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Realities of Forex Investment
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2401 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 5:53:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mchambuzi wrote:
Sitting on oil shorts, hoping there will be no major disruptions, oil supply looks bullish. Eurusd panned out well post ECB conference smile...

soo true.
Bears still ruling on the EUR/USD pair.
Tomorrow looks big on fundies aka funniessmile what with nonfarm payrolls,Dec unemployment for both US and CA. RSIs,hammers and the like wont matter much!
@SufficientlyP
mchambuzi
#2402 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 7:21:06 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mchambuzi wrote:
Sitting on oil shorts, hoping there will be no major disruptions, oil supply looks bullish. Eurusd panned out well post ECB conference smile...

soo true.
Bears still ruling on the EUR/USD pair.
Tomorrow looks big on fundies aka funniessmile what with nonfarm payrolls,Dec unemployment for both US and CA. RSIs,hammers and the like wont matter much!


Very true smile ... But I think market is anticipating a good figure considering the last 3 figures. Hopefully will provide a cheap buy entry on gold. Oil is gone, break of 91.74 and its a cliff from there. Technically oil had a break retest set-up on the Daily TL, beautiful on the charts. Will tighten stops ahead of the release just in case.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2403 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 9:12:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mchambuzi wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mchambuzi wrote:
Sitting on oil shorts, hoping there will be no major disruptions, oil supply looks bullish. Eurusd panned out well post ECB conference smile...

soo true.
Bears still ruling on the EUR/USD pair.
Tomorrow looks big on fundies aka funniessmile what with nonfarm payrolls,Dec unemployment for both US and CA. RSIs,hammers and the like wont matter much!


Very true smile ... But I think market is anticipating a good figure considering the last 3 figures. Hopefully will provide a cheap buy entry on gold. Oil is gone, break of 91.74 and its a cliff from there. Technically oil had a break retest set-up on the Daily TL, beautiful on the charts. Will tighten stops ahead of the release just in case.

Bearish on Euro, Gold and oil in the short run. I plan to short the EUR/USD pair tomorrow during the European session and close positions an hour or so to the release. Will trade the NFPs as well!
@SufficientlyP
mchambuzi
#2404 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 10:15:23 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
There will re balancing buying at the comex close next 3 days. Trying to avoid getting into bearish positions atm. I will watch pre and post NFP for buying opportunity
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
mchambuzi
#2405 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 10:47:48 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mchambuzi wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mchambuzi wrote:
Sitting on oil shorts, hoping there will be no major disruptions, oil supply looks bullish. Eurusd panned out well post ECB conference smile...

soo true.
Bears still ruling on the EUR/USD pair.
Tomorrow looks big on fundies aka funniessmile what with nonfarm payrolls,Dec unemployment for both US and CA. RSIs,hammers and the like wont matter much!


Very true smile ... But I think market is anticipating a good figure considering the last 3 figures. Hopefully will provide a cheap buy entry on gold. Oil is gone, break of 91.74 and its a cliff from there. Technically oil had a break retest set-up on the Daily TL, beautiful on the charts. Will tighten stops ahead of the release just in case.

Bearish on Euro, Gold and oil in the short run. I plan to short the EUR/USD pair tomorrow during the European session and close positions an hour or so to the release. Will trade the NFPs as well!


Have already exited my oil intra-day position. Seems support at 91.30 is pretty solid.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2406 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 11:19:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Great idea right there @mchambuzi.
@SufficientlyP
mchambuzi
#2407 Posted : Friday, January 10, 2014 10:07:55 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Going into NFP with minimal exposure, the only trade that I have left slightly exposed in my NZDUSD short. Will wait and see how it pans out post or pre-NFP and I hope I can get a better bargain on gold. Looking to buy into a nice dip or breakout to the upside.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2408 Posted : Friday, January 10, 2014 10:40:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Got into a short intra day position on EUR/USD at 1.3615 0700GMT TP level pre NFP release 1.3585. SL 3630
Cant wait for closure before the whole NFP madness beginssmile ,oh yes,and the Eurozone GDP percentage in 2hours time.Will adjust the TP level if need be and make use of the trailing loss so as not to be caught up!
@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2409 Posted : Friday, January 10, 2014 11:33:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Got into a short intra day position on EUR/USD at 1.3615 0700GMT TP level pre NFP release 1.3585. SL 3630
Cant wait for closure before the whole NFP madness beginssmile ,oh yes,and the Eurozone GDP percentage in 2hours time.Will adjust the TP level if need be and make use of the trailing loss so as not to be caught up!

