead! www.investopedia.com/ter...iangle.asp#axzz20h6yuQPlThat 10yr chart is pending a breakout. Bullish or bearish breakout will be for a long period, least 5yrs. Likely outcome is a bullish breakout  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2007 Posts: 359
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hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500. Thats a 10yr chart with a large triangle. A break above 4000 will add more bullish strength while the opposite happens if a fall out of the lower part of the triangle happens. The lines convergence in Mar 2014 tho not shown on the chart. And yet in March 2014 we will be headed towards 6,000 on the NSE 20.. Charts can mislead! www.investopedia.com/ter...iangle.asp#axzz20h6yuQPlThat 10yr chart is pending a breakout. Bullish or bearish breakout will be for a long period, least 5yrs. Likely outcome is a bullish breakout Hopefully I will get a favourable re-entry chance. As it were, I have locked in fab gains. Now just sitting, watching, hoping and timing; with the patience of a hunter. And wanting to believe we are few doing this.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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guru267 wrote:sparkly wrote:
@guru From @hisah's cartoon, i would say that investors are very bullish and a breakout above 4000 looks more likely.
@sparkly so you see a breakout above 4k according to the charts?? what if Q2 earnings disappoint?? What if the shilling suddenly starts spiraling lower again?? What if inflation starts ticking upwards?? What if there is electoral violence?? Will there still be a breakout above 4k?? Chart analysis cannot predict future events or trends and it ignores too many significant variables... "Ceteris paribus" does not apply in the real world! @Guru better shut out the macro analysis when dealing with cartoons. This particular cartoon shows a very convincing case for a breakout above 4k. Breakouts typically occur 2/3 of the way to the convergence. The fundamentals on most stocks are also looking strong. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:http://www.freeimagehosting.net/gp51m nice cartoon. interpretation? what i can see is the two lines meet at 3,500. Thats a 10yr chart with a large triangle. A break above 4000 will add more bullish strength while the opposite happens if a fall out of the lower part of the triangle happens. The lines convergence in Mar 2014 tho not shown on the chart. @hisah. A triangle has 5 waves and from your image my interpretation is that NSE should push slightly beyond 4000 points completing wave E(the fifth wave) b4 plunging downward. This to me is consistent with the status of the global economy which is in the initial stages of deflation whose bottom is 2016. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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When is the Next NSE Bus Leaving the Stage
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