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Kenya Economy Watch
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lochaz-index
#1231 Posted : Tuesday, December 06, 2016 6:09:41 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Ericsson wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Treasury-cuts-development-spending-by-Sh213-5bn/539546-3476176-10xcr2hz/index.html

President Elect Donald Trump effect.
Dollar strengthening globally
US interest rates to rise faster than expected
Stocks are at 9 year high
Bond yields are rising due to anticipated economic stimulus by Trump




Yields 'bottomed out' around June of this year when there was about $13 trillion worth of bonds in negative territory. They have been rising ever since. That figure now stands at about $9.7 trillion.

USTs were among the last batch to change trend though the bunds are still not budging. Interest rates were bound to move up whether Trump won or lost. The fact that some of his proposed policies fit into the market script is but a happy coincidence. A catalyst it sure is but the cause? Absolutely not.

A trend shift was on the cards and KE will not be left behind.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Ericsson
#1232 Posted : Sunday, December 11, 2016 9:12:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
In the supplementary budget Rotich says budget for SGR has been cut by sh.43.5bn
Budget ya ministry of energy imekuwa halved to sh.60.25bn from 117bn
State department of petroleum budget has been reduced by 1.2bn
Allocation for geothermal development will go down to sh.10.5bn from 21.9bn
Number of new wells to be drilled reduced to 5 from 10
KETRACO budget for transmission and distribution has been cut to sh.47.76bn from 93.45bn
Rural electrification programme slashed to 13bn from 25bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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wukan
#1233 Posted : Monday, December 12, 2016 7:12:25 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,653
Ericsson wrote:
In the supplementary budget Rotich says budget for SGR has been cut by sh.43.5bn
Budget ya ministry of energy imekuwa halved to sh.60.25bn from 117bn
State department of petroleum budget has been reduced by 1.2bn
Allocation for geothermal development will go down to sh.10.5bn from 21.9bn
Number of new wells to be drilled reduced to 5 from 10
KETRACO budget for transmission and distribution has been cut to sh.47.76bn from 93.45bn
Rural electrification programme slashed to 13bn from 25bn


Too little too late. If they had done this kind of budget cuts 2 years back, private sector would not be in recession. Tax and spend has not worked out very well.
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sparkly
#1234 Posted : Monday, December 12, 2016 9:08:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Ericsson wrote:
In the supplementary budget Rotich says budget for SGR has been cut by sh.43.5bn
Budget ya ministry of energy imekuwa halved to sh.60.25bn from 117bn
State department of petroleum budget has been reduced by 1.2bn
Allocation for geothermal development will go down to sh.10.5bn from 21.9bn
Number of new wells to be drilled reduced to 5 from 10
KETRACO budget for transmission and distribution has been cut to sh.47.76bn from 93.45bn
Rural electrification programme slashed to 13bn from 25bn


Money needed to service debts.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Ericsson
#1235 Posted : Monday, December 12, 2016 10:59:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Brent crude up 5% on oil production cuts to $56.75
Analysts project oil prices could close the year at $65
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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muandiwambeu
#1236 Posted : Monday, December 12, 2016 1:15:33 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
sparkly wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
In the supplementary budget Rotich says budget for SGR has been cut by sh.43.5bn
Budget ya ministry of energy imekuwa halved to sh.60.25bn from 117bn
State department of petroleum budget has been reduced by 1.2bn
Allocation for geothermal development will go down to sh.10.5bn from 21.9bn
Number of new wells to be drilled reduced to 5 from 10
KETRACO budget for transmission and distribution has been cut to sh.47.76bn from 93.45bn
Rural electrification programme slashed to 13bn from 25bn


Money needed to service debts.

And so you answer a question have been struggling with, or the moni goes to compaign budget. Just thinking around. Will campaign moni changes the metrics of economy positively?
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, December 12, 2016 1:17 PM | Reason: Not specified
alutacontinua
#1237 Posted : Monday, December 12, 2016 1:31:26 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Ericsson wrote:
Brent crude up 5% on oil production cuts to $56.75
Analysts project oil prices could close the year at $65


Strong USD and Higher Oil Prices will see an uptick inflation. It will be interesting to see how CBK reacts to prevent slide of Ksh.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, December 12, 2016 5:07 PM | Reason: Not specified
Ericsson
#1238 Posted : Monday, December 12, 2016 1:46:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Kenya's budget in 2016 was bigger than Nigeria '.
How????
Nigeria budget was $20bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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muandiwambeu
#1239 Posted : Monday, December 12, 2016 5:03:32 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
alutacontinua wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Brent crude up 5% on oil production cuts to $56.75
Analysts project oil prices could close the year at $65


Strong USD and a higher Oil Prices will see and uptick inflation. It will be interesting to see how CBK reacts to prevent slide of Ksh.

That's a thriller in the making. And you will have a horror if it crosses $70. Petrol and dollar courting. Petrodolla unions looking for a red rose to consumate the partnership.
Somebody must stop this.
Caveat. Oil flows in Kenya by end of 2017. Am I dreaming hard or its true?d'oh! Sad Pray
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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lochaz-index
#1240 Posted : Thursday, December 15, 2016 12:09:45 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Total KE debt now stands at 3.7T that puts it at about 56% of the rebased GDP. Fiscal funding is already proving problematic as exemplified by supplementary budget cuts especially for development expenditure.

KRA revenue target is 1.5T with about 600b or 40% of it expected to service debt in 2017/2018. In my opinion, KRA will struggle to beat this year's 1.3T revenue. That means we could very well use more than 50% of our revenues to service debt.
http://www.businessdaily...6440-cl9kj8z/index.html

The govt is still mulling over where to source external funds(euro bond etc) seeing as domestic borrowing has regularly exceeded the proposed ceilings. One major problem to this plan is that any substantial KES weakness will blow up both our debt burden and our debt service ratio. This is even before any more external borrowing is sourced for current budgetary support.

Adding on to that pile of misery is that global and local interest rates are bound to rise and rise astronomically at that. Treasury has a tough decision to make and they had better do it fast. At 70% debt to GDP ratio and a greater than 50% debt service ratio in the face of dwindling revenues, KE economy will be in excruciating pain. This horror show could play out as soon as next year.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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