Safaricom resisting bear run

Your chart is showing a complete impulse wave on the NSE All share index. The start of the corrective wave is also showing on the chart.

On my core holdings:

KenRe - Mwarania is back!
Unga - Offer fails (70% vs a minimum of 75%)
I&M - Lack-luster performance of the share price like the market. Awaiting 1H 2018 results
KK - 1H 2018 PAT expected to be very good but the proposed VAT on fuel is worrisome. 2H will likely be tougher.


Others:
ARM - Bought at 3.70 and facing resistance about 4.70 but we wait for CDC's announcement and 1H results
Centum - Lots of headwinds. Some plans for Vipingo revealed. Price is down to 34.
TPSEA - Down to 28. Expansion works on Nairobi Serena are ongoing but it is a long-term and cash intensive project.
C&G - The market is tough. The share price has collapsed. They can sell some properties to get some cash and realize value. Cummins is now a JV.
FTGH - Shida in a cash-poor environment when customers are broke.
Equity - Renamed the DRC business. Mary Wamae now the CEO of the foreign subsidiaries. Polycarp Igathe is the new COO. Profits should be great for 1H.
Tea - Should do well. Great crop but lower prices. We wait for results.

#BoraUhai!

Smart money testing stocks one toe at a time.

1. @VVS our NSE is very unpredictable. In fact I don't have much faith in Buy and Hold strategy anymore. It seems safer to trade seasonal and rumour based trends, take profits and move on.

2. Fundamentally good stocks stay depressed for too long. More value is unlocked by takeovers and attempted takeovers rather than open market action e.g. Rea Vipingo, Access, Unilever, Carbacid, Stanbic, KK, Express, Unga, City Trust etc. Long frustrating wait for minority shareholders.

3. Few true Blue Chips. There is always something around the corner to strangle the prospects of good companies e.g. price/ tariff regulation for banks, Oil marketers, telecomms... impudent loans by public utilities... political interference/ theft on parastatals like KQ, Uchumi, Mumias... Arbitrary and excessive taxation on alcohol, cigarettes and airtime... toxic politics for tourism and services... tenderprenuerism in Oil Marketing and Digital broadcasting.

4. Weak regulatory structure allowing too much cooking of books. You can't tell if you have a gem or a monkey e.g. ADSS, Home Afrika, Eveready, Sameer allowed to con Wanjiku with pie in the sky projections.

5. Out of the 80 or so companies that listed on the NSE, less than 10 have been worthy of being held for more than 10 years. Safaricom, BAT, Jubilee, Equity, Kakuzi somehow beat the odds to grow in the longterm.