Closed position at 1.3605 locking in 10pips. Might as well start my weekendsmile
@SufficientlyP
mchambuzi
#2410 Posted : Friday, January 10, 2014 2:40:55 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Have closed half of my position in nzdusd with 55pips. Had sold heavy. Have moved my stop to Break even ahead of the NFP, let it roll on smile... AUDNZD looks pretty bullish as well
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
mchambuzi
#2411 Posted : Sunday, January 12, 2014 2:00:41 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Saw Lagarde on CNBC saying that they will be looking for an alternative safe haven from gold on Friday, but the resilient gold bulls pushed on due to rebalancing, that should continue for two more days before we start looking for possibly bearish opportunities smile
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
mchambuzi
#2412 Posted : Tuesday, January 14, 2014 10:05:54 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Sold gold 1246 stoploss 1255. First tp 1235.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
hisah
#2413 Posted : Saturday, January 18, 2014 1:56:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Getting close...

Metals, Currency Rigging Is Worse Than Libor, Bafin Says - http://www.bloomberg.com...afin-s-koenig-says.html

Quote:
Germany’s top financial regulator said possible manipulation of currency rates and prices for precious metals is worse than the Libor-rigging scandal, which has already led to fines of about $6 billion.

The allegations about the currency and precious metals markets are “particularly serious because such reference values are based -- unlike Libor and Euribor -- typically on transactions in liquid markets and not on estimates of the banks,” Elke Koenig, the president of Bonn-based Bafin, said in a speech in Frankfurt yesterday.



Deutsche quits gold price-setting as regulators investigate fix - http://www.reuters.com/a...x-idUSL5N0KR19G20140117

Quote:
Deutsche Bank will withdraw from gold and silver benchmark price setting, it said on Friday, as European regulators investigate suspected manipulation of precious metals prices by banks.

Deutsche is one of five banks involved in the twice-daily gold fix for global price setting and said it was quitting the process after withdrawing from the bulk of its commodities business.

On Wednesday, global investigations into alleged currency market manipulation intensified as U.S. regulators descended on Citigroup's London offices and Deutsche suspended several traders in New York, sources told Reuters.

A source close to Deutsche said on Friday it was seeking to sell its gold and silver fixing seats to another member of the London Bullion Market Association.

"The more worrying point is that, if you don't have the fixing, what do you have? There's a lot of contractual business done on the gold fix, and if you've got no basis for where the price is, someone is going to lose out."

Gold fixing happens by teleconference with four other banks: Bank of Nova Scotia-ScotiaMocatta, Barclays Bank Plc , HSBC Bank USA, NA and Société Générale, all of which declined immediate comment on the Deutsche move.


Markets hate confessions. A debasement is coming like a thief in the night... Don't get suckered!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mchambuzi
#2414 Posted : Monday, January 20, 2014 1:30:29 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
hisah wrote:
Getting close...

Metals, Currency Rigging Is Worse Than Libor, Bafin Says - http://www.bloomberg.com...afin-s-koenig-says.html

Quote:
Germany’s top financial regulator said possible manipulation of currency rates and prices for precious metals is worse than the Libor-rigging scandal, which has already led to fines of about $6 billion.

The allegations about the currency and precious metals markets are “particularly serious because such reference values are based -- unlike Libor and Euribor -- typically on transactions in liquid markets and not on estimates of the banks,” Elke Koenig, the president of Bonn-based Bafin, said in a speech in Frankfurt yesterday.


