Wazua
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Bargains to buy from tomorrow???
Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Brother Cde, still waiting...  youcan'tstopusnow wrote:First quarter is nearing the end. Let's talk banks. Are they likely to bring their fourth quarter 2010 momentum into the new year? Cde, what do you estimate KCB posting as 1st quarter EPS? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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My apologies Comrade YCS... hadn't seen ur post earlier. Mmm..been adding on to this bank, i'm doing a net div.yield of 5.64% i'm a happy man. Moving on..KCBs Q1 2010 PAT (or was it PBT- i'm using my phone) rose only 5% so I expect it to be higher.probably from forex income, GoK Bonds, increased biz generally but mostly through drop in costs. My expectations for KCB this year r simple: modest business growth & further improvement of cost2income ratio. I'm not good at forecasting eps but with the aforementioned probable factors...KCB's super profits will be a matter of discussion in the August house soon.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Aguytrying wrote:Market is going down, below 4000 points, all the counters are falling. Public has lost interest in stocks. It doesn't all have to be doom and gloom during this time. Check out the following bargains. nic bank. Today at 45.00. A return to 49.00 and you've made some change. Albeit 5 %. Mumias had a low of 7.10 today- at 7.8 another 5% To be made. Kenya airways. At 32.00. Risky one but by the time its back to 38. You'll be up 20% or more. The percentage gains may seem small, but it beats the hell out of watching the market fall day in day out and all your counters seeing read. Nb. Purely spectalive purposes. The thoughts Expressed herein are my own, and any liability or gain resulting from them will be borne by the doer. Happy hunting Aguytrying wrote:Today i put my money where my mouth is. Picked up some arm at 155. T minus 4. Speculating is enthralling. Will i be burnt or come out unscathed. Time will tell My move went well, managed to sell ARM jana when the share closed at 170. Its a small gain, but my main aim is to stay awake and lively during this downturn(id rather not brand it names like bear, just yet) On my radar now... mumias at 7.00, co-op at 16.00(cant believe i missed that), kakuzi at 67.00, jubilee at 170, jubilee at 170. Its not a repetition, i had to say that one twice. And also total at 25.00...though gain there is too small. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@AguyTrying. I am still holding on to my ARM. I also got into Coop at 16.00-16.05 and picked some Mumias on Tuesday at 7.05. Might be quite hard to get Jubilee at 170 unless there's another panic. The chap who picked the lot of 2,000 at 170 was indeed VERY AWAKE!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/26/2011 Posts: 211 Location: Nairobi
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@ Aguy i think we can still nab Jubilee sub 160 its only a matter of time i believe.
Im trying to practise patience as a virtue during this bear, but at times i think i want to replace my patience with greed. The prices are just toooo enticing.......
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mwanahisa wrote:@AguyTrying. I am still holding on to my ARM. I also got into Coop at 16.00-16.05 and picked some Mumias on Tuesday at 7.05. Might be quite hard to get Jubilee at 170 unless there's another panic. The chap who picked the lot of 2,000 at 170 was indeed VERY AWAKE! What? i dont like you damn you're good. I wanted to pick up mumias and co-op, but i hadnt sold ARM. start an investing school my friend. Currently the market is too lively and strong and prices going up, nothing i can buy now. Jubilee would be so good to buy now, due to the impending results. keep it up. glad i,ve learned to be happier when prices are falling than the other way around The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Kirika wrote:@ Aguy i think we can still nab Jubilee sub 160 its only a matter of time i believe.
Im trying to practise patience as a virtue during this bear, but at times i think i want to replace my patience with greed. The prices are just toooo enticing....... Me too, even 170 ill gladly pay. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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It may be a little early to conclude, but judging by today's prices and the bid:ask spreads on a day when the market was in an upbeat mood, CFC Stanbic Holdings seems to be drifting towards its real value. I look forward to buying their Insurance Holdings when it lists if the price comes to the 5/= to 6/= range. mwanahisa wrote:@Kinyama(What a Name!),
Let me take a shot at answering your questions and put myself in the firing line while at it.
2. CFC Stanbic is NOT worth buying at the current price. I would rather buy it after the demerger. Earnings for the bank are lower than those for banks with smaller balance sheets i.e. DTB, NIC, I&M etc. After the demerger, it is possible for it to trade at a PE of 10 which would bring down its price to the 50s range. CFCIH (the Insurance Holding Co.) on the other hand should not trade above Kshs 10 given its EPS of 0.54. Actually, 10 would be a stretch. CONCLUSION. Wait!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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It may be a little early to conclude, but judging by today's prices and the bid:ask spreads on a day when the market was in an upbeat mood, CFC Stanbic Holdings seems to be drifting towards its real value. I look forward to buying their Insurance Holdings when it lists if the price comes to the 5/= to 6/= range. mwanahisa wrote:@Kinyama(What a Name!),
Let me take a shot at answering your questions and put myself in the firing line while at it.
2. CFC Stanbic is NOT worth buying at the current price. I would rather buy it after the demerger. Earnings for the bank are lower than those for banks with smaller balance sheets i.e. DTB, NIC, I&M etc. After the demerger, it is possible for it to trade at a PE of 10 which would bring down its price to the 50s range. CFCIH (the Insurance Holding Co.) on the other hand should not trade above Kshs 10 given its EPS of 0.54. Actually, 10 would be a stretch. CONCLUSION. Wait!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mwanahisa wrote:It may be a little early to conclude, but judging by today's prices and the bid:ask spreads on a day when the market was in an upbeat mood, CFC Stanbic Holdings seems to be drifting towards its real value. I look forward to buying their Insurance Holdings when it lists if the price comes to the 5/= to 6/= range. mwanahisa wrote:@Kinyama(What a Name!),
Let me take a shot at answering your questions and put myself in the firing line while at it.
