Downside target levels for the NSE index.
Short term 3600 - 3700 (3wks - 6wks)
Mid term 3200 - 3400 (2mths - 5mths)
Long term 2800 - 3000 (6mths onwards).
Since the index is currently oversold, rebound target is 3800 - 3900 short term also likely to be supported by earnings reports esp from banks. The index fell thru this supportl (3900) like a knife, this is now solid resistance with a lot of sellers trapped. At this rebound level expect selling. If indeed the bounce hits 4000 (unlikely), sellers pressure will increase. Then the index slide aiming the bounce floor down to 3400 ensues.
At 3200 - 3400, the rebound aims 3600 -3700 level.
If the elliot wave count (5 down) is correct, sellers fatigue will most likely stop at 2700 - 2800 levels. Look for large volumes below 3000 from smart money. You'll notice with ease since at this level small daily volumes will be moving the market in a sickly fashion.
This is just my view on the current bear setup. Smart may decide to create a floor now or lower. But my gut feeling is from 3000 down, PPT (plunge protection team) will step in. ATS will be 'failing' at times
Or at times trading ends early (suspended) or trading starts late. PPT masters should know of a term called circuit breakers (CB). They should get the ATS vendors to implement this rather than ATS 'failing'
Therefore from 3000 below expect the down pressure to lessen as the index flattens ready for a large bounce from all the extreme selling since 4400 broke down. KE and EA fundamental are rosier than the 1st world by far, so this is a generous buying opportunity tho in small doses for those solid bluechips which deliver dividends.
When the bull reversal starts, I will start another thread on the bull targets. As @youcant once said, I track the index.
Why no index trading?