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KPLC rights interim report -massive under subscription
Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/8/2011 Posts: 48 Location: muranga
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ngapat wrote:Aguytrying wrote:With a rights issue and split. The dynamics of this share have been changing week in week out.
Now that the (highly contested by some as "undersubscribed") results are done and dusted, new shares start trading on 24th Jan(next monday)
, where do we see this share by next week? In terms of demand, supply, profit taking and how far down it can be pushed (or up, shares be crazy!)
Regards, Aguy. looking to add more @22 when rights start trading on nse As my entry point was 21.50.... am expecting the supply + demand to push this share down....below my entry point..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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maskana wrote:As my entry point was 21.50.... am expecting the supply + demand to push this share down....below my entry point.. If you bought from the mkt and not the rights you should have sold at 25.5 but I'd advice you sell now at 24 if your holding is substantial enough and buy back with the new proceeds @21.50-21.75. I'm sure you'll get. Sold mine at 25.25 and I'm waiting.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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2012 wrote:maskana wrote:As my entry point was 21.50.... am expecting the supply + demand to push this share down....below my entry point.. If you bought from the mkt and not the rights you should have sold at 25.5 but I'd advice you sell now at 24 if your holding is substantial enough and buy back with the new proceeds @21.50-21.75. I'm sure you'll get. Sold mine at 25.25 and I'm waiting. @2012. You are playing this so well. I plan to sell on monday at 23.50-24.00. And buy back at around 22.00. Incase the dilution is too rapid, ill hold what i have. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:@2012. You are playing this so well. I plan to sell on monday at 23.50-24.00. And buy back at around 22.00. Incase the dilution is too rapid, ill hold what i have. I only hope to increase my holding to the maximum without digging into my pockets which are dry anyway. I have a good adviser too who's doing the same. Then we hold and forget for 5yrs. I don't usually do this and would never do it under other circumstances. On a different note, what is happening to Steve Jobs? Is he taking his final bow?
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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All this sell now, buy later is for traders/speculators. I am sure it works for some... I tend to look for solid firms with good management. It's quite simple for me... I see demand has grown. Supply is increasing [tho slower than demand]. Fewer blackouts means better reliability. KPLC plans to go after illegal connections which is not easy but commendable. I see the (diluted) EPS in 2010-11 being similar to 2009-10 even with many more shares. The calcs have been provided earlier so I don't want to repeat them but the Pref Divs should have been deducted from the PAT attributable to Ordinary Shareholders... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Iam speculating on this one, because my holding here is small. In the near future ill be value investors like you guys. Nice to have local mentors in that discipline here. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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@Maskana,
Your assumption is that .... due to high supply from 24th Jan 2011 and low demand the price will drop to circa sh 21.50.
You could be right... I guess many other people expect the same.
However..... If KPLC releases the half year results.... which they might do anytime.... this may affect the demand supply equation.... and hence the price movement.
That notwithstanding....from the market vibes.... there could be huge demand for the shares when the rights come to the market...as some players would want to participate then....so lets wait and see...it will be interesting.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@liv. Kplc H1. By anytime, you mean like when? Thanks for reminding, about this. This could certainly change the scenario. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182
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i think an entry level of 22 would be such a good bargain. 21.5 would be made in heaven kind of a deal. Thats my assumption though may go lower may NOT even move. 24th is the d day. LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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kyt wrote:i think an entry level of 22 would be such a good bargain. I think 22 is more than guaranteed. A person who bought at 19.5 would be making about 13% in one month, so why not? Guys get money and place your orders. I guarantee you that even with excellent results it will still come down.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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1H 2010-11 Results will probably be released mid-late Feb [not audited so easier to prepare]... They will be highly anticipated! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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@Aguytrying,
KPLC H1 results & dividends could be announced anytime.... H1 ended on 31 Dec 2010...so they can announce anytime before or after 24th Jan 2011.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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Liv wrote:@Aguytrying,
KPLC H1 results & dividends could be announced anytime.... H1 ended on 31 Dec 2010...so they can announce anytime before or after 24th Jan 2011. 24th Jan is ambitious... but I will not discount what @Liv reveals about KPLC... Any indication the amount/EPS? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Liv wrote:@Aguytrying,
KPLC H1 results & dividends could be announced anytime.... H1 ended on 31 Dec 2010...so they can announce anytime before or after 24th Jan 2011. 24th Jan is ambitious... but I will not discount what @Liv reveals about KPLC... Any indication the amount/EPS? @VVS the results will be announced between late january and early february... They better announce a dividend and a profit growth otherwise we are in for a rough ride on the share Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,215 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Liv wrote:@Aguytrying,
KPLC H1 results & dividends could be announced anytime.... H1 ended on 31 Dec 2010...so they can announce anytime before or after 24th Jan 2011. 24th Jan is ambitious... but I will not discount what @Liv reveals about KPLC... Any indication the amount/EPS? @VVS the results will be announced between late january and early february... They better announce a dividend and a profit growth otherwise we are in for a rough ride on the share I am confident the results will be much better vs last year... Not sure of they will pay an interim dividend... They should not to reduce admin costs.. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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VituVingiSana wrote:guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Liv wrote:@Aguytrying,
KPLC H1 results & dividends could be announced anytime.... H1 ended on 31 Dec 2010...so they can announce anytime before or after 24th Jan 2011. 24th Jan is ambitious... but I will not discount what @Liv reveals about KPLC... Any indication the amount/EPS? @VVS the results will be announced between late january and early february... They better announce a dividend and a profit growth otherwise we are in for a rough ride on the share I am confident the results will be much better vs last year... Not sure of they will pay an interim dividend... They should not to reduce admin costs.. January early Feb is a little ambitious for KPLC to announce the results. Most likely early March.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/8/2011 Posts: 48 Location: muranga
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2012 wrote:maskana wrote:As my entry point was 21.50.... am expecting the supply + demand to push this share down....below my entry point.. If you bought from the mkt and not the rights you should have sold at 25.5 but I'd advice you sell now at 24 if your holding is substantial enough and buy back with the new proceeds @21.50-21.75. I'm sure you'll get. Sold mine at 25.25 and I'm waiting. @2012 thanks, that never cross my mind,what am looking for is positioning myself on this bus...and when good returns come will definitely sell.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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@maskana,
Given most of the buyers were institutional investors, do you expect the price to go that low when the rights are finally uploaded and start trading? I expect a temporary drop to just about 23 and then we will see demand coming in with huge supplies. There might be no merit in waiting for KPLC at 21!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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PKoli wrote:@maskana,
Given most of the buyers were institutional investors, do you expect the price to go that low when the rights are finally uploaded and start trading? Wanna bet? I can bet you it will go lower than 21.75. It's not only institutional investors who bought there were very many individual, chamas, international investors and speculators too. So will you make this bet so you can start hiding in lesser threads like our very own qw.... 
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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2012 wrote:PKoli wrote:@maskana,
Given most of the buyers were institutional investors, do you expect the price to go that low when the rights are finally uploaded and start trading? Wanna bet? I can bet you it will go lower than 21.75. It's not only institutional investors who bought there were very many individual, chamas, international investors and speculators too. So will you make this bet so you can start hiding in lesser threads like our very own qw.... @2012, No I do not bet, discovered a number of guys do not honour their bets. Let us watch to see how the stock performs come Jan 24th! Good luck if you are eyeing it at around 21.75 bob!
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