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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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mwekez@ji
#241 Posted : Sunday, September 30, 2012 8:34:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
The 40% is clearly incorrect. It is best you apply professional skepticism when putting up your posts to avoid misleading many.


That is why i said "apparently"... I also said that i stand to be corrected!!


huh! .... N'way, we let it go!
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Aguytrying
#242 Posted : Sunday, September 30, 2012 8:49:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
The 40% is clearly incorrect. It is best you apply professional skepticism when putting up your posts to avoid misleading many.


That is why i said "apparently"... I also said that i stand to be corrected!!


@guru. check out the HFCK coporate note info memorandum(availableat wazua google groups-25th sep). They have included recent mortgage market share there
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Richie rich
#243 Posted : Sunday, September 30, 2012 9:46:55 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/29/2012
Posts: 79
Aguytrying wrote:
sparkly wrote:
PKoli wrote:
maligumu wrote:
the deal wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
After months of planning, i have finally put my money where my mouth is and taken the plunge on HFCK (with both feet) today. Im very excited i am finally in.

Karibu Diamond, karibu 0.25 member


Looks like i entered alongside the big boys

You have made the right decison I have a TP of Ksh20 on the stock!


Welcome some of us are already seated, hope you will get a permanent seat in the diamond .


Many of you were on the sidelines. Karibu


@aguy karibu, we are ready to go


asanteni wakubwa

It feels good to here from you guys am also in this thing.
The God of the day is still God in the night.
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youcan'tstopusnow
#244 Posted : Sunday, September 30, 2012 9:58:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Housing Finance sets
aside Sh1.4bn to build
own units
http://www.businessdaily...2/-/59736w/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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mwekez@ji
#245 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 10:09:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Housing Finance sets
aside Sh1.4bn to build
own units
http://www.businessdailyafrica....12/-/59736w/-/index.html


#one stop mortgage shop #to profit from the margin accruing from the different steps in the housing supply chain
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mwekez@ji
#246 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 10:11:28 AM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
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Genghis Capital has a BUY recomendation of HFCK with a 12 months target price of KES 27 *Diamond* *Diamond* *Diamond*
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ProverB
#247 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 10:28:15 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mwekez@ji wrote:
Genghis Capital has a BUY recomendation of HFCK with a 12 months target price of KES 27 *Diamond* *Diamond* *Diamond*


All other factors remaining constant.
Pleas note..over past 52 weeks HFCK has been one of worst performers in market despite healthy fundamentals.. KES 27 is only possible of investors believe so and act on it.

One reason it will go up is a dividend yield higher than 6%...But again..the higher the price edges..the lower the yield...meaning long before the KES27 price range...income investors..and those averse to risk..will drop it from "to buy" list...as well as those who boarded earlier probably alighting..

Is it a value stock? Probably..is it a momentum stock? definitely..just spark greed in retailers and it will soar..to be slaughtered later..but in this market...income stocks seem to be safer options...with Dividend yield > 8%

* A share u hold is only worth in price what another person is willing to pay for it...regardless of their intellect or understanding of the fundamentals. *
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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sparkly
#248 Posted : Monday, October 01, 2012 10:41:11 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Main worry is the mismatch between the terms of the assets and the liabilities.

In 2011 the assets, including mortgages due within 5 years was 10B while assets due after 5 years were 20B. The liabilities payable within 5 years on the other hand were 17B and liabilities payable after 5 years were 10B. There would be a liquidity crisis if the big depositors decided to the call on their funds. The company must also adjust mortgage rates if there is an adverse movement in short term interest rates.

Thankfully this is being addressed by the MTN on offer.

The other issue is the loss of market share, though this is offset by expansion of market size.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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guru267
#249 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 8:47:40 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
This thing looks more like a diamond each day! i might just decide to take the plunge below 15bob..

www.businessdailyafrica....6/-/k91f3pz/-/index.html
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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StatMeister
#250 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 9:12:43 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
sparkly wrote:
Main worry is the mismatch between the terms of the assets and the liabilities.

In 2011 the assets, including mortgages due within 5 years was 10B while assets due after 5 years were 20B. The liabilities payable within 5 years on the other hand were 17B and liabilities payable after 5 years were 10B. There would be a liquidity crisis if the big depositors decided to the call on their funds. The company must also adjust mortgage rates if there is an adverse movement in short term interest rates.

Thankfully this is being addressed by the MTN on offer.

The other issue is the loss of market share, though this is offset by expansion of market size.


With interest rates easing, and with Kenyans now more aware of the interest rate games, expect some re-alignment in the liability books (of all banks)
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Aguytrying
#251 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 9:26:31 AM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
guru267 wrote:
This thing looks more like a diamond each day! i might just decide to take the plunge below 15bob..

www.businessdailyafrica....6/-/k91f3pz/-/index.html


If you look at the growth from 2007-2011 strategic plan, its almost a 10 times increase in PBT/PAT and that was the recovery(annual report 2011).

They are terming the new strategic plan 2012-2016 the growth phase, so you can imagine what profits this business will be churning if they achieve their targets and the CEO is top notch.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mlennyma
#252 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 9:58:19 AM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
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Location: nairobi
Supply diminishing demand piling up.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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mwekez@ji
#253 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 1:54:08 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@Proverb, is HFCK a

a)Value stock – Yes – Check P/E, P/B, Fundies
b)Dividend stock – Yes – Dividend Yield >10%
c)Momentum stock – Its building and bulls will make money

@Sparkley, Banks have learnt to live with Asset Liability mismatch. Check around.

This is a diamond! #BUY
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the deal
#254 Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 9:28:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
HF is projecting a PAT of Ksh708mn or a HEPS of Ksh3.07 for FY 2012 http://www.housing.co.ke...stories/supplemental.PDF
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sparkly
#255 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 10:09:36 AM
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Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
@Proverb, is HFCK a

a)Value stock – Yes – Check P/E, P/B, Fundies
b)Dividend stock – Yes – Dividend Yield >10%
c)Momentum stock – Its building and bulls will make money

@Sparkley, Banks have learnt to live with Asset Liability mismatch. Check around.

This is a diamond! #BUY

@Mwekez@ji i am already in, in fact am liquidating some positions to get more of the diamond. For me its a plus that they are addressing the asset/liability mismatch.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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guru267
#256 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 1:33:35 PM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
in fact am liquidating some positions to get more of the diamond. .


Stop copying me!!
Shame on you
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Aguytrying
#257 Posted : Saturday, October 06, 2012 2:25:03 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
in fact am liquidating some positions to get more of the diamond. .


Stop copying me!!
Shame on you


there's room for everyone smile , supply nowadays is good. but bottom fishing is very TRICKY at the moment.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mlennyma
#258 Posted : Monday, October 08, 2012 6:58:30 PM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
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Location: nairobi
Up slowly but sure on subdued supply
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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mlennyma
#259 Posted : Monday, October 08, 2012 7:09:30 PM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
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Location: nairobi
It will soon be at par with equity share
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Mainat
#260 Posted : Monday, October 08, 2012 7:23:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Mlennyma -HFCK's volume over the last 5 or so days is the highest its been for the last 6 months http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HFCL:KN/chart.

It seems investors are now pricing away the fear of a dilutive rights issue.
I am realistically seeing an Ksh18 by December 12 assuming Ksh700m for the FY2012.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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