Every instrument is manipulated. Its just that for most its hard to prove because of the sophisticated way that they do it. Its not that hard to see it in gold. There was talk last week that paper gold now exceeds physical gold value.

Deutsche quits gold price-setting as regulators investigate fix - http://www.reuters.com/a...x-idUSL5N0KR19G20140117

Quote:
Deutsche Bank will withdraw from gold and silver benchmark price setting, it said on Friday, as European regulators investigate suspected manipulation of precious metals prices by banks.

Deutsche is one of five banks involved in the twice-daily gold fix for global price setting and said it was quitting the process after withdrawing from the bulk of its commodities business.

On Wednesday, global investigations into alleged currency market manipulation intensified as U.S. regulators descended on Citigroup's London offices and Deutsche suspended several traders in New York, sources told Reuters.

A source close to Deutsche said on Friday it was seeking to sell its gold and silver fixing seats to another member of the London Bullion Market Association.

"The more worrying point is that, if you don't have the fixing, what do you have? There's a lot of contractual business done on the gold fix, and if you've got no basis for where the price is, someone is going to lose out."

Gold fixing happens by teleconference with four other banks: Bank of Nova Scotia-ScotiaMocatta, Barclays Bank Plc , HSBC Bank USA, NA and Société Générale, all of which declined immediate comment on the Deutsche move.


Markets hate confessions. A debasement is coming like a thief in the night... Don't get suckered!

On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
mchambuzi
#2415 Posted : Monday, January 20, 2014 2:34:54 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
AUDUSD looks pretty much headed for 8500. Short-term pullback in play.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
hisah
#2416 Posted : Saturday, January 25, 2014 6:27:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Bonds market still flashing. Gold market now flashing...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mchambuzi
#2417 Posted : Saturday, January 25, 2014 8:36:09 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
This audusd downwards locomotive looks like it will be fueled a lot by the Chinese possible credit crisis and stocks downturn. Gold is just clearing short positions, it was too crowded.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
alutacontinua
#2418 Posted : Monday, January 27, 2014 1:34:15 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Beginning of the week and USDJPY has already gapped lower. China's pending default and Capital flight from emerging markets seems to be the main driver. Institutional firms still yet to join the party.....

www.reuters.com/article/...ng-idUSBREA0N11D20140124

@hisah the risk aversion on Friday was definately a sight to watch. Interesting consolidation in silver since the middle of December.......Gold finding support around $1180.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
alutacontinua
#2419 Posted : Monday, January 27, 2014 8:23:15 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Heres another interesting take on whats driving the emerging market flows:

Societe Generale - This correction differs from your run of the mill. It was clear some EM reduction was already on the way a few days before the correction turned vicious and little of it showed classic contagion. The size of the EM pressure was of such a large size in more exotic destination (e.g. ARS) that some very large funds or banks must have been involved, otherwise reserve managers would have smoothed the pressure.
So who are the behemoth of such large scale re-allocation of capital. The WSJ reports a major Asian equity fund was unwound by its SWF backer last week. This is a decent clue. Ahead of Fed tightening, SWFs may be scaling down their hedge fund, equity and alternative investments holdings to concentrate into short dated government bonds (reserve managers run the short end). That is presumably very short dated UST and European bonds.
The price dynamics and ECB promising to fight deflation means that core and soft core European bonds are promising alternatives to equities. This suggests that the EUR should stay strong relative to its satellite currencies (smaller reserves will be squeezed for some USD liquidity).
While the Fed is widely expected to accelerate the pace of tightening, the adjustment in positions changes very little. USDJPY is likely to base and rebound quickly in the next 24h as VaR risk reduction runs its course. USDCAD even with such large long positioning barely budged in the past few days. That suggests the trend up is very much intact, the BoC there is clearly your friend”
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
mnunuzi
#2420 Posted : Tuesday, January 28, 2014 8:40:33 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
Sold eurusd at 1.3678. took fresh short in audusd at .8795. Considering going long usdchf and short on xauusd, hunting around for an entry
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