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KQ is now trading at 13.50 - below rights issue
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sentinel prime
#121 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 10:04:33 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/12/2012
Posts: 92
I am a bit behind on the NSE nowadays, there was a time I was as sharp as a razor ....

the trick is to wait to see whether it'll go below 10...then wait till it crosses above 10 and buy with 1/4 intended position size....add more on like a moron if it goes higher and adjust upwards your mental stop loss...if it instead goes lower sell your first lot immediately ....this is the best method handed down by the trading gods...never cost average, never.....and you'll be laughing at buy and holders.

disclaimer :I currently hold no positions in the NSE the crappy executions,3 days settlement and larger than life commissions convinced me to take my game elsewhere.
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VituVingiSana
#122 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 10:52:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
VWAP 10.85/-

At this sub 11/- level KQ is technically oversold, but the risk/reward ratio of catching this falling knife is too skewed towards burning fingers.
Are you sure? I expect a 2H loss:

- Fired staff back on the payroll
- Legals fees
- Loss of focus
- High fuel prices
- Increased capacity but low loads
- Elections scare away tourists (potential violence)

The results will be released May/June 2013. I expect sub-10.

My conclusion was it's too risky even if it's technically oversold. It'll bounce due to selling fatigue, but fundamentals point south for now until there's a drastic change of events towards recovery. I expect capitulation to occur post results in 2013, which could push it sub 10/- for a while. I still foresee a special AGM soon and it'll be action-packed.
Why an EGM?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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hisah
#123 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 11:58:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
VWAP 10.85/-

At this sub 11/- level KQ is technically oversold, but the risk/reward ratio of catching this falling knife is too skewed towards burning fingers.
Are you sure? I expect a 2H loss:

- Fired staff back on the payroll
- Legals fees
- Loss of focus
- High fuel prices
- Increased capacity but low loads
- Elections scare away tourists (potential violence)

The results will be released May/June 2013. I expect sub-10.

My conclusion was it's too risky even if it's technically oversold. It'll bounce due to selling fatigue, but fundamentals point south for now until there's a drastic change of events towards recovery. I expect capitulation to occur post results in 2013, which could push it sub 10/- for a while. I still foresee a special AGM soon and it'll be action-packed.
Why an EGM?

Just a hunch from the way the pandora's box is throwing spanners.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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VituVingiSana
#124 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 12:31:33 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
@hisah A new MD/CEO doesn't require an EGM. If KQ needs new cash, then yes but who is gonna entertain a Rights Issue today? They shot themselves in the foot with the last one.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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ProverB
#125 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 1:36:27 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Potential of cash coming into KQ is low..however..kq is not leaking cash...it is hemorrhaging!!!!

KQ needs to chill out in capital injection plans and stop rushing into more debt (acquiring planes)...just stop awhile..and focus on operational inefficiencies.. Audit staff, and optimise on working capital..

what's the worse that can happen?

1st half was bad...only an idiot expects awesome results for this and the next 2 years or so... so TN should quit trying prove things are ok...things are bad...so stop everything and rethink!!

shelve dreams for now and reconstruct operations of KQ.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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murchr
#126 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 3:57:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
If they shelve those dreams they are done. They cant compete with rented planes which are guzzlers. This pain killer is a must.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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ProverB
#127 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 4:06:05 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
murchr wrote:
If they shelve those dreams they are done. They cant compete with rented planes which are guzzlers. This pain killer is a must.


If your boat is sinking...you don't paddle faster.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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murchr
#128 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 4:29:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
ProverB wrote:
murchr wrote:
If they shelve those dreams they are done. They cant compete with rented planes which are guzzlers. This pain killer is a must.


If your boat is sinking...you don't paddle faster.


If u dont peddle then u can as well wait and sink. They have to acquire their own planes otherwise for how long shall they be working for others. They have to take the bitter pill to get well.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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ProverB
#129 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 4:49:28 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
murchr wrote:
If u dont peddle then u can as well wait and sink. They have to acquire their own planes otherwise for how long shall they be working for others. They have to take the bitter pill to get well.


The thing is...KQ uses too much money to get just one additional shilling of revenue

...operational costs are too huge..and increasing...plug in those operational inefficiencies and you have better footing to handle financial costs such as debt on planes, hire costs etc..

It's awesome to acquire planes..but clean out your operational systems first. Thus..plug the hole in your boat..or find a way to slow the water sipping in rather than hurriedly paddle after a dream.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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murchr
#130 Posted : Tuesday, December 11, 2012 5:52:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
ProverB wrote:
murchr wrote:
If u dont peddle then u can as well wait and sink. They have to acquire their own planes otherwise for how long shall they be working for others. They have to take the bitter pill to get well.


The thing is...KQ uses too much money to get just one additional shilling of revenue

...operational costs are too huge..and increasing...plug in those operational inefficiencies and you have better footing to handle financial costs such as debt on planes, hire costs etc..

It's awesome to acquire planes..but clean out your operational systems first. Thus..plug the hole in your boat..or find a way to slow the water sipping in rather than hurriedly paddle after a dream.


Too much money is relative. They have to adapt with the changing times or they are rendered redundant or useless.

Think about it. Their passenger no.s in Africa Asia and M/E are growing but flat on Europe up on cargo. Can someone say KQ is in bad business?

What has failed KQ is Boeing, these planes were supposed to have been delivered by now. And its not KQ alone, but the whole aviation industry. Some like Quantas cancelled their order of 35 planes. How hey will compete with Emirates will be a story for another day.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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