2. CFC Stanbic is NOT worth buying at the current price. I would rather buy it after the demerger. Earnings for the bank are lower than those for banks with smaller balance sheets i.e. DTB, NIC, I&M etc. After the demerger, it is possible for it to trade at a PE of 10 which would bring down its price to the 50s range. CFCIH (the Insurance Holding Co.) on the other hand should not trade above Kshs 10 given its EPS of 0.54. Actually, 10 would be a stretch. CONCLUSION. Wait!!!! Given eps for insurance is 0.54, with a p/e of 10 (insurance companies tend to have even lower p/e's) thats 5.40/- share price. why would you buy at 5 to 6 bob. what are you seeing. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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@Aguytrying, I think I have just been lucky to some extent on my picks. So don't sweat it. Most of the time it's about going against the conventional wisdom of the market by getting into positions just when the market shows signs of turning. But it requires one to watch the market very closely and to have a fair amount of liquidity. But I also make my share of mistakes e.g. on KQ which I am currently holding at an average of about 34.50 on my most recent buys (I also have a long term position on it). But if I can get it right 6-7 times out of 10, I am happy. Aguytrying wrote:mwanahisa wrote:@AguyTrying. I am still holding on to my ARM. I also got into Coop at 16.00-16.05 and picked some Mumias on Tuesday at 7.05. Might be quite hard to get Jubilee at 170 unless there's another panic. The chap who picked the lot of 2,000 at 170 was indeed VERY AWAKE! What? i dont like you damn you're good. I wanted to pick up mumias and co-op, but i hadnt sold ARM. start an investing school my friend. Currently the market is too lively and strong and prices going up, nothing i can buy now. Jubilee would be so good to buy now, due to the impending results. keep it up. glad i,ve learned to be happier when prices are falling than the other way around
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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I may have come up with a price target a little prematurely, given that I still have to study the business a little more. However, at first glance it appears CFCIH has been seriously underperforming; given the level of assets under their command. With a more focused management under the ambit of Liberty insurance, I expect this to change. And, I can bet you a lot of heads are likely to roll to get the business into the right shape. The other aspect is technical. I do not expect that there will be too much liquidity on the counter, hence share price may fluctuate more than one might expect. Aguytrying wrote:Given eps for insurance is 0.54, with a p/e of 10 (insurance companies tend to have even lower p/e's) thats 5.40/- share price. why would you buy at 5 to 6 bob. what are you seeing.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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PKoli wrote:the deal wrote:will KCB ever get passed 23bob?...LMAO. Yes it will very soon. I am sure it is now getting institutional support. It should trade at no less than 27..Taking a conservative pe of 10. Let us wait for 1st Quater results Great call! It will be interesting to see at what level the share settles at. GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:PKoli wrote:the deal wrote:will KCB ever get passed 23bob?...LMAO. Yes it will very soon. I am sure it is now getting institutional support. It should trade at no less than 27..Taking a conservative pe of 10. Let us wait for 1st Quater results Great call! It will be interesting to see at what level the share settles at. guess what !!!!!!! we are are also laughing our arses off also coz it did. though i didnt expect it to rally in a down market (it look suspicious though) but hey if its rallyin w/ gud volume then so be it.... bought a truck load at 19.00 .u can imagine the feelin.
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/31/2008 Posts: 90
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Is this the same QW? QW25071985 Posted: Friday, April 01, 2011 11:24:11 AM Guyz can you stop this illusion.can u wake up and stop day dreamin. This stock is goin nowhere. I am very bearish right now i get really suspicous about any rally. QW25071985 wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:PKoli wrote:the deal wrote:will KCB ever get passed 23bob?...LMAO. Yes it will very soon. I am sure it is now getting institutional support. It should trade at no less than 27..Taking a conservative pe of 10. Let us wait for 1st Quater results Great call! It will be interesting to see at what level the share settles at. guess what !!!!!!! we are are also laughing our arses off also coz it did. though i didnt expect it to rally in a down market (it look suspicious though) but hey if its rallyin w/ gud volume then so be it.... bought a truck load at 19.00 .u can imagine the feelin.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@mwanahisa. I also like that strategy of picking up shares as they bottom out, or on their way there. Keep up the good work, learning alot from you. about cfcih, good insight, i hadn't thought of it that way. today, i tried getting kakuzi at 67-66. Some lucky chumps got. Will try again kesho. Also tpse at 61! The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Magnetic Touch, please don't bother! Tumezoea GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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Magnetic Touch wrote:Is this the same QW? QW25071985 Posted: Friday, April 01, 2011 11:24:11 AM Guyz can you stop this illusion.can u wake up and stop day dreamin. This stock is goin nowhere. I am very bearish right now i get really suspicous about any rally. QW25071985 wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:PKoli wrote:the deal wrote:will KCB ever get passed 23bob?...LMAO. Yes it will very soon. I am sure it is now getting institutional support. It should trade at no less than 27..Taking a conservative pe of 10. Let us wait for 1st Quater results Great call! It will be interesting to see at what level the share settles at. guess what !!!!!!! we are are also laughing our arses off also coz it did. though i didnt expect it to rally in a down market (it look suspicious though) but hey if its rallyin w/ gud volume then so be it.... bought a truck load at 19.00 .u can imagine the feelin.  . but i am still bearish on the market and k.c.b rallyin doesnt mean anything or change my bearishness and wazuas you shld stop trackin what i am sayin.you make me look like a mad man..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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hahaha QW big caps and qw small caps..which one is you?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Equity trades more than a million shares at 28 bob about 15 mins to market close then immediately after the demand goes down to 26.75! I pity the guys who've bought at that price, most likely foreigners. All indications are that the stock should dip tomorrow to about 27 from todays average close of 28! @SufficientlyP
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