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Kengen HY 2015 results PAT up 400%
VituVingiSana
#111 Posted : Tuesday, October 06, 2015 7:34:26 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
Muthawamunene wrote:



We import power FROM Uganda. We export power TO Uganda.

This merry-go-round is mind boggling to me. If a country has the need to import power, why does it export it?

Anywho, its good news.

We don't import power from because of power shortage. It is due to infrastructure issues. Some areas are not connected to the National Grid and it is easier and cheaper at the moment to have then served by power from neighbouring countries. The same way you buy Tuzo and Daima in Nairobbery yet you have grade cows back in Shagz!!!

That is a great example. Your have cows in shagz producing quality 'thick' milk yet you buy watered down Daima & Tuzo in Nairobi.

Brookside has the 'distribution' channels to buy YOUR raw milk in Molo at 40/- per liter then process, remove the fat & cream, pack and send it to Nakumatt where you buy it at 80/- per liter. Of course, the fat/cream is converted to butter which you buy kando too.

You could have someone shuttle 10 liters to your house daily from Molo but that doesn't make financial sense.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#112 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 1:51:50 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
The recent blackout in Nairobi is a great lesson on why PRODUCTION can exceed CONSUMPTION when the TRANSMISSION and DISTRIBUTION are not up to par.

http://www.businessdaily...4/-/90cjoh/-/index.html

Massive under-investment spanning decades [since the Moi Error] means Kenya's grid is weak and cannot support increased production/generation of power that needs to be transported & distributed over long distances.

Electrical power is transported at very high voltages & needs to be stepped down even when it gets to industrial users. Illegal connections feeding off transformers make things worse. Vandalism doesn't help either.

As a country, we need the entire system strengthened not just increased generation.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#113 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 3:35:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
The recent blackout in Nairobi is a great lesson on why PRODUCTION can exceed CONSUMPTION when the TRANSMISSION and DISTRIBUTION are not up to par.

http://www.businessdaily...4/-/90cjoh/-/index.html

Massive under-investment spanning decades [since the Moi Error] means Kenya's grid is weak and cannot support increased production/generation of power that needs to be transported & distributed over long distances.

Electrical power is transported at very high voltages & needs to be stepped down even when it gets to industrial users. Illegal connections feeding off transformers make things worse. Vandalism doesn't help either.

As a country, we need the entire system strengthened not just increased generation.


Nowhere in that article has the writer mentioned anything to do with over supply affecting the "aging grid" which apparently is being upgraded by some Swiss company.


"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#114 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 6:59:22 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The recent blackout in Nairobi is a great lesson on why PRODUCTION can exceed CONSUMPTION when the TRANSMISSION and DISTRIBUTION are not up to par.

http://www.businessdaily...4/-/90cjoh/-/index.html

Massive under-investment spanning decades [since the Moi Error] means Kenya's grid is weak and cannot support increased production/generation of power that needs to be transported & distributed over long distances.

Electrical power is transported at very high voltages & needs to be stepped down even when it gets to industrial users. Illegal connections feeding off transformers make things worse. Vandalism doesn't help either.

As a country, we need the entire system strengthened not just increased generation.


Nowhere in that article has the writer mentioned anything to do with over supply affecting the "aging grid" which apparently is being upgraded by some Swiss company.


Supply doesn't affect a grid. The quality of a grid affects the ability to transport power from the source to the consumer. Why do you think 'over supply' affects an 'aging grid'?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#115 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 7:01:10 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
On batteries/storage from Tesla http://footprint2africa....e-africas-energy-supply/
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#116 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 2:38:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The recent blackout in Nairobi is a great lesson on why PRODUCTION can exceed CONSUMPTION when the TRANSMISSION and DISTRIBUTION are not up to par.

http://www.businessdaily...4/-/90cjoh/-/index.html

Massive under-investment spanning decades [since the Moi Error] means Kenya's grid is weak and cannot support increased production/generation of power that needs to be transported & distributed over long distances.

Electrical power is transported at very high voltages & needs to be stepped down even when it gets to industrial users. Illegal connections feeding off transformers make things worse. Vandalism doesn't help either.

As a country, we need the entire system strengthened not just increased generation.


Nowhere in that article has the writer mentioned anything to do with over supply affecting the "aging grid" which apparently is being upgraded by some Swiss company.


Supply doesn't affect a grid. The quality of a grid affects the ability to transport power from the source to the consumer. Why do you think 'over supply' affects an 'aging grid'?


Overload is more like it. Supply is totally different. The writer makes it look like Juja is the only substation, yet there are others...lessos, Tala etc. The Juja station is old yes and indeed it needs rehabilitation, but a power fault could be caused by lightening (expect many of those in the coming days), power surge...etc
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Othelo
#117 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 3:56:05 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
How then do we reconcile persistent backouts that occur hapa mashinani......... sometimes lasting whole days on end / almost feels like rationing!
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
instinct
#118 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 5:50:19 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Othelo wrote:
How then do we reconcile persistent backouts that occur hapa mashinani......... sometimes lasting whole days on end / almost feels like rationing!


My view is that KPLCs current problem is an architecture/design of its network. We're connecting too much load all over without a redesign of the trunk lines to manage the extra power being pushed through them. We're almost at South African level of chaos. Meanwhile KPLC and Kengen management are preoccupied with tendering. Wait till the rains fall and chickens will come home to roost. Power blackouts lasting days as they firefight outages all over.
VituVingiSana
#119 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 2:56:52 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
instinct wrote:
Othelo wrote:
How then do we reconcile persistent backouts that occur hapa mashinani......... sometimes lasting whole days on end / almost feels like rationing!


My view is that KPLCs current problem is an architecture/design of its network. We're connecting too much load all over without a redesign of the trunk lines to manage the extra power being pushed through them. We're almost at South African level of chaos. Meanwhile KPLC and Kengen management are preoccupied with tendering. Wait till the rains fall and chickens will come home to roost. Power blackouts lasting days as they firefight outages all over.

Electrical grids need to be 'balanced' and designing a grid is quite complex especially when KPLC has to deal with an existing grid and customers. KPLC can't shut down a grid for months to install or re-route a line. Transformers need to be upgraded whenever there's new construction. As flats replace houses, the demand for electricity on a transformer increases as does the pressure on the lines that supply the transformers.

Estates/projects like Tatu City will benefit from a brand-new grid that is designed with the project in mind.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
muandiwambeu
#120 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 7:34:55 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
Kengen growth is tied at the hip with Kenya economic growth booms and bursts cycles by design/default. Therefore, kengen is analogous to a terminally ill bed ridden or an infant tax payer paying taxes on the medical bills to improve health care when it's clear death will come beckoning before the tax is counted .Every year machines systems, grids and new power sources will be sought and be dropped to feed an ogre called e_con relegating kengen to fortune of economy performance. Once the e_con has plateaued, the Capex hungry kengen dream team will be left with issues of efficiencies and not effectiveness. that time kengen may cease to be a strategic gova's asset and shareholders will enjoy. So, when will Capex demand for kengen be rivaled by its earnings and spare some profit reserves enough to excite the market and spare us the lurking worry of capital demand inform of rit issues? When will that be? Is it 1, 2,3yrs or 10, 20---or say 100yrs? The closet someone has in attempting to answer that is in vision 2030 dream team. Where r kebatis to tells us how r we faring on this front? Do we have electric guzzlers like magnelev or bullet trains or electric/hybrid cars in our country so that we construct a few if not many nuclear powered plants and altogether ditch hydropowered plants since they are ineffective or a nema/ environmentalists guys have done environmental audit and condemned dams and there construction? How many silicone valleys or Tatu cities or how you power dependent institutions like military installations so far r in our economy. These of course will come n demand power. Decommissioning will probably be at a hefty cost so is nukes and that ultimately will require cash strapped kengen to Cash call. Actually for kengen it's a cash call since growth will catch kengen struggling between div. payout to please thirsty shareholders and the planners will always lag behind to keep their job skills relevant. If your not a hopeful of a middle economy or middle lyf economy you may as well not be a hopeful of kengen. Harvest time will come. Yes. By end of maturity or by cycles.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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